PROGRESS OF THE WAR

Dominion, Volume 8, Issue 2522, 24 July 1915, Page 4

PROGRESS OF THE WAR

Indefinite but disquieting references to the t.end of events in Poland have now been supplemented by a broad hint .that the Russians may find it impossible) to arrest the progress 'of the German invading ai'inics short of Warsaw.- Both in Petrograd and London there is evidently an expectation, of untoward events, and from the terms iri which the expectation is admitted.it seems likely that it is based on fuller information than is available at this end of the world/ It is not to be denied that the prospect thus opened up, both in its local and immediate significance, and in a wider sense, is disconcerting. The Russians havo often sustained defeat and been hard pressed by the enemy in the course of the struggle, which has now lasted for eleven months, biit the safe, defence of Warsaw has in the past softened and mitigated their worst misfortunes. While Warsaw and its railway bridges remain in Russian hands such 'victories as the Germans may win are of limited value and inconclusive effect. Warsaw has been the objective of the Germans from the beginning'of the campaign, and so long as their attacks fail to reacli it the Russians retain a, wide freedom of action in Poland and ability to _ poiir troops into the Polish salient west of the Vistula. They havo fought throughout with the Vistula as an ultimate barrier to enemy attacks, and the railway bridges over the Vistula at Warsaw make it the great gateway into Poland. The prospect opened up in tho messages irom Petrograd and London which have been rhciitioncd is that this strong barrier arid fsaieway may now fall into German hands.

Tiie effect would be, of course, to lay a wide extent of additional Ilussian territory open to invasion, a.a'l what is much worse, to greatly limit tho scope and freedom of Kussiaa operations until Warsaw Lad been regained and the Germans driven back into the territory west of vhe' Vistula-. The fall of Warsaw wo«l.' be- in the most optimistic view a staggering blow to the Allies as the first year of the war is ncaring its end, and a pretty reliable indication that,at least another year would be reqiiivetl to. tiintiisH the* CltU'Wuu wat>

course, be confined to tfie Eastern theatre, and if Warsaw falls while matters remain relatively calm on tho opposite front, the only possible inference will be that France and Britain are not yet in a position to precipitate a decisive conflict with the German Western armies. ' The evidence is not in hand which would make it possible to form any definite opinion as to the total effect of such a Russian reverse as would be entailed in the loss of "Warsaw, but no doubt it is the present object of the Germans to "contain" the Russians cast of the Vistula, and so gain freedom to concentrate the greatest possible force, in the Western theatre. It remains as true as ever it did that it is too big a task for Germany, in view of her total responsibilities, to attempt such an invasion of Russia as would reduce that country to submission.

It is just,possible that these uneasy hints from Petrograd, though they are so gravely viewed in London, may bo somewhat ahead of the facts—that they may come from people who are awaiting tho result of a. decisive struggle, and not from those who are directing the Russian armies. Certainly if matters are as bad as these hints of disaster suggest, factors are operating all knowledge of which has been studiously withheld from the public at large. On the facts that are. public, it was not unreasonable to believe that Warsaw was as safe now as at any time since the war began. The Germans have made four previous attempts to reach and capture the city, and the general situation on - both fronts— and notably the developing strength of the Western Allies, the extended array of the German armies in Poland and the Baltic Provinces, and the_ continued vigour of the llussian resistance—encouraged a hope that tho fifth attempt would be no more successful than its predecessors. The mere vigour and dash of the German onfall will hardly account for a situation as grave as is implied in tho Petrograd reports, and if they are within the mark, tho only feasible explanation is . that an inadequate supply 'of munitions and essential equipment has' terribly weakened the Russian armies.

This apart, tho Grand Duke Nicholas has drawn up his armies in positions wholly favourable to a stubborn defence. So far as the essential operations iipon which the fate of Warsaw depends are concerned, ho is holding roughly two sides of a rectangle, the western' side including the position.west of Warsaw, while tho southern end is a line across Southern Poland, covering tho Ivangoi'od-Lublih-Chohn railway, which tile Germans arc trying hard to reach. The essential advantage of the Russian position is that the inner area of tho rectangle on the fringe of which tlioy are fighting takes in practically the whole of the railways running west to the Vistula. This advantage still exists unimpaired, despite the headway the Germans have made in Southern Poland. General von Mackensen's army has not yet (on news in hand) reached tho Lublin railway, and the German advance in , this region, as on the lines of approach to Warsaw through Northern and Central Poland, is less adequately served by railways than the Russian defensive front. * » » * According to tho latest availablo enemy reports, tho Russians have been forced back 1 to an enlarged bridgehead position of the Vistula covering Warsaw, and are also losing ground in the north and in Southern Poland. The position at all events is grave, but the indomitable Russian spirit shines out as bravely is ever in' tho address of the Grand Duke Nicholas to his soldiers. Even the enemy furnish testimony to the dogged spirit of tho Russians in complaints that they are laying tho country waste as they retreat—a repetition of the tactics which brought the great Napoleon to disaster.

There is a continued absence of events iri the Western area of war at all comparable in importance with the tremendous struggle which seems to be rapidly nearing a decisive result on the opposite front. The Germans give a highly-coloured account of a battle in Alsace, claiming a gain of ground, and that French attacks were "bloodily repulsed." , Frorri the French account it appears that the engagement consisted mainly of a series of wasteful eneniy attacks, which were repulsed with loss. .. N • . ,

An official report from the Dardanelles brings no confirmation of the account of a heavy.engagement lately transmitted by a correspondent. The general effcct of the dispatoh is that the Allies havo consolidated their hold upon tho ground gained in recent attacks in the southern area, and have defeated the enemy, in a series of, small engagements in both northern and southern areas. * * * * The American account, based on messages from London, of an air engagement at tiho month of the Thames, in, which three German aeroplanes were destroyed, is quite possibly authentic. • The absence of any report direct , from London might be explained by a desire on the part of the'censorship to withold information as to the nature of the British air defences. Tho continued failure of the German Zeppelins to raid England in strong force calls for some explanation, and it may be explained in part by Britain having by this time organised' a strong force of defending aeroplanes—a course advocated by aviation experts iri the early days of tho war. There are other means of defence, but the splendid achievement of the late Lieutenant Warneford suggests strongly that the aeroplane is the Zeppelin's most deadly foe. It is known that tho aeroplane, can fly faster and rise higher than its giant competitor. In some cases Zeppelins have escaped from attacking aeroplanes apparently by taking to (light while the latter wero attempting to rise from the ground to a commanding position, but Zeppelins ranging as far from home- as the English coast would be Unable to beat a successful retreat in this way, unless favoured by darkness or thick weather. In clear weather the speedy aeroplanes would soon make up for the time lost in rising to the necessary'elevation. If the plan advocated by Mn. L. Bi.in Dr.sbleds (who takes a prominent part in aviation matters in Great Britain) has been adopted, tho coast defence aeroplanes will be located not only in depots covering points of special strategic importance, but in subsidiary depots Scattered all round the coasts so as to make a limited force immediately available in any locality attacked. 'I'ntii'i? (»Itttei-GNt fov New Xealaud

gent of mechanics is to go Homo h , om i Australia to assi&t.in the production of war munitions. A similarcontingent could undoubtedly bo raised in this country, and though an offer to send Home New Zealand mechanics was rejected by the Imperial authorities some time ago, indications are that the position has ohanged, and that it would be in the interests of the Empire to repeat and press the offer.

The announcement by Loitp Robert Cecil that America, has issued certain rules practically permitting armed merchant vessels to enter United States ports is of particular interest and importance. The justification for the arming of merohant vessels is of course tho methods of submarine warfare introduced by Germany. Armed vessels under ordinary war conditions cannot enter a neutral port for trading purposes, and this has been one of the objections raised to the oft-made suggestion that vessels of the British mercantile fleet should be armed with a gun or two each, so that they might be in a position to resist submarine attacks. So long as such vessels could not trade with neutral ports tho proposal could not be entertained", except in the case of vessels trading with the Overseas Dominions or with our Allies. If tho statement now credited to Lord Robert Cecil is correct, then the situation has materially changed for the better. But what is Germany likely to say on what she will loudly proclaim as a bvcaoh of neutrality? What an outcry will bo made if tho United States gives effect to the rules said to have been now laid down.

Discussing the means by which America, might emphasise her disapproval of Germany's shuffling over the _ President's Note on the Lusitania crime, tho New York Outlook of Juno 16, in urging that the time had come for "deeds, not words," suggested that there were at least three ways in which- the United States could fulfil its pledge to call Germany to "a strict accountability" for its lawless course

(1) Declare non-intercourse with Germany. That 16, forbid all trade with tlie offending nation. (2) It might go further and refu6e all jjolitical intercourse witli Germany, recall its Ambassador, and thus say in the most emphatic manner pos-; siblo, "We will have nothing more to do with a lawless nation until it discontinues its lawless acts." (2) It might open its ports to the ileets of the Allies and furnish their warships with provisions and munitions of weir. It might send freely to tho Allies goods Whether contraband or not, withi the sanction and. support of the Government, and it might say to Germany, "We will not resume the "obligations of neutrality until you recognise our rights as neutrals."

If America is, as stated, prepared to admit armed merchantmen to her ports, then she has taken an important step on the lines suggested by the Outlook. Such a step involves great possibilities—it even involves the possibility of Germany treating it as a hostile act, and following up its protest with a declaration of war.