PROGRESS OF THE WAR

Dominion, Volume 8, Issue 2524, 27 July 1915, Page 4

PROGRESS OF THE WAR

As the news goes the situation of tho Russian armies defending AVarsaw has not . materially changed, and the prospect still exists of agreat battle, with the decision an open question. An enemy report claims that progress has been made in tho northern approach from the Narcw, and that some small successes have .been won west and south of Warsaw, but in the same report the position in the south-eastern theatre'is described as unchanged. It is here in the area south of the Ivangorod-Lublin-Oholm railway that Russian accounts point to the situation being most critical—more importance being attached to the attempt to turn the. Vistula line than to the direct attack on Warsaw from the west and tho attack from the north.. On the whole, the Russians would appear to be still lighting with some prospects of suc-cess,-though only a supreme effort and a splendid victory will extricate them from their present difficulties. * * * * Once again the unscnsational news from the Western front is varied by a prediction that the Germans will shortly make another big . at[fliupt to raauh Calais, At tho

teresting on account of the extreme tension which obtains on the opposite front. Whether or, not they succeed in -capturing Warsaw . the Germans arc quite likely to open another assault on the Western Allies—if they succeed, because they will have grcaf ( forces available for tho purpose, and if they fail because an attack may lie the only way to v avert a similar enterprise by the' Allics.f At ah events a, renewed German offensive on the Western front is unlikely to lead to any such critical situation, from the point of view of the Allies, as obtains in the Eastern theatre. The comparative immobility of the Western Allied armies, while the Russians are fighting for their lives, may suggest that their resources arc limited, but there is a wide margin between the concentration and accumulation of men and material likely to be deemed .necessary to warrant a general assault on the German lines, and a state of preparation which should ensure ability to defeat any similar effort by tho Germans. Also it has not yet been demonstrated that the Allies are waiting for anything but the most favourable moment at which to launch their onset.

While there is little of note from France to-day the success at Hooge recorded by Sir John French has an important bearing mi the fighting in the immediate vicinity of the advantage gained. It is impossible to judge at all accurately of the effect of such happenings, but manifestly it is a distinct gain of some local consequence. Such news as we have from other parts of the Western theatre is generally satisfactory.

The note which may be expected to dominate tho Imperial Conference to be summoned before the war ends has been struck at Cape Town in connection with tho popular celebrations over the conqucst of German South-West Africa, There is no rea'son to doubt that the whole Empire will endorse the view stated by General Shuts that the captured German colonics must remain with those who have won them. This is the only possible answer and the only effective answer to the alldevouring spirit of German foreign policy which found free expression in her co.lonial expansion. German colonies, whether in Africa or Pacific islands, have been "so many strategic bases, intended to serve purposes of conquest and aggression. Each Gorman colony has been a danger-spot and a menace to people of other races desiring to live at peace and to suggest their re-estab-lishment would be to advocate a suicidal policy. The conquest and retention of the Gorman colonies is in strict consonance with the aim of Britain and her Allies—to destroy German militarism—and for that reason should be as popular in the Mother Country as in the oversea Dominions.

There is again good news of the Italian operations on the Isonzo front. As regards Gcrizia (Gorz) tho principal Austrian stronghold, the Rome official report merely claims "further progress," but other messages declare that the fall-of the place is imminent. - The reduction of Gorizia would be a big'step towards clearing the war for an invasion of Istria, but it has j'efc tp be shown that the Italians are-anxious to immediately' prosecute this invasion. It would necessarily J absorb large forces, and the possibility of a counter-invasion from the north cannot vet be set aside. It may easily be judged wise to postpone tho invasion of Istria until the Gcr : manic allies have been brought considerably nearer to ultimate defeat than they are at present. .# * * *

It is not surprising to learn that the German successes in Galicia and Poland have had an effect on- the Balkan States. Bulgaria, it would seem, is getting into_ friendly relations with our. enemies, and much depends on tne attitude of Bulgaria. Rumania and Greece a,ro both likely to be discouraged from assisting tho Entente if Bulgaria holds aloof, leaving, her neighbours in doubt as to her intentions. Now we are told that a representative of Bulgaria is on a visit to Berlin for loan-raising purposes, and that a Treaty has been signed at Constantinople under which Bulgaria secures from Turkey the balance of tho Dede Agatch Province. The territory referred to is at tho south-western corner of tho Turkish frontier, near the Aegean Sea. The town of Dede Agatch is the terminus of a branch of the Belgrade-Constantinople railway. This concession is comparatively small, and the most that Bulgaria is likely to jjive in return is a promise of neutrality. Bulgariais notoriously a hard-bargainer, and it was her greed in this respect that assisted' to rob her of much of the fruits of victory in the first Balkan war, and led her into the second struggle with Such unh'appy results to herself..- It is because of her do-' siro for revenge against Servia, Greece, and Rumania, on account of the second Balkan war, that her attitude is viewed with such distrust by Rumania and Greece. The portion of the Province of Dede Agatch which Turkey has now ceded to her is but a small slice of the territory which Bulgaria had hoped to possess as the outcome of the Balkan war. Something much more substantial would be required to secure her active support-. Stillthe incident is an unpleasant- one.

A Rumanian statesman, it- will be noted, in an interview with tho Paris Temps, while highly complimentary' in his referchco to the Entente Powers, suggests that a great Allied victory is desirable at the present juncture to counteract tho effects of the Galician campaign and appeal to the imagination of neutrals. Such a victory, ho holds, is only attainable now at the Dardanelles. So far as tho news available is a guide there is no immediate promise of a great victory at tho Gallipoli Peninsula, Trench warfare is a slow business. Moreover tho Turks are reported to be bringing in fresh troops to replace those which have been fighting against our forccs and lost so terribly in tho process. The ultimate intention of Rumania to assist 'in tho overthrow of the Austro-German-Turkish alliance is mentioned by the Rumanian statesman 'above referred to, but it is fairly plain that if he is to be taken as correctly representing Rumanian opinion we shall have to get our enemies on the run before his country will join in the chase.

It is a little premature to describe the latest American Note to Germany as practically an ultimatum. It is a- very plain-spoken Note; in places a very emphatic Note; and Germany cannot fail to appreciate tho very clear indication that President Wit,son has arrived at a fniiiv: of-mind wiffitt (tu'l.ber trifling jnd evasion Jaira fcq take.

a decisive step. But does the Kaiser believe that President Wilson will really go the length of calling on Lho United States tq break off all relations with Germany, and if necessary plunge into war? Everything points to a negative as the reply to this question. Germany believes, and nob without some justification, that the United States could not go to war with her save at very grave risks of internal trouble. She is encouraged in this view by the knowledge which she possesses of the organisation behind tho_ German population of the United States, an organisation which is reputed to be largely controlled from Germany. The 'industrial disorders which are disturbing manufacturing centres in America at the present time, chiefly ill munition, works and in. shipping circles, are an_ evidence or the powers for mischief possessed by the Gorman organisations in America. They may be taken not only as being aimed at the Entente Powers, who are purchasing munitions of war in America, but are a- direct hint to the j.American authorities of the possibilities of trouble which lie ahead should the United S'tates become embroiled with Germany. ' Hoy/ far the Kaiser and his advisers may lis justified in believing that the President and the United States Government will be deterred'by the conditions in America, froui going to extremes, can only be tested .by time. On present appearances the, prospects of a rupture, to judge by the 'tone of the Press of the two countries, would appear to be by no means remote. We may expect, however, to sec Germany still playing for time.