PROGRESS OF THE WAR

Dominion, Volume 8, Issue 2484, 10 June 1915, Page 4

PROGRESS OF THE WAR

The resignation of the American Secretary of State brings the possibility oi war between the United States and Germany perceptibly nearer, more particularly as Mr. Bryan has made it known that his resignation was dictated by his opposition to President Wilson's policy towards Germanv. He has resigned because he favours peaco and dcprecates "any action"—a phrase of exceedingly wide scopes-likely to lead to complications, presumably the kind of complications that may possibly culminate in war. Mr. Bryants reputation for eccentricity robs his action of some of the significance it might otherwise hold. On what is known about him it is quite conceivable that he might take alarm at a shadow, and resign as a protest against war long before war was in sight. Making every allowance for possibilities of this kind, however, it is quite reasonable in' the circumstances to assume that the resignation has some real significance, and that the United States Cabinet has jettisoned its peace-at-any-price member because there is an actual possibility of war. There is no reason to suppose that Mr. Bryan has played any leading part in the events leading up to the crisis which now exists, or that he has controlled anything more than incidental details of the wonderfully tolerant policy adopted by the United States in fa co of Germany's campaign of criminal aggression against American ships and her murder of American citizens. President Wilson and not Mr. Bryan controls and directs the foreign policy of the United States in these days of crisis. But within these limits Mr. Bryan's resignation is still significant. Since bimetallism dropped into the background he has been above all things a strenuous advocate and exponent of peace-at-any-price theories and the author of panaceas' designed to make peaco universal. Though President Wilson is a man of, a very different stamp it has almost seemed at times that he should be ranked in the same class as Mr. Bryan where questions of peace and war are concerned. Latterly this idea has gone overboard. Recent developments in connection with American Notes and representations to Germany have indicated that the President's policy of watchful waiting does not preclude the possibility of ultimate action. On the known facts it may be inferred with some confidence that Mr. Bryan has resigned because the day of fads and theories and delays, which are of no avail against Germany's ruthless policy, is drawing to an end and the day of action is at hand. The Secretary of Late departs from office a lonely figure. His defection need not be regarded as evidence of divided counsels nor as in any way invalidating the proud declaration made by President Wilson a couple of months ago that if the United States entered the war it would do so as a united nation. I * * # ft | Probably the position is accurately summed up in the statement that tho American Press generally approves of the resignation, hoping that the, result will be a stronger and more vigorous policy towards German infractions of international law. Little new light is thrown upon the progress of negotiations, but the news that another American Note has been dispatched to Germany awakens possibilities. In the past American Notes have been associated with temporising and delay, but as matters are developing it is likely that tho latest Note will insistently press demands only to be met by an abandonment of the worst features of the German submarine campaign. If the prevailing temper of tho German rulers and people has been correctly represented American insistence is likely to provoke an emphatic response.

Even if accurate information were available as to the extent to whioh the Entente Powers have been drawing upon for war supplies it "would still bo difficult to measure the far-reaching opened up by the prospect of American intervention in _ the war. Entering the war the United States would present the spectacle of a belligerent possessing almost illimitable resources, but hampered by the fact that they are to a very great extent undeveloped and not immediately available. It is calculated that there are 15,000,000 men of military age in the United States, but the troops immediately available in tho event of war would number only about 60,000 regulars and 80,000 or 90,000 partly-trained National Guard. A certain number of trained soldiers could.bc re-enlisted, but for the rest little has been done towards the formation of an array beyond the encouragement of riile shooting. On the other hand, the. United States would throw a powerful navy into the scale. Apart, from ships under construction, some of \fhich may be near completion, it *!■ down J*&t fqw armed with .ten Itkcii

guns—and 24 pra-DreadnoughtsVand old battleships (six of them in bin; first lino). There are, in addition, fairly strong cruiser squadrons and destroyer ilotillas, and forty or more submarines, some of them of a highly developed type. Together, with a small army and a strong navy, America has an immense capacity for turning out munitions of war, and her industries capable of meeting war demands havo been immensely stimulated during tho past ten months. According to an Australian wrilor, who has drawn his facts from American trade jour- , nals, the money-value of war materials ordered in the United States (and much of it delivered), up to tho end of Januavv, exceeded £100,000,000. Some'of the main items were: 1,100,000 rifles, 15,000,000 pounds of explosives, 300,000,000 cartridges, 200 armoured motor-cars, 900 6-inch guns, 40 9-inch guns, twelve 15-inch naval guns, 6,000,000 kegs of horseshoes, 60,000 tons of steel for shells. America has also supplied immense quantities of _ clothing, transport vehicles and animals, and food. Knowledge that these supplies (since, of course, largely added to) havo been flowing into the countries of her enemies no doubt goes fa* to account for Germany's attitude towards the United States, but it will nevertheless be sheer madness on her part to goad that country _ into declaring war. The result might be to cut off some supplies would at worst be gradual, but there would be no relaxation in the total pressure bearing tipon Geri'he reduction of American supplies would at worst be gradual, for it would take the United States a long timo to raise and train an' army on tho modern scale, and in the interval the Western Allies would bo, able to readjust their own arrangements and make some provision for Eussia, the country which would feel most severely any stoppage of American supplies.

At time of writing the statement from Vienna. that v tho Anstrians aro within nine miles of Lemberg still lacks confirmation. The situation in Galicia is therefore not cleared up, but it remains critical in view of the admitted fact that the enemy havo crossed the Dniester, south of Lemberg. A Russian message declares that there are 40 German army corps in Galicia (about 1,500,000 men), which, reads very much like an exaggeration. It adds that the battle will last another month. This is much more easily accepted. After tho proofs they have given of their quality it may be taken for granted that the Russians will continue their dogged resistance almost indefinitely, in Galicia or beyond Galicia.

A striking bird's-eye view is given by a correspondent of The. rimes of the conflict in Flanders and Northern Franco, where the energies of the combatants in the Western theatre aro cOnoentrated for the time being. While the British, French, and Belgians are firmly holding the enemy in check in Flanders, tne French fdr weeks past have been battering the German line in Northern Franco (northward from Arras), and a'-re fiercely fighting their way towards Lens and Vimy, that is to say they are pressing forward on a four-mile front, with its southern extremity five miles north of Arras. On this section of the front new progress is reported daily, and continuing as at present the French will ultimately lay hold of the principal railways south and west of Lille. According to the correspondent the Gorman army under the Crown Prince o£ Bavaria, which holds this section of the front, has been reinforced with the finest troops, and a frantic effort is being made to stay the French advance. In spite ,of all the French are proving irresistible in the warfare of bombs and bayonets, and in tho subterranean conflicts for the elaborate strongholds which the Germans have constructed to defend their line. The enemy is thus in the position of being unable to roll back an attack which immediately threatens an iroporant point on his main line of communications, and at the samo time is reduced elsewhere to helpless inactivity. Accepting the vio'w that the Allies, unreigning conditions, are in a position to accumulate reserves of ammunition as well as to continuously increase the strength of their armies, this is a state of affairs which gives solid reason for satisfaction. Various theories are afloat as to tho line of action that will be adopted by the Allies in the immediate _ future—one of the most interesting that a. series of assaults will be launched against various sections of the German front—but what■ever tho actual policy adopted may be thero can be little doubt that the Allies have already established an ascendency which is likely to V.e made moro pointedly apparent before many weeks havo passed. * * * *

According to a correspondent of the Daily Chronicle at Athens, the Allies have continued their general offensive in the Gallipoli Peninsula to such good effect that an advance of three miles has been registered on the southern line. This, of course, must await confirmation.. General Hamilton's recent dispatch held out no hope of such an advance being aohieved in the space of a few days, and it is possible that the message is merely a belated and mutilated version of the official dispatch announcing an advance on a front of three miles,. A forward movement of three miles from the line on which attack opened would carry the Allies well beyond the Turkish stronghold of Aohi Baba and to within about four miles of the Narrows at Kilid Bahr. * * * *

One' message states that the German submarine U23, which torpedoedthe battleships Triumph and Majestic, has arrived at Constantinople. The whole story may be an enemy fabrication, but it is not inherently impossible. U23 could make the passage of the Dardanelles at loss risk than the British submarines which have achieved the same feat, because hor commander would doubtless be posted as to the location of the Turkish mines. At the same time the risk might not have been taken but for the activitv of the Allied warships in scouring the Turkish external coast, with a view to the destruction ot' submarine depots. According to Jane U23 is a boat of the 1912-13 programme, with a speed of 14 knots on the surfaeo and 8 knots submerged, and a cruising radius.of 2000 miles. Her actual cruising range may have been coucoaled or her jiumber may have been conferred on a newer submarine. It is not impossible that such a boat as the original U2.1 destroyed the two British battleships. It was reported the other that the Triumph was stationary when she was struck, and in that case she would ho bh easy target, for surpmo attack tu. auy submarine.