PROGRESS OF THE WAR

Dominion, Volume 8, Issue 2540, 14 August 1915, Page 4

PROGRESS OF THE WAR

Widely divergent stories are still current as to the probable trend of events in the war in the near future, and the result is to leave matters somewhat open. One message declares that a German order of the day has been published in Belgium informing the troops that: "Flanders is ours. Our work is practically finished in tho East. Wo are about to begin (shades of Mr. Snodgkasb !) in the West. Peace 'is certain in October." In Russia, howevor, a theory is being canvassed to some extent that the German objcctivo in tho Eastern campaign is Petrograd. Tho idea is put forward by a Russian officer (General Menschikoff) in tho Novoe Yrcmya with the comment that the distance does not present insuperable difficulties, and that it is necessary boldly to recognise tho fact. This may be wise counsel, but it is not easy to imagine, the German operations extended on tho scale that an occupation of tho Russian capital would involve. Tho Germans arc now driving the Russians back upon a line (extending _ from the Baltic Provinces to Galicia), which is about six hundred miles long from point to point. The present fighting lino is much longer. Striking at Petrograd, tho Germans would have to extend a line with a minimum length already of 600 miles, northward for another three hundred miles. '

It is hardly necessary to instance the tremendous difficulties of such an enterprise. A lino nearly a thousand miles long cannot do fortified throughout its length like the German Western front, nor can it be defended at all vulnerable points by a heavy concentration of artillery. Even if the Germans repair railways and restore bridges damaged and blown up by the Russians, problems of transport in Poland and the Baltic Provinces will entail an enormous drain upon their resources, and it may be expected that when the Russians have overcome the difficulties of their present retreat they will to able to effectively harrass and attack the enemy at many points. Tnero does not seem to be any prospect at present of the Germans being able to contain the Russians with reduced forces, which is supposed .to bo the end they aro aiming at, and if they move north on Petrograd that prospect will definitely disappear. If the unexpected happens and tho Germans contrive to reach Petrograd, though they will hayo invaded an enormous area, they will still relatively speaking bo in occupation of only the western fringe of Russia. It is a thousand miles from Petrograd to tho Ural Mountains, and beyond the Urals lies tho vast area of Siberia. All things considered, the projected extension of tho German invasion of Russia might bo deemed venturesome, even if. there were no struggle for supremacy on Ibo vVist,ern front to bo prepared for, arid the position actually existing ou tho West makes strongly against any such enterprise being attempted. Tho Novoe Vremya expresses the opinion that an advance against Petrograd is unlikely unless tho Germans ettain command of the Baltic, and vvhi.'o a strong forcc of submarines is. available that should bo no easy matter.

It is likely that sorao important details are wanting from the story of the Russian retreat in Poland as it is told by messages so far received. The Russian line, as far as it can bo picked out on the map from these messages, runs almost duo south from the Baltic Provinces for about 200 m'iles, then south-west for nearly 150 miles to the Vistula north of Warsaw. Then, after following the Vistula for about thirty miles to tho neighbourhood of Warsaw it turns sharply east-south-east and reaches the River Bug 37 miles south of Brest Litowsk, which place is 120 miles east of Warsaw. In_ its remaining course the Russian lino runs south and a little east through Southern Poland and into and through Eastern Galieia. In other words, the Russians in Central Poland are shown to be still occupying a long narrow wedge with its point only a few miles east of the front from which the retirement began, ;>nd resting at or near the. fortress of Novo Georgviesk, on the Vistula northwest of Warsaw, and its base on the line to which the 'retirement is being made. The lines of course are irregular, but this is tho general position shown. The continued occupation of such a long narrow wedgo as has been described ■is of course exceedingly dangerous on account of the ease with which it may bo attacked and tho extent to which forces occupying its interior area are cramped in manoeuvring. It is probable that tho Russian withdrawal from tho point and forward area of tho wedge is much further advauced than can be ascertained with certainty from the reports in hand. « * » »

Incomplete as tho news is, thero need not be much doubt on the point because the Russians as yet have an open lino of retreat, and to leave troops in occupation of an exposed salient when a general retreat is in progress would simply be to throw them away. There is one reservation to bo made. The Russian commander may have left a garrison in tho fortress of Novo Georgviesk, which commands the passage of the _ Vistula north-west of Warsaw. Against such artillery as the enemy can bring to bear the fortress cannot be expected to offer any prolonged resistance, but its- defence would block tho river for a time. If it has been garrisoned the garrison has been deliberately sacrificed in order to delay and hamper the enemy as much as possible. * * " *

Reports available at time of writing do not clear up the position at the point of this great wedgo which was lately occupied by the Russians, but the Germans are shown _ be heavily attacking tho northern sido of tho wedge, and also its southern sido near its junction with the lino of battle running south. The importance of these, attacks depends upon tho progress made by the Russians in their sctrcat. Tho aim of tho enemy is, of coursc, to break through the sides of the wntljse stnd out on nemo of tho

havo made a good deal of headway in their attacks, but as yet have not accomplished any coup of that description. On what is known of tho facts, the Russians are not yet out of danger, but, as has been said, their rotrcat may be further advanced than the reports show, and their danger diminishes with cach movement that brings them nearer to a straightened lino of battle.

Detailed reports have yet to arrive (at time of writing) of the recent big developments at the Dardanelles, but references in the foreign Press all emphasise the importance" of what has taken place, and give prominence to tho part played by the Australians and Now Zealanders in enlarging their area of occupation ou the western side of the Gallipoli Peninsula, Tho whole Italian Press, it is reported, praises the valour of the Australians and New Zealanders at Anzac, and speaks of their victory as ono of the most noteworthy successes of the campaign. Delay in furnishing a detailed official report is no doubt accounted for by tho fact that important operations are still in full progress. One Athens message indicates that the Turks have made a violent counter-attack upon the positions lately won by the colonial troops, and another report i states that the enemy are. moving guns from the Isthmus of Bulair to meet tho attack from the new point of landing on tho mainland to tho north. This would imply that the Turkish defences are already feeling the strain of the new developments, for the defences of a key position like Bulair would not be weakened save under the spur of pressing emergency. * * * *

Late news from the Western front tells mainly of heavy artillery fighting and the repulse of German attacks. In the Argonne. forest tho French have won back some of tho ground occupied by tho Germans within the last day or two. A statement by tho French Under-Secretary for Munitions, in which ho describes the efforts France is making to increase the output of munitions, em; phasises tho pointy that the present timo is one of waiting and of preparation for vastly more important operations than are now,in progress.

If tho statement credited to the Bulgarian Prime Minister can be accepted with faith much of the mystery that has lately enveloped the Balkan situation, and its worst dangers, disappear. Though it is made with a frankness that borders on oynicism, the announcement that Bulgaria is willing to fight on the side of the Entente if given Servian Macedonia, is no surprise. It is much more interesting; and important to havo an official statement that while Bulgaria is openly negotiating with both parties she is negotiating with the Central Empires only in regard to continued neutrality, whereas she is willing to enter into full military co-opcration with the Entente, for considerations received. This certainly indicates an outlook upon war that is rather out of date in the Western world, but it is more to the point that M. Radoslavoff possibly implies, though he does not say it in so many words, that Bulgaria., while willing to traffic within limits for her national advantage, is perfectly capable of drawing a clear distinction botweeni the ruling policy of the Entente and that of the Central Empires in reference to the Balkans. This point is elaborated by M. Ristitch (bervian Ambassador at Rome), who states that Bulgaria had (ho does not say has) fully decided to do nothing and. that only one event would move her and the other neutral Balkan States: an Austro-Gcrman attempt to traverse Servia to assist the Turks. This would imperil the existence of all tho Balkan States and would impel Bulgaria and Rumania to como to the rescue.

To the Austro-Germans Bulgarian neutrality, or "benevolent neutrality," means an unopposed passage of Austro-Germans through Bulgaria. to Turkey, but unless M. Ilisiitch is very much astray Bulgaria regards neutrality in a decidedly different light. In support of his opinion there is the vital fact that the policy of the Entcntcaims as definitely at the preservation of Balkan nationalities as that of Austria and Germany aims at the extinction of these nationalities and the extension of the Germanic boundaries to the Aegean Sea. The danger has been that Bulgaria might bo so far blinded by her disputes with her neighbours as to ignore the peril which menaces the whole of the Balkan States. To-day's, news suggests that it is as clearly recognised in Bulgaria as elsewhere that _ if the Austro-Germans succeeded in advancing through the Balkan Peninsula into Turkey, only an Entente victory would sayo the Balkan States from being permanently, swallowed whole.