PROGRESS OF THE WAR

Dominion, Volume 8, Issue 2507, 7 July 1915, Page 6

PROGRESS OF THE WAR

The Kaiser 'is perhaps the worst possible authority on any subject connected with the war, and his sworn promise that there will bo no winter campaign, and that the war will end' by October, must be considered in quite a different category to, that of definite and' reliable war news. At the same time, read in conjunction with what is known of developments in tho main theatres and. some other messages published t'o-da.y, this reported-bombast of tho German Emperor is not without interest. It is suggested, amongst other things, that Germany will probably open a furious general offensive on the Western front, in the autumn. Thero is no particular authority behind these suggestions, but it is not at all unlikely that Germany may make a desperate bid to retrieve her fortunes in the West before winter sets in.. Her chief incentive to do so is that in Franco and Flanders she is facj to face with her most dangerous enemies, and that it is much more necessary and important to overcome "these enemies than to win fresh successes in Poland and elsewhere on the Eastern front. Entertaining the idea that Germany -may yet be in a position to attempt a renewed offensive in tho Western theatre involves the jettisoning of beliefs that have been held widely and with, confidence for many months past, but it is certain that some of these beliefs were based on misconceptions which tho march of events has done a great deal to clear up. It is undoubtedly the case, for instance, that exaggerated expectations were based upon the prediction that tho Western Allies would take the offensive in tho spring. While the deadlock of the winter months continued very many people believed that in the spring tho Allies would launch a general assault upon the German line with good hopes of thrusting it back .and expelling tho Germans from the territory they had invaded in France and Flanders. It is now quito clear that.no snob tmtarjiriee wuh possible (uul ex.Rcctatioiaa of th<? kiscl &ouW rmtz

have been entertained if facts now public about munitions, equipment, and other matters, had been known oarlier. In April last, to cite a single fact, it- was announced by Mn. Lloyd George, in the House of Commons, that there were then about 700,000 British troops in the field. It is obvious that British preparations must be in a much more advanced state than they are probably in now to enable tho Western Allies to exert their full strength against tho enemy. It is to be noted also that less than two' months ago efforts were inaugurated in .Great Britain to organise war industries on a scale not hitherto attempted. **' * . * It is quite beyond doubt in the light of present knowledge that an overwhelming general assault upon the German front in the opening, months of fine weather was not within the bounds of possibility. At the same time it would be quite erroneous to assume that tho spring offensivewas a mere myth. In point of fact it was undertaken,' and according to the most reliable information obtainable it has achieved excellent results. The Allies did not attempt in the spring to smash the German line, but they adopted aggressive tactics which they . have maintained and developed ever since. During t]io_ last four months they Jiavc precipitated 'a series of mighty battles in which Germany, always with an unsolved problem on the opposite front, has had to expend hundreds of thousands of lives'in maintaining her footing in Franco and Flanders. It is claimed for the Allies, and -what is known of the facts supports the claim, that Germany is defending her Western front with forces which decline in strength, while those 6i the Allies are increasing. It is not certain that Gormany has called up her. last effective reserves, but if this point has not been reached if; has been closely approached and the Allies arc far from having exhausted their reserves. _ The Allies began their offensive in tho spring, and < it- has developed almost continuously ever since. The situation is summed up in tho statement that constantly-in-creasing pressure is being brought to bear upon tho German front. It is_ a poor phrase to describe so mighty an outpouring of force, but it means the shattering of armies,the progressive exhaustion of the mighty resources in men and material which go to make up Germany's military! strength.

It was long ago made plain that any attempt to estimate the progress of the_ war from the standpoint of- territory -won or: lost could only be The aim of the Allies is not merely to recover invaded territory, but to wear down the German Armies, and this they' have been doing for a long time past on an almost stationary. line . and in battles in which the gain 'of a mile of ground on a. narrow front has been exceptional. 1 The actual developments of the war h'olcl out no promise or indication of a speedy Allied victory, but unless the facts, stated as facts on official authority, have been completely misrepresented, the ultimate victory of the Allies, assuming that there is no slackening of effort, is assured because they oppose a developing force to one that is declining. The prediction of a renewed Gorman offensive is credible because it is only by a desperate effort that tl?e Germans can hope to secure any advantage while tho_ ■ Allies need ' only pursue their present comparatively slow-de-.veloping attack to ultimately gain their end. It may be said with confidence that a German general offensive in the Western theatre would play directly into the hands of the Allies.' What Germany failed to accomplish with all the advantage of her initial preparation and against unprepared enemies she is not likely to accomplish now when het/.enemies havo had eleven months to develop resources whioh at the beginning' of that period were untouched. In past experience Germany's attacks, on the Western front at all events, have been considerably moro expensive to herself than to ner enemies, and a general attack as matters now stand would bo more likely to result in such a terrible loss of strength* as' would compel a retirement from her. present line than to crush the mounting strength of the Allies. There is,, of course, an alternative. : Germany may play for stalemate. She may ultimately settle down to fight" a defensive'war in. the hope of winning a satisfactory neace from her enemies..

. News of actual developments in the Western theatre is meagre at time of writing. German attacks have continued in Northern Franco and near the border, of Lorraine. In the latter area they, have recovered a line of trenches captured some time ago by the French. Elsewhere they appear to have suffered heavy losses: without any corresponding advantage. . * * * | * , . . ■ ' Theories that the Dardanelles campaign has reached a condition of stalemate must now be definitely set aside.. From the full accounts now given of the recent fighting on. the Gallipoli Peninsula it is evident that tho invading forces have not only materially improved their position,' but inflicted very heavy losses on the enemy. The official reports and other more detailed accounts of the fighting lend no support to the statement published yesterday, on the au-. thorifcy of a , correspondent at Mitylene, that tho Turks arc running short ' of t munitions. - On the contrary, it is shown that they are expending them at a prodigal rate. In their general tenor, h'owever, the messages aro decidedly encouraging. The broad impression conveyed. is that the Turkish defensive line across the southern part of tho peninsula has been so imperilled by the recent successful attacks of the l Allies that they have been driven to make desperate efforts to recover, the advantage.- The 'counter-attacks launched with this end in view seem to have been uniformly, beaten off with little difficulty, and at terrible cost to the enemy. Sir lan Hamilton estimates the Turkish'losses during seven days at 5150 killed and 15,000 wounded. * * « * Keferences in the official messages show that the Australians and New Zcalandcrs have borne as -honourable a part in the recent battles as their comrades on the southern line. The situation as a whole promises distinctly well for the future, and it will not be at all surprising if the Allies aro able to quickly develop the advantage I hey have gained by working round the ilank of the Turkish line. * ■ . * . * ■ * Available ■ reports discloso no very material change in .the Eastern theatre. As against a recent Berlin message indicating a- wido extension Ifli ja Southern, PoljitvcL

the Russians report that tho main German-attack is being developed in the area immediately east of tho Vistula. They claim also that the enemy offensive has been stopped at tiro Wsynica River, "a tributary which enters tho Vistula from the east, about twenty miles north of the Galician frontier; It is quite possible that the Russians have made a definite stand on this line, and that the Germans are already experiencing difficulty in transporting munitions and supplies.- Much of their late success in Galicia .was gained by throwing a massed phalanx of troops and artillery against the Russian front. .Even in Galicia, where tho advance was made along lines of railway, great difficulty was experienced in maintaining the flow of supplies demanded by this mass formation, and-in Southern Poland the difficulty will bo very greatly acccntuated. River transport may compensate to some extent for the deficiency of railways so far as the area adjacent to tha Vistula is concerned. The diversion of German strength to Southern Poland has had a marked effect upon the operations in Galicia, and the Russians still occupy . a wide belt of territory at the eastern end of the province _ which they could not. well have retained if -the enemy had pursued his attacks with their former vigour. -