PROGRESS OF THE WAR

Dominion, Volume 8, Issue 2541, 16 August 1915, Page 4

PROGRESS OF THE WAR

Taken in its aggregate effect, the war news in hand at time of writing goes some way towards answering the, question—one which dominates all other# at. tho monicr,t~iio lo how the Germans are likely, to p.rcss

their invasion of Eussia. The general effect of to-day's news is to suggest that tho invasion is nearing its practicable limits, anl that, as one correspondent puts it, the worst fury of the storm is over. Though they arc supported by a certain amount of evidence—suggestive and definite as far as it goes, but not conclusiveopinions and predictions of this kind can only he tentatively entertained. It has been shown within the last day or two that opinion in some quarters in Eussia which cannot be classed as ill-informed, is not prepaied to dismiss as incredible the possibility that the Germans may seek to include Petrograd within the scope of their invasion. Between an arrested invasion and a Gerihan advance against Petrograd there is so wide a .margin that it might, seem reasonable to demand a very definite opinion one way or the other from the correspondents and others who essay to explain the situation. But the truth is that the shaping of the Eastern campaign in the near future does not depend so much upon ultimate limitations and possibilities as upon the lino of policy adopted by the German General Staff.

Though they can exercise'it only at a price—a price in men' and material that may weaken them for the coming conflict in France and Flanders—there is no doubt that a considerable measure of initiative rests with the Germans where the Eastern campaign is concerned. Having evacuated one great defensive line—successfully, as is shown, to-day —the Russians are now more or less definitely menaced upon a line further back. Current predictions of a contemplated German offensive in France and Flanders are so vaguely worded that they would hardly deserve attention were it not reasonable to suppose that the Germans are making some provision to ,deal with the mighty force organising against them in the Western theatre. . The possibility of a continued German aggression on the Eastern front, on the other hand, rests upon the fact that armies are in position to do tho work. The new Russian line is menaced on both flanks, and if the menace is lifted it will be for the reason that the Germans fed it necessary to conserve their remaining strength for the coming struggle in the West. It is suggested to-day that this, position has been reached or is about to be reached. The suggestion gains in probability from what is known about the strength and preparations of the Western Allhs, but it is too Eoon to take it definitely for granted that the Germans have given up all present hope of the further aggr'ession for which their armies in the Baltic Provinces,' in Southern Poland, and in the intermediate areas, are posted. * * » *

Although it deals with tho fortunes of a Russian retreat, to-day's news of actual events in the Eastern campaign is uniformly good. In the first place, it is definitely shown that the most critical operations of tho retreat, operations in whioh the retiring forces were exposed to extreme danger of being enveloped or destroyed, have been carried out with brilliant success. The dangerous wedge extending forward from tho Russian line in Central Poland, which was mentioned in recent notes, no longer exists. From North to Southern Poland tho Russian armies are now arrayed on a long easy curve, with its convex face presented to the'enemy. References in a German message to the capture of a Russian forco in the neighbourhood of the fortress of Novo Georgvicsk, north-west of Warsaw, have no bearing upon the present stage of the' Russian retreat. They are either belated or relate to the capture of portion of a dfitail force left behind to delay the enemy by blocking tho passage of the Vistula at Novo Georgvicsk for a time and so assist in safeguarding the general retreat. * * * *

Apart from tho fact that the worst difficulties and dangers of the retreat have been surmounted and that the Russian armies ' in_ Central Poland are now in a position of relative security, the burden of the news in hand is that if the Germans are making any progress at present in the areas of their heaviest attacks they aro progressing very slowly. For some time past tho evacuation of great areas east of the Vistula has overshadowed the stand made by the Russians - ' on other sections of the front. But now that the armies retiring from the Vistula are well ontheir way towards their new line, tho hold-up of tho Germans in the Baltic Provinces, the stubborn defence of Kovno and other sections of the Nicir.en front, opposite the East Prussian frontier, and the stand made by the Russians in Southern Poland, assume their true ; importance. The broad position is that while retreating in Central Poland the Russians have been stubbornly defending the ilanks of a new defensive line which may yet bo made good. Their defence of these northern and southern areas is still unbroken, and their central armies aro no longer so imminently threatened as they havo been of late. The great enveloping movement by which the Germans attempted to cut off and surround the Russian Vistula armies has failed, and they have now to choose between reverting to less aggressive tactics, in preparation for a withdrawal of force to the Western theatre, or embarking upon ne\v operations m extension of their invasion. 0 Q evidence available, if tho Germans adopt the latter alternative they are likely to find their new operations even more costly and arduous than those of past passages in the Eastern campaign- # # - * * In the Baltic Provinces during the last few days the Russians appear to have materially improved their position. _ The general position in this region has been often touohed upon. The presence of strong German forces in the area between the northern- frontier _ of East Prussia- and the Gulf of Riga, not only constitutes a possible threat against Petrograd, 300 miles away on the north, but a more immediate throat against import-ant Russian railways to the cast and south. A south-eastward advance of 50 miles would bring the Germans to the junction of Vilna, and compel a further Russian retreat, and the capture of tho fortress of Kovno, which the enemy are now attacking, would give them command of the direct eastward approach to Vilna. from the. East Prussian frontier. It is now reported that the Russians havo successfully attacked the Germans in the Baltic Provinces at a point about 50 miles north of Kovno, aud that the offensive may develop. On the other hand the enemy appear to be methodically developing the siege of Kovno. Several determined attacks on the fortress have been beaten off with nlaiighter, add the j Eutsiaus arc, still in possession of 1

the outlying entrenchments. The Germans, however, arc said to be now bringing up siege howitzers of the largest size and other heavy artillery, and it is rather doubtful if the Russian defenec can be maintained against suoh weapons. * * * k

A MUCH more satisfactory state of affairs is disclosed irv Southern Poland. Here General von Mackenskn has been foiled and driven hack in a tremendous effort to pierce tho llussian line, and since he is operating ahead of a wide tract of rail less and baclly-roaded country he is much less likely to retrieve his failure than the commanders who are addressing themselves to the reduction of Kovn'o, and the development of the campaign in the nortn.

Impossible as it is to take it for granted that the Germans will now slacken in their efforts in the Eastern campaign in order to concentrate on the problems of the opposite front, it cannot be doubted that .they are furnished with a strong incentive to adopt this policy by the losses they have suffered and are likely to suffer as the invasion develops. It is fairly evident that the Russians have passed the stage of willing retreat, a,nd are now minded to profit by the enemy's transport difficulties, which will' to some extent compensate for their own weakness in artillery, and grimly contest each fresh advance. Kovno may fall, but to judge by the unsuccessful attack so far made upon it the place will be dearly bought. It is quite possible that the Germans may penetrate deeper info llussia, but, as a correspondent points out, they may very well find themselves in the llussian winter before they reach a satisfactory defensive lino whioh could be easily held, and so leave them free to send their best troops to the Western front. In a word, the Eastern campaign seems more likely to make indefinite calls upon German l-esourccs than to yield commensurate returns for the tremendous exertions which it demands. The' Russians, of course, ajfo suffering heavily, but they are levying a terrible toll upon the invaders.

It is suggested by the London Spectator that the Germans may contemplate an advance, against Petrcgrad not as part of a great enveloping movement but as a separate enterprise, an advance along the coast being supported by the German fleet. Here speculation is more or less in the air, but it is plain that unless' the whole of tho Bussian forces were kept in play an enterprise of this nature would be beset with perils. In any case powerful naval cp-opcration would be an essential ingredient of success, and - late events have shown that after, a year of war the Germans cannot yet boast an effective naval command of tho Baltic. There is an unofficial message to-day which declares that in an action near the island of Osel (at the mouth of the Gulf of Kiga) the Germaus lost one large' cruiser and had several others seriously damaged; This is represented as an unsuccessful ' attempt to bottle up the Russian fleet in the Gulf of Finland and the northern roach of tihe Baltic, and it is in keeping with other events which :havo been more definitely reported of late.

A number of reports to-day deal with tho.Dardanelles campaign, but they leave the exact nature of the important operations recently carried out moro or less in doubt. A Paris communique, however, indicates that the Australians and New Zealanders made a successful landing in Suvla Bay, some miles north of the most northerly position they had previous held. An inland advance from this point no doubt accounts for the greater part of a gain of ground,' making up the nearly trebled area of- occupation mentioned by General Hamilton. In face of the explicit, though brief, British official reports, a Berlin communique,• alleging that tho landing at Suvla Ba-y was repulsed, is no doubt as inaccurate as the claim mado by the Turks that they captured some trenches near Seddul Ba.hr, a pla-cc they have not" been within miles of for months. With the progress made by tho force landed- on the mainland north of Bulair reports do not deal at time of writing.

The brief accounts _ available of the.latest Zeppelin raid on the East Coast of England go to strengthen the idea that the time when the airraiders could shower bombs with impunity has passed. No airship was actually brought down on this occasion by the aircraft patrols, but one is believed to have been damaged by the mobile anti-aircraft section. The nature pf the casualty list and of the damage done sufficiently attests that no military object was achieved by the raiding airships. Tho position reached seems to be that the Zeppolins can no longer indulge even in indiscriminate murder without incurring a certain danger from the organised defence. ** * •

No event of note in the Western campaign is reported at time of writing. As to tho Austro-Italia-n campaign news tolls'of a steadilydeveloping Italian offensive and of a number of detail successcs, but the forcing of the Isonzo line is not yet an accomplished fact.!