PROGRESS OF THE WAR

Dominion, Volume 8, Issue 2468, 22 May 1915, Page 4

PROGRESS OF THE WAR

Italy's declaration of war opens up prospects as satisfactory to Great Britain and her Allies as they must be disheartening to the members of the Austi'o-German combination which has done so much to lower the standards of civilisation in pursuing its insane projects of world dominion. The action of Italy against her former Allies must be accepted in the first instance as an appeal to the sword in support of her own national aspirations—a bold stroke for the redemption of unredeemed Italy —but it is. also indirectly an affirmation of the cause in which all the Entente Powers are fighting. The effects of her intervention will be farreaching, aiid indeed it is not yet possible to measure them with confidence, but it goes without saying that Italy's appearance in the field, even in its immediate significance, is a big additional guarantee of the ultimate overthrow of the Germanic Alliance.

The fighting strength of the Italian Army is not exactly known—nearly three months ago the Governtaent prohibited the .publication of news of military preparations—but it is certainly.not less than a million and a recent estimate has placed the total as high as 1,750,000 men. Training her available citizens of military age. as other nations aro doing, Italy could eventually place a considerably larger army in tho field. In naval strength Italy has a preponderance over Austria in effective chips of practically every class. The Italian Navy may be able to render useful service to the Allies at the Dardanelles if it is not employed instead against the Austrians on the Adriatic seaboard. The voting upon the Bill conferring war-powers upon the Italian Government supplies the best possible evidence that Italy is acting as a united nation; In Committee the Bill was approved by 367 votes to o<], and subsequently the Chamber carried it by 407 votes to 74.

Although Italy's declaration Ims been long delayed, there, has lately been little dtfubt of her ultimate decision. Reports regarding the failure of Austro-Italian negotiations, followed by Ihe reinstatement of the Sausdija Government, and the retirement into the background of Signor Giolitti—exponent of U6uh'olir.i. Um Gop&uam&Ueu wfcusdv has flow

been reached. The spirit manifested by the Chamber of Deputies at its opening sitting finally resolved all doubts. Prior to tho declaration of war the Salandra Government) had made its position perfectly plain.. Extracts from the Green Book which it has added to the multi-coloured library issued by the various.Powers since tho war began, showed that a final rupture in diplomatic negotiations with Austria had occurred. Prom these extracts it would appear that tho Green Book contains no surprises. The negotiations between Austria and Germany on the one hand and Italy on the other were conducted throughout with a- remarkable absence of secrecy. Even the_ fact that Italy, failing to obtain satisfaction of her demands, had on May 4 denounced the Treaty with Austria, was reported some days ago. * * * * A fact which stands out from the story of the Austro-Italian negotiations is that both parties were willing; to spend time in discussions which thoy knew to be fruitless. Austria was evidently unwillirig to pay the price of Italian neutrality, Dut no doubt desired to postpone as long as possible a formidable addition to the circle of her enemies. The Italian Government was equally inclined to delay, partly perhaps from indeoision and partly because it felt that the time_ had not arrived to strike. At all times there was a wide gap. between the Austrian and Italian proposals which seems never to have been within measureable distance of being bridged. Italy, according to the Green Book, besides asking that Trieste and its hinterland of the Istrian Peninsula should be made an independent State, demanded the Trentino and a section of Austrian territory (Friuli) beI tween the Trentino and Istria, and continued possession of Valona, the Albanian jiort which she now holds tentatively. Austria offered a portion of the Trentino (retaining a strip of that territory which would still have left in Jier hands an open sally-port through tho Italian northern frontier), and a small portion of the Istrian Peninsula, north of Trieste, in itself of little value. In return for these very limited benpfits Austria demanded a free hand in thi> Balkans and Albania. It was a condition of the Austrian concessions that they should be made after tho war, under an Austro-German guarantee.

Events have shown that an Aus-tro-German guarantee is worthless, but irf any case it must have been mad© manifest to-Italy very early in the negotiations that if unredeemed Italy was to be redeemed it must; be redeemed in war. Her demand for a- secure northern frontier was evaded, and asking for a foothold on the eastern coast of the Adriatic she was invited to resign all hopes of effective expansion in that region. An opinion which has often been tentatively expressed was thus fully confirmed. Italy had to choose between asserting in war her claims to an extension of her frontiers which would confirm and consolidate her position as Great Power, or accept a Mess dignified position and The theories of the so-c&ll-ad practical statesmen, like Signor Giolitti, who a-ssorted that Italy could obtain satisfaction of her national aspirations by peaceful negotiations, Were put to the test and proved visionary. No doubt beforo' coming to a final decision Italy arrived at an understanding with tho Entente making satisfactory provision for the redemption of unredeemed Italy. Her claims to .the Trcntifio are undisputed so far as the Entente is concerned, and it is likely that they will be conceded also in reference to the Istrian Peninsula, with the ports of Trieste and Pola. More difficult questions may arise regarding the Dalmatian seaboard of the Adriatic, below the Istrian Peninsula. Here Italian and Slav claims are to some extent in conflict, for Dalmatia is peopled by Groats, a race closely akin to the Serbs. Ally, questions that arise in this connection, however, should not be very difficult of solution. Italy's desires* where tho eastern seaboard of the Adriatic is concerned, are dictated mainly by military and strategic considerations. She desires stroflg naval ports whioh would ehablo her to safeguard her weak eastern frontier. The southern Slavs (including the. populatioh_ of Seirvia), on the other hand, chiefly need and desire comineroial access to the seaboard, and it should be comparatively easy to formulate an understanding and territorial adjustment by which both Italian and Slav claims will be iullv met.

» « * * Fob months past Austrian and Italian armies navo been entrenched on either side of the northern and north-eastern frontiers of Italy, and doubtless they are by this time in conflict, Fighting Italy alone, Austria would undoubtedly strike first through the Trentino. where she is already well past the principal mountain barrier and within a oouple of days' march of Venice. Being so fully occupied elsewhere, however, Austria, however dearly she might desire to strike a deadly blow at Italy, may find it advisable to pursue a less enterprising policy. It is hot unlikely that the first great battles may be fought further east, as the result of an Italian invasion of the territory _ lying immediately north of the Istrian Peninsula; This view, is favoured by Dr; E. J. Dilan authority of standing with considerable knowledge of the local circumstances. Writiiig about six weeks ago, he expressed the opinion that Austria, in the event of war with Italy, would confine herself to the defensive. He added that Austrian military experts obviously assumed that Italjjr would direct her efforts, not against the Trentino. but against that part of the unredeemed territory which is situated north-west of Trieste. Here the Austrians liaye constructed elaborate defences opposite the Italian frontier atad concentrated large bodies of troops. _ At Laybacli alone, a city foi'fcy miles east of the Italian frontier, which will serve as a base, the Austriahs months ago liad assembled 150,001) men. Another army of 100,000 men had been stationed at Poll, the fortress .and naval base at- the southern end of the Istrian Peninsula, and this place has been put into an effective state of, defence. By this time these forces, have no doubt been largely increased.

It is possible, of course, that the Austriails liavo misinterpreted Italian iiitentiohs, but an eastward, as against a northern invasion, has obvious attractions from the Italian point of view. Invddiug the Ti'eiitino the Italians irt the first instance would have Id force a strong mountain barrier, and if they achieved their purpose might have to .cope, hot. duly with the Austriails/' fcU with German troops. Bavaria lies jpuwrfifttt!* btotlftp ths Tfyol nad .U Uie .vrS*6 aVai liblo a He,

fensive concentration could be effected very rapidly. On the other hand conduoting a successful invasion to the east and south, the Italian armies would take the Austrian naval ports, and the "bottled-up" Austria i Navy, in rear, and would ultimately effect a, junction with Scvvia and with other Balkan Powers that might enter the war, as they are now very likely to do. All things considered the invasion of the Trentino may very probably be judged a matter that can wait. Assuming, as is no doubt the case, that a defensive hue south of the Trentino can be held fairly easily against the Austrians, Italian troops might be mere profitably employed meantime in co-opera-tion with the French in Alsa-re. These, however, are merely possibilities which will soon be resolved by unfolding events. * * * * From the standpoint of Great Britain and her.Allies, Italian intervention has an all-important bearing upon the Balkan problem in general j and upon the main and subsidiary campaigns against Turkey. Hopes j of a well-knit Balkan Confederation acting in concert, with tho Entente j against both Austria and Turkey, have so far failed to materialise, but Italy's aetion opens up brighter prospects than have hitherto existed that something of this kind may soon be an accomplished fact. It may be accepted without question that tho Balkan nations not as yet involved are guided in their policy by consideration of the military risks of joining in the war and the prospects of territorial gain and loss. This applies equally to Greece, which cherishes friendly sentiments to-' wards the Entente, as to Bulgaria and Rumania, whose friendship is more doubtful. There are some awkward questions still unsettled _ between the different Balkan nations, but in its broad features the existing situation offers each and all of them a prospect of territorial gains and a readjustment of territory and affairs which would lasting peace in their hitherto disturbed corner of the world. The effect of Italy's intervention upon the Balkan nations will so soon be resolved that it is hardly worth while speculating about it, but obviously very important possibilities are opened up. Realised to the full these possibilities may mean nothing less than Rumanian armies pouring over the passes into Eastern Hungary, and Greece and Bulgaria ranged as additional enemies against Turkey. The next move probably rests with Bulgaria. Remaining inactive, sho will pursue a dog-in-the-manger policy to her own loss, but if sho strikes at Turkey from the north she will not only advance her own interests and those of her neighbours, but will promote such an arrjty of forco against Turkey as will ensure tho speedy downfall of that country and, incidentally, Very greatly simplify the Dardanelles campaign. * » * * In Galicia the Russians are still fighting desperately to maintain their foothold on tho River San, and so far, apparently, with success. Though assailed by a tremendous concentration of artillery they report no worse fortune as yet than tho loss of some advanced trenchos on oile section of the front. At Jaroslav and on both banks of the San, they state,, they are pressing back the Germans. Reference to "both banks" of the river might be read as meaning that the Germans had forced the passage, but it is equally likely that tho remark applies to the region south of Przomysl where tho Russian line was drawn back from the San a good many days ago. * * # * The emphasis laid in somo recent messages upon the German retreat across the Yser may easily give rise to a faise impression. The retreat as yet is merely a withdrawal from one or two positions on the western bank of the Yser Canal which they gained at tho height of the terrific assault upon the Allied line which only abated a day or two ago. Together with the continued progress of tho Allies in Northern France and that of tho Belgians near Dixmude, the Gernian retirement across the Yser Canal must be accepted as an indication of waning poWei'j but there is no positive evidence as yet that the Germans contemplate an early rfetreat of any importance on the Western line.