PROGRESS OF THE WAR

Dominion, Volume 8, Issue 2529, 2 August 1915, Page 4

PROGRESS OF THE WAR

These can no longer be any doubt that Warsaw is in German hands, or soon will be, though at time of writing a definite announcement to that effect is still awaited. A mass of news deals with tho situation in the Eastern theatre, but some of it tends rather 'to obscure than to explain- the position. The central fact is clear, however, that the Eussian armies are in retreat from the Vistula and from part of their line in Southern Poland (east from the Vistula), and are fighting a great rearguard battle—or rather series of battles—while the Germans, as one correspondent puts it, a.re hurling themselves like a pack of wolves on the Eussian rearguards. It is not possible, on tho message in hand, to say how fail' the retreat has gone or whether it is likely to be carried out successfully and without undue loss.. In the main ■ both _ Eussian and onemy accounts of detail actions merely describe incidents inevitable in such a great retirement 'as the Eussian -armies are making, and do not deal with tho .'operations at a vory advanced stago in their progress. An official message from Petrograd—one of the latest received—speaks of ,a. successful Russian resistance on tho Narew, north of Warsaw, but it states also that tho enemy have advanced across tho Vistula and in Southern Poland. This being so there is no reason to doubt tho truth of enemy reports suoh as those which state that Lublin (a town on the Ivangorod railway, 30 miles east of the Vistula) has been entered, and that the Ausfcro Germans are advancing north on a 75-mile front, east from-the Vistula, in Southern Poland.

The correspondents who deal at length with' the Russian retirement uniformly recognise that the situation of the retreating armies is one of great peril. Armies retiring on a long front, before a vigorous pursuit, are necessarily exposed -to peril, and the position of the Russians is made worse by the fact that strong German forces in the Baltic Provinces and in Southern Poland are threatening the main railways which now form vital links in the Russian communications, and will still do so if the retirement is successfully completed and the Russians succeed in establishing themselves ' on a new front well to the east of that from which _ they are ; now retreating. Tho lino upon which the Russians are falling back —or at all events the one upon which their future operations will be based, assuming a, successful retreat—stretches from Brest Litowsk (a fortress 120 miles due cast of Warsaw) north to the Baltic Provinces, by way of tho fortresses of Grodno and Kovno, _ opposite tho East Prussian frontier, and south to the frontier of Galicia and Poland and beyond the frontier into Eastern Galicia, It will be noticed that tho Austrians admit a reverse at Sokal, just south of the frontier on the line described. This may be aeccpted tentatively as an indication that the Russians intend to retain a fnutliold ill tliK Bsijfhljum'" jtowi ol floJsaJi wfeffl jeiy- aowrlim.

is established. The operations under way involve the withdrawal of the Russian troops from a curved lino bulging forward into Poland, with Warsaw near the forward extremity of the curve, to an approximately straight line (running north -and south) 120 miles to the cast. * * * «

The absence, as yet, of definite news covering the main facts of the retreat is easily to be accounted for by the extreme tension which must obtain in the area of operations. As has been said, the Russians arc exposed not only to tho ordinary perils incidental to a general retreat, hut to the additional danger that the enemy may succeed in reaching their vital lines of communication in the Baltic Provinces, or further south. Tho principal railway serving the llussian northern armies runs from Petrograd by way of Vilna and the fortress of Grodno (which should form a. buttress in the new front) to Warsaw. Another very important line, also connected with Warsaw, runs from- Brest Litowsk north-east to Minsk, and on to Moscow. From the latter line according to a German account, General von Mackensen (commanding the Austro-German _ forces in Southern Poland) is distant only three days' march, and General von Bulow, 'in tho Baltic Provinces, can bo at no greater distance from the Petrograd-vilna-Warsaw railway. Besides conducting an retreat from Warsaw and the Vistula, tho Grand Duke Nicholas is thus called upon to stem General von Mackensen's attack in Southern Poland, and that of General von Bulow in the Baltic Provinces. If the enemy gained a footing astride the Petrograd-Warsaw railway in the north or the Brest-Litowsk-Mos-cow line further sojith, the result could only bo disastrous to the Russians.

It is easy enough, on the facts as they appear, to understand the measure of misgiving expressed by the London Times correspondent, who remarks that the only doubtful point is whether the Russian retirement can be successfully carried out. At the same time it is no doubt true, as other correspondents remark, that the Russians are carrying out a planned retirement, according to programme. Tho uncertainty that has obtained as to whether or not the Russians would succeccl in holding tho Vistula line cannot have existed in the minds of the Russian General Staff. The retreat in progress has been deliberately planned because guns and ' munitions could not be obtained. The fact that it has been deliberately planned, and what is known df tho indomitable valour with which Russian troops have fought both in offensive and defensive w:ir, encourage a hope thai the Grand Duke Nicholas may succeed in safely withdrawing i his armies from the perils by which they are now beset, and establishing them on a new line. That the retreat should be carried out without loss is not to be expected, but it is riot_ unreasonable to hope that the Russian forces may bo extricated from their present difficulties substantially intact. * * * »

A great deal will depend upon tho extent to which tho Russians can impede the Gorman adiVvncc by destroying railways and other means of transport in tho area; they aro. evacuating, and by removing or destroying supplies. AVarsaw in its former state would have been a rich prize, for it was used by the Russians as their main advanced depot, and was heavily stocked with military supplies. It is stated, however, that all things useful to the enemy ; have been removed _ from tho city, and as to population only greybeards, women, and childreii remain. Crops in the country vacated havo also been destroyed. No mention is made of the destruction of the railway bridges over the Vistula, at Warsaw and Ivangorod, or of railways which would assist the German advance, but the Russians know how to sacrifice their own territory when it is necessary to impose difficulties upon an invader, and it. is likely that they have not spared the hand of destruction. Tho German statement that General von Mackensen is only' three days' march from 'Brest Litowsk, and the railway it covers, may be correct enough so far as distance is concerned, but' it may bo assumed that General von Mackensen's army will take much more than three days to cover the distance if it covers it at all.

The belief expressed in some messages that an early German offensive in tho Western - theatre is in prospect is no' doubt quite reasonable, but something must depend upon the degree of success achieved by the enemy on the opposite front. It has first of all to bo determined whether the Eussians can retire unbroken to a new front, and the transfer of any considerable section of toe German forces to the Western theatre must no doubt await some such definite development. Meantime a measui'o of uncertainty obtains and some diversity of opinion apparently exists even as to tho volumo of the force employed to defeat tho Eussians. The belief is expressed by a Daily Chronicle correspondent that tho Germans are holding their Western line with nob more than 1,500,000 men, implying that a much greater number are employed in the opposite theatre, while a. Times correspondent speaks of two million Germans on tho Western front and of "nea.rly half" tho available Gorman armies being employed against the Eussians. However, it cannot be doubted that the Germans havo weakened their forces ill tho West in order to thrust back the Russians, and tho probability is that as soon as it is joossiblo to hold the Eastern front with 'reduced forces they will strike a blow in the other main theatre.

An attempt to break the power of the Western Allies would be a normal sequel'to the present operations in the Eastern theatre. It is remarked by a Petrograd correspondent (quoting a Russian officer) that the Germans guaranteed themselves by constructing a triple line of fortifications in the Western theatre against a general Anglo-French advance whilo they were carrying out their operations on the Eastern front. This no doubt supplies the explanation of the comparative inaction of the Western Allies while Russia was putting up her magnificent fight under the terrible odds imposed by inadequate equipment. Behind their present Western line the Germans have 'other lines which could be held even should the lino upon which they arc now established become untenable. As has been pointed out before, uo partial victory against the Germans in the West would havo assisted the Russians, and such a victory might easily have involved a wasteful expenditure of tiio wlMsngfih the Allies arc Imiicljng t jig to erdp ta A dggUiiTQ yjiq.

tory. To this may be added that whatever the issue of the coming struggle on the Western front may be, the ohances of the Allies .are in no way diminished by the fact that the Germans remain on their present line. They would be more formidable on a- shorter line.

A line of British trenohes in the area east of Ypres has been carried by the Germans, but in the main detail news of operations in the Western theatre indicates a state almost 'of stagnation as compared with the storm of battle on the opposite front. Suggestions are not wanting, however, that the surface calm in the West is the calm that precedes the storm. Allied aircraft have been attacking German depots and lines of communication over an extended area, but few details arc given, though it is indicated that the attacks were important and successful, and that all tho aeroplanes engaged returned safely. Fighting on tho mountain frontiers of Alsaco has slowed down, but it is stated that in this area ; the French, established in strong positions, arc in expectation of a big German attack. For the Gerinans tho importance of Alsace is that it is the only section of tho front on which tho Allies ai'c within striking distance of the Rhine, the ultimate line of German defenco on the West. .

Some importance must be attached to the statement of the Bulgarian Prime Minister (M. Hadoslavoff), in an interview published in a Paris newspaper, that the Entente can secure Bulgaria's assistance if Servia restofes that portion of Macedonia which Bulgaria claims. This should be no insuperable stumblingblock considering Servia's prospective gains of territory on the Adriatic. The pronouncement of the Prime Minister of Bulgaria is of course all the : more notable from being made at a critical period in tho Russian campaign, Noting also that Entente * negotiations with Rumania are reported to be progressing satisfactorily, it may be said that the outlook in the Balkans (assuming that the news quoted is reliable) is much more promising than it has been for some time past.

The plight to which Russia is reduced on account of lack of supplies makes tho Dardanelles campaign more than ever important. Archangel and Vladivostock are probably the only ports through which supplies can be obtained as matters stand, and both arc closed by ice in winter. The opening of, the' Dardanelles, with or without Balkan co-operation, would so far to restore the position Russia lias lost in her main campaign. Sho thus has the strongest inducement both to seek the eo-operatioil of Balkan countries, now neutral, which would so greatly facilitate the conquest of Turkey, and, if she can spare the force, to herself attack Turkey by way of the Black Sea..

News from the Dardanelles (at time of writing) deals with no very late event, but interesting light is thrown upon some of the past passages of the campaign;