PROGRESS OF THE WAR

Dominion, Volume 8, Issue 2523, 26 July 1915, Page 4

PROGRESS OF THE WAR

Interest still centres in the German effort to capture Warsaw, and in the absent of .any development on tho opposite front which would compel the enemy to readjust his plans ancl so reduce the terrific pressure now bearing on the Russians. On the news in hand the situation has not materially altered in its major features since it was- last touched upon in these notes. Such clianges as have occurred, however, favour our Ally, and in addition the tone of correspondents! letters from Russia is far more optimistic than it has been. A fascinating possibility exists to temper the situation. It is that action in the West is being delayed, not because the Western Allies are incapable of striking, but bccausc awaiting the most favourable moment to strike. To admit such a possibility is to indulge in pure speculation, but it is a speculation not invalidated by anything that is definitely -kno.mj pi uc iajjtsjif the jjpsitloßt,

Indeed, it is supported by the message which we publish to-day from the Petrograd correspondent of the London Momi-ny Pott, who suggests that the Grand Duke Nicholas lias after all outwitted the enemy.

Until Warsaw lias actually fallen it is legitimate to suppose that General Joffnis—acting in conformity with the plans of the Grand Duke in the East—may be awaiting that maximum concentration of German strength in the Eastern theatre which would best lend itself to a supreme effort to break the German Western line. One thing is plain. Only a big Allied victory in tho West would materially relieve the pressure in the East. ■ A partial victory would not, necessarily help the Russians very much or serve any other useful purpose in the immediate future. If, for instance, it had the effect of compelling the Germans to fall back to a- shorter line in the Wcsfci they might bo able to maintain as great a force as over in the Eastern theatre and to be in a position to attempt a good deal more than the capture of the Vistula line. One way or the other, it is plain that the world is about to be afforded a definite indication as to the present balance of the forces opposed in this war. The fate of Warsaw is, of course, not identified with the final outcome of the war, but the Russians may be trusted to defend tho city with all the power at their command and with' the magnificent courage they have unfailingly displayed since tho war began. ' One message from Petrograd tells us that the Russian Commander has been loading up to a great general battle of a decisive nature at positions which best suit him and his forces. And tho Western Allies, if they are able to do it with cffect, may bo expected to strike to assist Russia, not only for the sake of a- hardpressed Ally, but for their own sakes—for the sake of the all-round freedom of action which must accompany the continued possession of Warsaw by Russia and her consequent freedom to manoeuvre in Poland and on the German Eastern frontiers.

For the time being tho fate of Warsaw, with all that depends upon it, hangs in the balance.' West and south-west of tho city tho .Russians aro described as _ occupying lines some twenty miles away from the Vistula—practically tho "enlarged bridgehead" position of which an enemy report spoke a, day or two ago. At the samo time the enemy is closing in upon the fortresses on the Vistula which cover Warsaw on north and south,; but neither Novo Georgievsk nor Ivangorod havo as yet been actually invested. As has been pointed out before, the Russians have practically every advantage that superior communications can give in the existing state of road and railway development in Poland. They aro fighting in perhaps the greatest emergency .that has over arisen in the Eastern theatre, and inspired alike by the emergency and by deadly hatred of ail enemy who has capped an atrocious rcoord by murdering five thousand Russian' prisoners in cold blood. The forward movement of the German Armies is menacing, but the latest news that reaches us is of an encouraging nature, and tho Kaiser may be onco more disappointed in his hope of capturing Warsaw.

Great.as would be the advantage' to Germany if she mastered the line of tho Vistula, it is not easy to see how the advantage could be developed to more_ than a limited extent in the direction of grasping final victory in the war. 'For a variety of reasons the prospect of a continued invasion of Russia beyond tho Vistula can hardly be inviting. The late victories in Galicia were gained mainly by massing men and guns even moro closely than Germany had done in the past passages of this war. Something like 4000 guns, half of them heavy pieces, arc said to have been used in the Galician drive. A grcat_ part of this enormous concentration of artillery was employed in conjunction with ' a dense phalanx of men in-an advance along the main railway through Galicia from west to cast. The , phalanx, or. "bolt," as. it has l)ccn_ called, suffered heavily as was inevitable, but was irresistible except when its progress was temporarily arrested by a failure of the supplies essential to its striking power. Such tactics are dependent upon good communications, but the Germans have continued their offensive into Poland, where the communications are bad, by a policy-of establishing magazines and depots as they advance, and there accumulating supplies as a preliminary to each forward move. Even should these methods enable them to master the Vistula and Warsaw they are not likely to attempt a continued invasion of Russia on the same lines while a still greater problem than that of defeating Russia remains unsolved in the West. The cost of the success attained in the Eastern theatre has been great and the cost of capturing Warsaw, if it is to be captured, will also be groat. Freely as she is at present sacrificing men and material Germany is boilnd to hear in mind the postponed conflict in tho West and limit her Eastern enterprises accordingly..

It is probable that a- German victory resulting in the capture of Warsaw would be followed by a rapid transfer of strength from east to west and an attempt to gain the upper hand in the Western theatre. The alternative would bo to continue a wearing conflict with Russia which promises no immediate decision and to leave- the Western Allies comparatively unmolested to build up their offensive power. Perhaps the greatest danger of all is_ that Germany might follow up a limited success against the Russians by setting herself to fight a defensive ancl delaying campaign in both theatres in the hope of gaining peace on inconclusive terms. Such a policy would be likely to impose a severer test upon the fortitude and staying power of the Allies than any continuance of vigorous _ aggression since it would almost inevitably involve a war of extreme duration. This being so, it is perhaps the most encouraging fact in sight that the spirit of the nations arrayed against the Germanic Alliancc, and not least in Russia, appears to be firmly set upon seeing the war through at all costs.

Little but good news has come through about- the Italian land operations of late, but any exaggerated expectations based upon this, fact would be unwise. Italy has undoubtedly strengthened her position to some extent as regards defence against invasion, and the progress made on the Isonzo front is encouraging. To-day's messages from this quarter a most- uilisfactory .jjature. - '

In France ancl Flanders events still move slowly. The German Crown Prince seems to be prosecuting his campaign in the Argonne with some energy and with reckless disregard of the lives of his troops, but lie 'has made no material progress. One story is thai; he has establislicd the practice of- fortifying his soldiers with a, deadly mixture of spirits which drives the men half mad and under tho influence of which they aro indifferent to or ignorant of all danger. These halfintoxicated, half-maddened, men make desperate charges which up to the present do not appear to have been productive of any gains worth mentioning. The story may seem far-fetched, possibly it is an exaggeration ; but it is by no means unlikely that the men are well supplied with drink to inflame their passions and produce tho proper degree of recklessness on desperate occasions. It is quite in keeping with the Crown Piunce's character and with German methods generally. The fact that there is so little news from Franco rather suggests the inaction which precedes a great effort—the calm before the storm.

America's latest Note to Germany on the submarine outrages, though couohcd in the friendliest terms, can leave no doubt in tho minds of the Kaiser and his advisers that the patience of the United States authorities is now very close to breaking point. Germany's reply to the previous Note, it is pointed' out, is most unsatisfactory, and fails to meet the real question raised. The suggestion mat Germany should grant certain approved vessels a safe passage is refused, and it is made as clcar_ as can be that America is determined to claim for her citizens tho right to freely sail the seas as neutrals without having to face the risk of being murdered by German submarines. This right tho Note states the American Government will uphold without compromise and at any cost. Repetition of such acts as the sinking of unarmed 'merchant vessels carrying American passengers will be regarded by the United States as'a deliberately unfriendly act.. This is plain speaking President Wilson refuses to allow Germany to side-track the, real issue by charges against Great Britain which he says are quite irrelevant to the discussion of Germany's actions on tho high seas. So far as other belligerent countries are concerned tho United States claims the same rights from them as she claims from Germany. This is all very well and mostly very unpleasant for Germany, particularly in view of the activity being displayed in naval, and military circles in tho United States. Germany no doubt will continue to play for time. Plainly,- she does not think tho United States will go to extremes. It is a risky thing to gamble on. * * * * A brief glimpse of matters at the Dardanelles is contained in a message from Sir lan Hamilton. Tho Turks essayed another asault on Friday last and in twenty minutes cried enough. There are indications according to an Athens message that an assault" in force-may be looked for shortly. The activities of our submarines in the Sea of Marmora and of tho Russian Fleet in 'the Black Sea aro beginning to paralyse Turkish transport by sea-, and the authorities apparently think it; tini,q. to attempt some decisive step against the-Allies on Gallipoli. It -is worthy' of note that one of our submarines has been doing a little effective surface work in the Sea of Marmora. A wheat train was smashed up by gunfire from the and some shells thrown into- an ammunition factory. This is a new .branch ,of operations for the underwater craft.

There arc possibilities of trouble in tho dispatch of war vessels by Greece to tlic coast of Smyrna where residents arc being badly treated by tho Turks. With feeling so strained as it is between the Greeks and the Turks it would require vory little provocation'on the part of fighting forces of either side, to lead to an ex'ohange of shots, and the fat then might be in the fire. k * * «

Recent events point to tho probability of big . happenings ■ in the Western theatre at no distant date. There have been special calls of an imperative nature made by the War Office and by the Naval authorities, and amongst tho number was an appeal to New Zealand for 100 doctors.' It would be interesting to . know whether these doctors have yet left; or when they are going to leave, for so far as is known very few have yet gone. Not so long ago the Prime Minister, in a- stirring address, ; wliich struck ' a -responsive cord in the breast of every British subject throughout the Dominion, declared that all that we have and all that wo are were at the service of the Mother. Country and the Empire in the present great struggle. •Cannot New Zealand then produce the 100 doctors asked for by tho Home authorities'! When this question was raised by us a little time ago there appeared to be some doubt as to whether the doctors could be spared. This seenis incredible, but if 100 are not available, why . not send 50 ? In this matter, as in many others connected with the war, promptitude is everything. The doctors we were led to believe were wanted at once. Tho sooner tho Health Department can make up its mind as to how, many the Dominion can spare the .better it will be for the men in the fighting lines in trance ancf Flanders.