PROGRESS OF THE WAR

Dominion, Volume 8, Issue 2495, 23 June 1915, Page 6

PROGRESS OF THE WAR

Somewhat conflicting accounts are given in to-day's messages of the position as regards Lemberg, but the facts are summed up (probably with accuracy) in a message forwarded by the High Commissioner. The latest Petrograd communique, it states, reports that the .Russians on Sunday night 'retreated from the Grodek lakes, their defensive position 15 miles west of Lemberg, and that the enemy's offensive furthor north continues. The London Times reports that opinipn in Petrograd is that Lemberg will not be held. Tho loss of the place and tho retreat of the Russians towards their own territory may now be taken almost as a matter- of course. * * * * An expectation formed by many people early in the war, and one that has been to some extent encouraged by military correspondents and expert writers, is that a point will be reached when Germany, having exhaust-eel her offensive stierigth, will be overwhelmingly attacked simultaneously on both fronts. There is no positive_ evidence in sight which would justify this anticipation being set aside as impossible, but actual events have made it manifest that a simultaneous and general offensive by tho Allies on both fronts is not reasonably to be looked for until the war has advanced materially beyond its present stage. A fact which stands out boldly at the moment is that the Germans are much more imminently threatened on the West than in the East. No undue emphasis need be laid upon the fact that the Russians are at present fighting one _ losing 'battle after another in. Galicia. This is no doubt a passing phase, and without any surrender to unreasoning optimism the whole Galician campaign may be accepted as only an incident, though a big one, in the tremendous ebb and flow of battle which has obtained in the Eastern theatre coincidently with the equally deadly but less mobile conflict in the West. Fighting in her own way and making the best of her limitations and shortcomings in equipment, Russia has played her full part in working for ultimate victory, and no 1 doubt will continue to do so, but there is no immediate prospect of the armies of the Tsar being able to embark upon suoh a close and concentrated assault upon the German lines as is gathering head in tho West, Russian prospects in ' the immediate future seem to be more accurately forecasted by a Russian general officer of high standing, who is credited to-day with a statement on the subject. Russia, he says, can stand the loss of men almost indefinitely, and is willing to accept the burden of breaking the German wave until tho Germans have reached the' limit of their strength. When that time arrives the Russian advance will begin. * * * # Vague as it is in some respects, this statement of the position carries a measure of illumination. It is entirely at variance with the conception of the Russians and the I Western Allies gradually gathering [strength in an orderly and concerted movement and closing in upon Germany from west and east liko the twin jaws of a vice. All going well with the Allies the day will come when Germany will be invaded on both frontiers, but to expect the Allies in East and West to adopt and follow the same methods of achieving this end is to attempt to lido rough-shod over facts which cannot be disposed of in any such arbitrary fashion. The practical bearing'of these considerations at the moment is that the great effort that is being made by British, French, and Belgians to break down German resistance in the. Western theatre need not necessarily be. sccmirlrrl In .-Imilsi' fotihlnfi nn l.hc Ijjojjitfl JEjfottb to actuevs its wleaded.

effect. Neither is any such duplication of effort identified with an ellicient co-ordination of the Eastern and Western campaigns. Tho imthe Western offensive ;s not diminished, nor is its effect weakened, by the fact that the Russian strategists still find it necessary to follow the method of giving ground and drawing the enemy on. * * * * It is impossible to regard the great attack 'low under way in tin; Western theatre in any other light than that* of a general offensive in which it is intended to persevere until it has achieved its purpose of wearing down the resistance of the Germans on their present line and compelling them to retreat to a shorter line in rear. The war in the West has long passed the stage when the Allies were content to bold their enemy as in the days that followed the Battle of the Amno. From isolated battles and assaults, the offensive has developed into a constant blaze of heavy fighting along a great part of the enemy's line, and the whole process .would represent a useless ancl foolish sacrifice of life if it were not intended to persevere and attack with ever-increasing vigour until the enemy's lino is broken. There is no ccrtainty in war, but the progress of events during tho last month or two justifies a belief that tho Germans can be driven back through Belgium and Northern Franc© while the .Russians are still pursuing their normal tactics on the opposite front. And all that is known of surrounding and related circumstances encourages the same belief. 'Making every effort to hold their ground during the last few months, tho Germans have been defeated time after time on an extensive section of their front. The outer crust, at least, of their strongest defensive positions has been cracked, and they are fighting in weakened though still formidable defences. Unofficial reports, of which there is no reason to doubt the accuracy, add to the significance of this measure of Allied victory by stating that the i Germans have used up great bodies of reserves (one report says 400,000 within a brief period) in their efforts to stem tho Allied onset. It is again an encouraging feature that tho Allies are' able from timo to time to make hea -J way in regions outside the present limits of their main offensive. The advance recorded to-day in Alsace is important, and the same no doubt applies to the progress made in Lorraine and on other sections of tho battle-line.

Bearing in mind what is known of the German losses in men—lato estimates placing the temporary and permanent losses, exclusive of sick, at something like half -the strength in trained men and reserves with which Germany entered the war—it is strictly reasonable to regard recent events in tho Western theatre as holding out a promise of the decisive defeat of the Germans on their present line at no verv distant date. It- is established on official authority that the Allies already have a considerable preponderance of numerical strength, their superiority amounting to a million men or more., As regards the British Army resources in men at the present time are considerably ahead of the supply of munitions and but every day evidence is furnished of the tremendous efforts that are being made to remedy these shortcomings, and it is_ to be remeiribercd that the great stimulus of the munitions campaign has been applied to a condition that was very 'Car from being one of stagnation. Before the munitions campaign opened in its present phase the production of munitions in Great Britain vas already being increased by leaps and bounds. Franco also is undoubtedly rapidly building up her military strength and offensive power. On all visible evidence it must be assumed that the Western Allies are now engaged, with ever-growing power] in an assault upon tho German line in which they do not mean to slacken until the invaders have been driven from French and Belgian soil. Beyond that point there will be a harder task to follow. The passage from one invasion to the other may very probably mark the supreme crisis of the war. But to suppose that the Allies are likely to fail in developing their present offensive until they have driven tho enemy back upon his own frontiers would be to take the gloomiest view of their prospects and a view for which the known facts afford no warrant.

Accepting the view that Russia will efficiently play her part in the war without any immediate or early departure from the strategy and tactics she has practised sine© the war began, developments in progress and in train should_ leave her with considerable forces in reserve, and with considerable latitude in' their employment. She cannot attempt a ''serious invasion of Germany, possibly not even a renewed invasion of Galicia, until a further weakening of the enemy or the development of her own resources in artillery and other equipment has increased her lelative striking power. To obtain the requisite strength in artillery may be no easy matter. Russia's own war industries are backward (though they are now being vigorously developed), and channels for obtaining supplies from abroad are ■restricted. The Baltic route seems to bo pretty effectually blocked meantime by the German fleet and minefields, anc' there is likely to be heavy; congestion on the long Siberian route, and at the one European port of Archangel, which was closed to shipping during four oi the winter months. On the other hand, Russia has a much shorter front to defend in her main theatre than sho had before the Austro-Ger-mans began their Galician drive. Transport problems, pressure in the Western theatre, and the drain upon German resources generally, all militate against a continued Gorman offensive ag.iinst any section of the shortened Russian line. In these circumstances the Russians should bo in a condition far removed from helplessness, and tho compression which the Austro-Germans have effected is likely to be followed by a rebound. Tho Russians may elect to use their strength meantime 111 rapid excursions against the enemy here and there along the line, keeping as many of his troops as posfiible engaged and subjecting them to the heaviest possible loss.

There is another available outlet for Russian strength which suggests interesting possibilities. Bearing ia mind the conditions under which the Russian armies arc operating, it : s by no means impossible that the Grand Duke Nicholas may dctach a section of his forces for an invasion of Turkey from the- Black iSea coast. The incentives to such a course are obvious. C'onstantinimilb, f.(i« nkiictivs of th<?. Dni'danin all likoUJioo.d

destined to Ijc a Russian prize, and Russia will naturally be eager to play a prominent part in wresting this last and most important I'ooLiiold in Europe from the Turks. Tim question of war supplies has an equally nutent hearing. With the Dardanelles and Bosphorus open .Russia would he able to obtain'munitions of war by imieli more commodious and expeditious channels than are now available. The conquest of Turkey, a big consideration in itself, would also bring Russian victory in the main Eastern theatre definitely ncare.r.

Auikadv Russia has done something to assist the Allies who are attacking the Turks at the Dardanelles. Her warships have obtained a more or loss definite command of tho Black Sea, they have bombarded the Bosphorous forts, and harried tho 'Turkish coal-ports on the Asiatic coast. The reported presence of German submarines at Constantinople opposes a certain hazard to the transportation of a Russian army from Odessa to Turkey, but against the submarines Russia can set a fairly strong flotilla of torpedo craft. With its risks, the enterprise offers advantages which should more than compensate them. The opinion said to be. held by the German General Staff that the campaign in tho Gallipoli Peninsula has reached a condition of stalemate is perhaps not fo very far removed from the facts. As tho position has been disclosed it seems impossible that the most magnificent efforts by the British, French, and colonial forces can overwhelm the resistanco of the Turks on their short and easily-defended linens until their as yet ample resources in artillery ancl munitions have been depleted. Quicker results might bo attained by broadening out the operations and landing troops at other points thin those now occupied, but Britain and France are bound to treat'the operations at the Dardanelles as a secondary campaign, and cannot afford to employ such forces thero as would materially reduce their strength in tho main Western theatre. Russia, probably, can better afford to provide the army necessary to quickly overwhelm the Turks, and —the problems of transport in the Black Sea once overcome—she should be able to reach Constantinople by a land campaign much more easily than tho Allies, who are now fighting a hard battle at the Dardanelles.

A Beelin communique, forwarded by way of Copenhagen, states that no Order of Merit has been conferred upon the commander of the submarine which sank the Lusitania, but that this honour has been awarded to the commander of U2l, which made the three-thousand-mile trip to the Dardanelles, resulting in the sinking of two British battleships If the announcement is correctly rendered, it is an interesting example of German stupidity. The sinking of the Lusitania was hailed and acdlaimed in Germany as a mighty achievement, and the withholding of an honour from the commander of the submarine which sank her can only he regarded as a clumsy confession of an underlying sense of guilt and crime. # * * H To-day's cablegrams contain a call from tho men at tho front to which the poorest citizens may easily respond. Newspapers are wanted by the wounded New Zealanders and Australians in hospital at Cairo—no doubt they will be equally welcomed by men in other hospitals, at Malta and elsewhere. Newspapers once read are usually tossed aside, but here is a chance to put them to a worthy use. By tho men at the front and in hospital they will be prized as a- link with their homeland which nothing else could supply. Newspapers from home are the next best thing to letters from home, as all who have been away from their country for any length •>[ turn 1 are well aware. There shoi'd Le no great difficulty in inducing a,- few hundred, or a few thousand, families in the Dominion to make a practice of saving their n'aily and weekly newspapers between mails and expending a few pence upon their transmission to the soldiers at the front. It is a practice which will afford an excellent outlet for the patriotism and enthusiasm of children.