PROGRESS OF THE WAR.

Dominion, Volume 8, Issue 2387, 17 February 1915, Page 4

PROGRESS OF THE WAR.

Bepoets of artillery bombardments on the Western front are supplemented to-day by accounts of an engagement near La Bassce, in Northern France, in which the British hurled back a German attack and pursued the remnants of the attacking force into its own trenches._ No important change of position is reported at any point. In the Eastern theatre the Russians are slowly retiring from East Prussia and from Bukowina (at the eastern end of Galicia), but are again advancing through Western Galieia towards Cracow. **1 * * News of a wave of optimism in England regarding . the probable duration of the war would be more interesting if it were shown 'that any particular reason had appeared for a change of opinion on the subject. It is stated that a few months ago the prevailing opinion, based on Lord Kitchener's estimate, was that the war would last for_ three years, whereas now all sections of the people speak of an ending by tho autumn. The estimato of three years was probably never intended as anything else than an extreme one, but on the other hand it would be foolish to take it for granted that the war is bound to end by the autumn. The sensible thing to do seems to go on confidently, But without any slackening of effort, allowing speculations as to the duration of the war to stand over until it has reached such a stage as will furnish evidence upon which to base reliable conclusions. Confidence is undoubtedly warranted by the success of the Allies in West and East, and on the sea, but visible indications suggest that Germany could continue tho struggle on its present lines for some time to come—assuming, of course, that the German people were willing to make the sacrifice.

The statement of the Chancellor of the Exchequer that the Allies had only one-third of their strength in the field, and that the remainder would go forward at the earliest possible moment, no doubt relates only in part to definitely organised military reserves, and takes into account resources upon which no call has yet been made. At the same tim,e, the Allies in the Western theatre must have by this time built up very great reserves of strength. .They definitely arrested the German . advance in Flanders and France when they toere still greatly inferior in numbers _as compared with the German armies, and during the months of siege warfare have enjoyed full freedom to build up that "detached reserve" which, according to Mr. Hilaiiie Belloc, is the spul of French strategy.

* * * * It is no doubt true, as some of the British newspapers have suggested, that the German War Lords are trying to stiffen up their country to face a long war, but whether Germany will be allowed to carry on a long war is another matter altogether. Developments in Poland and the prospect of a great Allied offensive in the Western theatre alike suggest that she will not. The failure of the Germans to reach Warsaw—a. failure not likely to be redeemed in spite of the eager anxiety which the luiser is said to be manifesting in the subject—represents a definite stage in the progress of the Eastern campaign. It means that the Russians are free to pursue their deliberate advance upon the German frontiers, and have proved themselves more than able to hold their own in decisive conflict with their principal enemy. The new offensive from East Prussia is less important than the attempt to reach Warsaw across Central Poland, and is less likfely to obstruct or delay the Russian advance upon Silesia, which has at all times been_ their goal. When a great offensive in the West is added to the terrific strain of the Eastern campaign, mere dogged resistance will not serve Germany at any point. She will be called upon to fight even greater battles than she has recently lost in Poland. Although, to use a hackneyed phrase, the end is not yet in sight, there is reason to expect that the war will before long enter a decisive phase, which will preclude the possibility of its being dragged out to inordinate length.

A German success in Lorraine which was reported yesterday seems in the light of the fuller particulars furnished to-day to have been of minor importance. Fighting French advanced troops in Lorraine, north of Pont-a-Mousson, the Germans apparently captured a hill position, but later were partly dislodged, and now retain only a • portion of the ground that they won. The French m this region are steadily working round the flank of a German force which is thrown across the Woevre district, south of Verdun.. The Germans are established on the western side of the Mouse, at St. Mihiel, 20 miles south of Verdun, but elsewhere along the river the heights are held by the French, who are also ranged along the flanks of the wedge-shaped German position, both on north and south. It is in the southern movement, to which the message concerning the capture of Norroy hamlet and a neighbouring beacon relates, that the French so far have made the greatest progress. Their present advance is from Poiit-a-Mousson, wnich lies 23 miles east of St. Mihiel, across the Lorraine border, lying only five miles distant from Pont-a-Mousson on the north-east. The fortress of Metz, up oik which the German forces in the Woevre district arc based, is 18 miles north-north-west of Pont-a-Mousson.

The firm stand taken by Amorioa in regard to submarino attacks on merchant shipping presents a very great obstacle to the success of the threatened German blockade. Particulars of the American Notes_ to Great Britain and Germany, given to-day, show that while the United States has addressed only a mild remonstrance to Great Britain against the use of the American flag by British ships traversing blockaded waters, it holds Germany fully responsible for determining the nationality of ships attacked by its submarines, and practically threatens war if American ships arc so attacked. In effect this imposes a demand with which Germany cannot well comply cxccpl; by relinquisliing her projected blocktido. lo be effective, submarines must, strike suddenly, without inquiry, and without warning. That the use of ."jjJjmpjjLof.? is for this I'MW. V^aax.

patible with legitimate commerceraiding, has not troubled Germany at ail, but the reflection that the activities of her submarines may at any moment precipitate a war with America is likely to a-ct as a potent deterrent, in spite of all the braggadocio in which German newspapers at home and in America are indulging. _ * * * *

A "Russian message reporting a victory in tho Upper. San and progress in that region shows that tho advance through Galicia towards Cracow and Silesia is not so far forward as had been supposed. In fact, it is clear that sincc thoy last definitely indicated their position in Western Galicia, the Russians have retired for a considerablo distance before the Austro-German army which is covering Cracow. About two months ago the Russians reported that they held a line extending from Opatowec, a town on the northern border of Galicia, 35 miles north-east of Cracow, to Biecz, 45 mijles to tlje south-east. The Upper San runs north through Galicia, about 55 miles east of the Opatowecriiecz line, and it can only be assumed that ■ the Russians feU back over this distance without repeating the fact. They appear, however, to bo in possession of Tarnow, a railway junction 47 miles due east of Cracow, which was recently evacuated by the Austrians. The Russian front in Western Galicia must therefore bend sharply back from Tarnow to the line of the Upper San, 55 miles further east, and then from that fiver turn westward again to the Carpathians, in the neighbourhood of the Dukla Pass. /#**-*

Pbesitmablt the Russian movement against Cracow was arrested temporarily while the main issue of the oampaign for the time being was being fought out in the recent great battles west of Warsaw. The German stroke against that city, had it been driven home, would have struck at the heart of the Russian communications in Poland, and compelled a retirement all along the line. Now that the stroke has been fended off, another advance through Western Galicia may be expected. Meantime, the Russians, instead of occupying an irregular line across Western Galicia, about 40 miles east of Cracow, aTe at some points about a hundred miles east of that city.. In Northern Galicia, east and northeast of Cracow, however, they do not seem to have fallen back very far. Apart from _ the indications that tTfey are again in possession of Tarnow, fighting has recently been reported along the Nida, which enters the Vistula from the north, and a' little west of Tarnow. If the Russians have maintained their line in Northern Galicia from the confluence of the Nida and Vistula to Tarnow, they are in that locality within about 40 miles of Cracow. * *' * *

The Russians now claim that they are making forward progress .from the San, and that they have defeated the Austrians opposing their advance,' taking a thousand prisoners and some artillery. Other reports dealing with the Russian campaign tell mainly of unsuccessful AustroGerman attacks upon the Russian positions along the northern side of the Carpathians from 'the Dukla Pass eastward.