PROGRESS OF THE WAR

Dominion, Volume 8, Issue 2447, 28 April 1915, Page 6

PROGRESS OF THE WAR

A great battle—one of tha greatest of the war—is still raging in Belgium, but in its broad-effect to-day's news goes to show that the Germans have been" definitely blocked in their latest attempt to force the passago of the Yser Canal. The position as it stands (or rather as it stood, presumably, a day or two ago) is very clearly outlined in a dispatch from Sir John French. The Germans, as they claimed yesterday, have captured the village of St. Julicn, which was inoluded in the British-line, but the Commander-in-Chief is nevertheless able to state that the ijeue'al situation remains unchanged. J St. Julicn is a- village three miles trom lpreson the road which runs rortheast from"thafc place to Poelcappcllo. Its capture ■ presumably means nothing more than- that British progress north-east from the Canal has been arrested for the time being.' From south of St. Julien the British line runs on the one hand west to the Canal, and on the other turns south, running east of Ypres. Against this eastward-facing section of tho British line the Germans appear to have hurled their assaults,\n vain: Sir John French reports that attacks in this locality were beaten offjn spite of the fact that tho Germans again employed asphyxiating gases. There is no indication that tho Germans have appreciably improved their position north of the British, flank, when they are engaged with the French and Belgians along the line of the Yser Canal or close to it. Though it tells of one minor Gorman sucecss in the oapture of St. Julieu, iSir John French's dispatch discloses a general failure on the part of lbs Germans' to press .their assiult io any decisive point.-' j # * * *

A totally different story is told by the Germans in an official message from Berlin, which contains the statement: "We still hold Lizcrne " This is a claim that, in spite of Allied assertions to the contrary, they have made good t the passage of- the Yser Canal. Lizerne is a village on the western bank, about five miles north of Ypres. The first British official accounts of the battle stated that the Germans captured Lizerne on Saturday (April 17), but added that the place was retaken (apparently almost immediately). French and British official messages have since reported victorious progress on this section of the front, and further reports to-day make the same claim. It is, therefore, tolerably safe to tako the German assertion as a belated item of news contradicted by later happenings.

It would be extremely interesting to know the precise dat-o of the events described in the later dispatches, and lack of this knowledge detracts slightly from their value, but it is reasonable to infer that the events are not many days old. Taking this view, the position disclosed is. that the Germans have achieved nothing more, in something like ten days (probably more) of the heaviest and most desperate fighting, than to drive a saljent into the Allied line threatening,' Cut not passing, the . Ysor Canal. Circumstantial accounts of the fighting do not suggest that they are likely to penetrate the main defensive line of the Allies and open the road to the coast, upon which their hopes are sot. On the contrary it is shown that all sections of the Allied forces_ engaged, British, French, and Belgians, nave met the terrible thrust of the German legions with dogged and unflinching fortitude. There is no longer any question of a. surprise-stroke. The Allies have had ample time to bring up all reserves available for the defence of the threatened section of their line, md tn meet t'meentrati-jn with son.Mmfcvafocii}, -Whatever it Iwvft

been in its opening stages the battle is now an open test of strength with a full exertion of power on either side. * * * * It has always been the German policy to attempt to achieve their object by a sudden offensive stroke in overwhelming strength. On that account the fact tftat they now find themselves condemned, on the Yscr Canal, to a long and wearing assault on a prepared enemy, is strong presumptive proof of Uio correctness of the statement, made in one cablegram, that the activity of the Allies on other sections of the Western front upset the German calculations, and forced them to disclose their hand in a premature attack. It has liot been concealed that the assault on the Yser line all but succeeded in any case, and with more time for preparation it might quite conceivably have succeeded and altered the whole aspect of the Western campaign. This, however, is only another way of saying that the terrific pressure exerted by the Allies along the Western front has already der ranged the German plans to an cx,no'' as . yet determined, but which may easily prove to be vital.

To regard the battle in Belgium only from the standpoint of its local and immediate importance would, of course, be to take too narrow a" vl ? w \ mlls t be considered in its relation to the Western campaign, and to the war, as a whole. It is already plain that the conflict is being waged on such a scale that it must profoundly affect the future progress of the war even if it does not operate as a decisive factor in determining its final result. Very great interest, therefore, attaches to developments in other parts of the Western theatre and in tho Eastern theatre, while the Germans are developing their supreme effort in Bel-. Si»m. In the main, but with one notable exception, these developments are distinctly hopeful in their bearing upon the prospects of the Allies. The exception is the. loss by .tho French of portion of an extremely important position in Southern Alsaoe. Here, having forced their way through the Vosges. the French occupy a series ; of hill positions dominating the Alsatian Plain. Hartmannsweiler Kopf is one of the most advanced of these hill strongholds. It has changed hands more than oncc since the war began, but a month ago the French definitely gained and held the summit, in a particularly desperate battle. Today it_ is reported that they have ljeon dislodged from the, summit though they still hold trenches within about a hundred yards, from which they captured it, a month ago, in tho space of seven minutes. For the rest, to-day's dispatches show that furious German assaults at various points of the Western line were everywhere beaten off with slaughter. The most important of these attacks appears to have been delivered in tho region south-east of Verdun, where the continued advance of the French and their capture of dominating hill positions menace the frontier of Lorraine. #*# - *

It must be regarded as still well within the bounds of possibility, that the enormous German 'concentration against the Yser may enable the Allies to uncover a weakness elsewhere in the German line and pierce it. For the moment the initiative is with the Germans, but their assaults at .other points can only be regarded as subsidiary to their supreme effort in Belgium. On the other hand the first business of the Allies is to make good the Yser line. Only when that is definitely guaranteed , will. they be free to profit by any weakness in other parts of the German front, due to the concentration at that point. No definite conclusion can dc drawn from the results of the detail fighting along thcfront so far reported. Tho check sustained bv the French in Alsace is important, uecause tho effective occupation of that province is essential if the Allies are to advance through Lorraine to assault the German frontier defences of the Sa-ar and Rhine. Though many factors are still uncertain it is plain that an exceedingly critical stage of the war has been reached. As to the developments of the immediate future very much depends upon the extent to which the Germans have drawn upon, their final reserves available for the summer campaign and upon tho distribution of their forces in tho two main theatres.

Inferences under this head must be more or less speculative, and only the test of events can show what they are worth. There can be little doubt, however,'that the Germans are intent upon massing all available strength in the Western theatre, even at some saerifioe on the opposite front, and that they will continue to concentrate as much, as they dare of their reserve strength in Flanders. The effort to foree the Yser has already attained such a magnitude as to make it unlikely that it will be relinquished in favour of a new attempt upon some other objective. In the early days of the war Germany was able to strike at one objective after another, but in face of the enormously increased strength of the Allies any repetition of this policy, with its fearful .drain upon resources, would be desperate taetics indeed. Certain information on tho point is lacking, but Germany cannot well have men to squander as she did in the opening passages of the war. It has been estimated by Mr. Hilaibe Belloc that exclusive of her then existing armies (including reserves) available for service, Germany when the war began Md an available reserve of untrained meii numbering, approximately, 2,400,000. Basing his tentative conclusions upon the best available evidenoe Mr. Belloc is of opinion that these men were trained in three batches of, 800,000. Of these ho considers that the first group of 800,000 took tho field in the late autumn of last year, and the second group in the late winter, leaving tho third to be brought into action at the end of this month or . the beginning of May.

Beports of the rapid assemblage of German reinforcements in Belgium, together with the continued activity of the enemy at other sections of the ,line, strongly suggest that the third and final reserve group has already been drawn upon, but here another factor _ enters—the possibility that the reinforcements may have been drawn in whole or part,from the Eastern theatre. In this connection a message from Petrograd is highly suggestive. It'declares that the Germans are massing troops in the Cracow region and in the Carthe reinforcements including large forces of,new levies, and that they are > denuding the Narcw region (opposite the_ southern. frontier of East Prussia) of all units that can be spared. This leaves the posnibilifcy open tha.t Germany may eaveetalsecl.au ooorw bold throw by

transporting large bodies of veteran troops to the Western, theatre, contenting herself with acting on the defensive in die East. In that event the German stroke against, the Yser may bo only the beginning of their crowning effort in the war.

Apart from its bearing upon the interdependence of the campaigns in the two main theatres the Russian message points to a vital tlio Eastern theatre. After the breakdown of their last offensive eastward from East Prussia, it remained possible that the Germans might, again strike at Warsaw by a southward advance from ■ the NiemenJfarew front, south-east and south of East Prussia, from.which they are now reported to' be withdrawing troops. It has throughout been their aim to avert a direct attack upon their rich south-eastern province of Silesia, and this has been the inspiration of their successive efforts to reaoh and capture Warsaw. Hold-; ing that city they would have paralysed the Russian campaign throughnut Poland, because Warsaw, apart from its dominating position on tho Vistula, is the supremely important junction from which practically the whole of the Polish railways radiate. If their intentions have been correctly divined in the message referred to the Germans have now abandoned hope of reaching Warsaw, and will henceforth bend their main efforts upon resisting' the direct advanoe of the Russians on Cracow and Silesia, and in assisting to hold the Carpathians. For a time this may release heavy reinforcements for service in the West.

Accounts of actual fighting in the Carpathians disclose no strikingly new development. There is an unconfirmed, and unconvincing, Austrian report that the Russians are in 'flight from the Uszok Pass. In ono, rcspcct only this report agrees with others of Russian origin: -it, indicates that tho principal Austria-Ger-man effort is being made about forty miles east of the Uszok Pass, where they have been trying for weeks past to strike north ana west from tho mountains, and cut across the railways constituting the Russians'" communications. Success in this enterprise would, of course, necessitate a retreat, if not tho llight which the Austrians report, but there is no reason to suppose that it has yet succeeded. * * * * . Rumours regarding decisive events at the Dardanelles are definitely confirmed to-day by official reports that portion of the Allied Army has successfully landed and entrenched in the Gallipoli Peninsula, and that the landing continues. The Turks evidently offered a stout resistance, but their defence was borne down by tho combined assault of the Fleet and the landing foroes. It is probable that this dispatch, like others relating to the Dardanelles, has been considerably delayed, and that the Allied assault may be already far advanced. While it lasts, the conflict in tho Gallipoli Peninsula.is likely to be as desperately contested as any that the war has witnessed, .for tho Turks are well supplied with mobile guns and howitzers. As the assault, upon the Dardanelles rapidly nears its culmination, the Russians are again bombarding the Bosphorus, an indication that tho plans of the Allies havo been excellently concerted.