PROGRESS OF THE WAR

Dominion, Volume 8, Issue 2525, 28 July 1915, Page 6

PROGRESS OF THE WAR

An event taking clear shapo in to-day's'war is the German crossing of the River Narew, which has hitherto constituted a barrier covering Warsaw in the north. Having crossed this river the Germans a.re within about 35 miles of Warsaw, but from the Petrograd message on the subject to-day it would appear that' their attack does not point direct at Warsaw, but at the main Petrograd-Warsaw railway (approaching Warsaw from the north-east), from which they are distant 24 miles. The approach by way of. the Narew has always been regarded as a- possible line of - attack on Warsaw—for one thing it affords the shortest route from the German frontier —but- the Russian account indicates that the enemy lodgment south of the Narew has not materially affected the general situation. In support of this view it is pointed out that the enemy are still separated by 16 miles of roadless forest country from the River Bug, which is entered by the Narew about twenty miles north of Warsaw. In addition to this the Bug is a much more considerable river than tho Narew, and so is a better ' defensive barrier. At the same time events in the angle of the Bug and the Na-rew will now be watohed with interest and some anxiety. It has been stated more than once that the main Gorman attack is being developed, not on the nearer approaches to Warsaw, but in Southern Poland, on the approach to the Ivangorod-Lublin-Oholm railway, but the fact is not to be ignored that the enemy, already only twenty miles distant from the city 'in the west and southwest, are now also working in closely on the north. The Narew can hardly have been forced > except by effecting a heavy concentration ' of artillery, and this would imply that the Germans pressed the attack in strong force. A hope is expressed in the cablegram that the Russians may repeat in the. area south of the Narew tho success which they won against the Austrians on the north bank of the Dniester. On that occasion tho Russians deliberately drew the enemy on, and then, rolled back his too impetuous attack. The Germans are perhaps less likely to blunder in the same way, and as against the Russian anticipation tho counter-possibility must be considered that the German attack beyond the Narew may. be developed with judgment and caution. In that event it would at least hold considerable Russian forces in play.

It must be recognised that the Russians are no longer, in a position to continue the policy 'of rapid give and take they have hitherto pursued in Galicia and in Poland, west and north of the Vistula. They are thrown bacs in defence of their vital communications, and it is broadly true that "only a compact stand against the enemy will enable them to surmount their present problems. On that account there is more comfort to be drawn from tho fact that their defence appears to be holding firm in Southern Poland and west and south-west of Warsaw, than from any conjectures respecting a possible victory over the Germans who have crossed the Na-rew. As regards the south-eastern campaign the Germans claim that they have "further pushed back" tho Russians in tho Cholm region, but the claim is made in general terms and the Russians (at time of writing) havo admitted no now reverse in Southern Poland.

Onf, of the strangest features of the Eastern campaign at tho moment is the apparent unconcern with which the Russians admit tho continued success anc! developing importance of the German operations in the Baltic Provinces. At its inception the invasion of these territories was described as a mere raid, but latterly it has been made evident that the Germans are bringing strong forces to bear. To-day it is stated in a Petrograd message that the enemy advance continues, ancl that his ultimate objective is tho PetrogradVilna railway. This same line continues south-west. to Warsaw, and is the one- from which the Germans in 'the angle of the Nare.v and llto Bug are separated by a distance of only 24 miles. The lighting area in the Baltic Provinces is some 250 miles away from tho point at which tho Narew lias been crossed, aud there is no present warrant for assuming that operations in regions so far apart arc directly connected. But tho Germans are evidently possessed by a strong desire to cut the Petro-giad-Warsaw communications, and as things are going they are in a fair way to considerably extend their northern in**Miea. it is not impossible that they may. have dc- (

signs upon Petrograd itself, • although it is hardly possible that such an enterprise should be attempted until the struggle for Warsaw has been decided.

A dispatch from Me. Ashmead Baktlett gives a detailed and informative account of the succcssful attack made* a fortnight ago upon the Turkish lines in the southern area of the Gallipoli Peninsula. From Mn. Bartlett's spirited pen-picture it is evident that the Allies are possessed of a definite superiority in heavy artillery, but this emphasises, rather than otherwise, the tremendous strength of the Turkish defences which are being slowly, won by the tireless and dogged valour of the invading army. _ There is much ground for satisfaction in the report of further successful raiding' by British submarines in the Sea of Marmora. They have sunk' two' vessels laden with ammunition,, and are apparently able at will to penetrate into the Golden Horn. The situation must approximate to an effec-' tivc blockade of the Turkish sea communications, which will greatly facilitate the, Allied operations on land.

An intimation that a member of the Maori Contingent has been wounded implies that the Maoris have reached the goal of their desires—the fighting front. .They are no doubt in the field with their fel-low-countrymen at tho Dardanelles.

*.*''* * All questions as to the effective command of the Black Sea should be set at rest by the announcement that a brand-new Dreadnought mounting ten 12-inch guns in her main battery has been added to the Russian Black Sea Fleet. _ The ship will be either the Ekaterina II or the Imperatritza Maria. The first, .according to Jane, was laid down in October, 1911, and the second in the following month. Still another Dreadnought of the same type was laid down at a later date. The ship nowadded to the active list should liavo a consort before long with another' in prospect. The only Turkish ship whioh can in any way compare with the latest Russian acquisition is the battle-cruiser Goeben, and she is rc'portcd to bo badly crippled. Tho Goeben carries ten llrinch guns.

Though heavy fighting is reported at some points on tho Western front, no development is disclosed in any way comparable with the intense struggle in the Eastern theatre. Operations north of Arras have slowed down,' but a stir of activity continues west of the Argonne, on the bordefs. of Lorraine and in Alsacc. There is no further news of preparations by the Germans for a Western offensive, but a 'report, that, thoy arc strengthening a defensive line south from the Meuse at Namur is not necessarily inconsistent with the idea that an assault may be launched against the Western Allies when a decision* has been reached, one way or the other, on the Eastern front. A statement .that tho Gorman's are still transferring seasoned troops from AVest to East, filling tho gaps on tho Western front with young recruits, is not very convincing. Even Germany's recruiting resources are not inexhaustible. References to the recent attempt by the ,Gkown Prince's army to break through the French line in the Argonne suggest that it was costly to the Germans, and brought them no definite gain. There is a statement in one message that American munitions destined for Germany have been shipped in the first instance to Brazilian ports, and thence taken on board Swedish and Norwegian ships. From the beginning of the war, however, it must have been an obvious duty of British squadrons'to intercept supplies • bound for Germany by such indirect routes.

The Balkan situation is as doubtful as evor, and it cannot be ignored that developments satisfactory to the Entente are gravely impeded by Russia's present difficulties. One detail in to-day's news, however, perhaps warrants a degree of optimism. It is that Germany is browbeating Rumania, who is not permitting war supplies to reach Turkey. : Wit-h matters in their present uncertain state it argues strength of purpose and no friendly feeling to the Germanic Allies "that llumania should continue to close her frontiers to Turkish supplies. On the other hand it is always possible that her resolution may be broken down unless or until a llussian victory changes the aspect of affairs in the Eastern theatre. Timidity about sharing the perils of the Entente no doub.t constitutes Rumania's principal but there is no other visible way in which she' can at once extend her frontiers and secure her future. German agents and the German Press have assured her that Russia,'on gaining possession of tho Dardanelles, would kill the Rumanian export trade,_ but it may be supposed that Russia, has' given satisfactory assurances on this subject. From the Germanic Allies, Rumania has nothing to hope and much to fear, and even if late events in Ga.licia and Poland have disinclined her meantime for a policy of, enterprise she has excellent -reasons for at least postponing a. decision in regard to joining the Entente and for refusing to assist the Central Powers by giving them an open road to Turkey. # # * * Evidence is accumulating that Bulgaria, at best, is playing a double game, and is quite ready to throw in her lot with tho Germanic Allies if her interests seem to point in that direction. Like the other Balkan_ States, Bulgaria is offered a certain amount of territorial expansion as the price of co-operation with the Entente. She might expcct to be rewarded with Adrian-, ople, a portion of Macedonia, and' the territory taken from her by Rumania in the second Balkan War. It has been saidj however, that Austria dangles a bigger bait —offering Bulgaria half of Servia as the price of her assistance. This, with the possible addition of freedom to attack llumania, may be alluring to a country like Bulgaria, particularly ' if her statesmen consider an Entente victory problematical. Financial arrangements arc also a factor of importance. It has been reported recently that Bulgaria is negotiating a loan in Berliu, but, according to Dr. Dillon.(a recognised authority on Balkan affairs), she negotiated a£20,000,000 loan from Germany after the second Balkan War, and it is now being paid in instalments. Tho original arrangement was that Germany should lend the money, in return "for certain commercial concessions, but that in the event of a war the loan should be postponed, though Bulgaria must keep her part of the bargain. Dr. Dillon states that the discovery o'f this one-sided arrangement, when war broke out,' caused a great uproar in Bulgaria «nd p. movement in favour of cancelling it, .The rcsiiit jfiag that

many was compelled to: hand over an instalment of the loan, and agreed to pay at least £10,000,000 in instalments of £3,000,000 at a time. All things considered, it is probable that Bulgaria will only be induced to co-operate with her neighbours on the side of the Entente when it has beon„ demonstrated that she has no further favours to hope for from the Germanic Allies;

News of the Italian operations is as satisfactory as ever, though an unofficial message reporting the fall of Gorz is discredited by a later one showing that the attack on the place is still proceeding.

While, matters in the Balkans are otherwise somewhat unpromising, gratifying accounts are given of Servians splendid recovery. With some assistance from her Allies the gallant little country has triumphed over the exhaustion of war and the ravages of disoaso w'hieh followed in it's wake. A Servian Army of nearly a quarter of a million of- men, fully equipped, is in the field, and ready to act against Austria as soon as an offensive by Russia or Italy provides a favourable opportunity.