PROGRESS OF THE WAR.

Dominion, Volume 8, Issue 2382, 11 February 1915, Page 6

PROGRESS OF THE WAR.

The Germans, chafing under the firm hold of the Allies in west and cast,.are now stated to be contemplating a now offensive on both fronts. Military critics, according to a London cablegram, consider that the points of attack will probably be the Argonne. the neighbourhood of Bagatelle on the west, and in the other theatre East Prussia, whero General von Hindenbero is stated to be making extensive preparations for his next big move. As matters. now stand, the prediction of a German offensive on a big scale in the western theatre is somewhat unconvincing. It presupposes a heavy concentration of troops at a single point, which the Germans are hardly likely to risk in view of the continuous strain to which they are subjected all along the extended line in Flanders and France. The vigorous offensive with which they opened the war owed the measure of success it attained very largely to the fact that it was launched against enemies more or less unprepared. Now that the Allies have perfected their preparations a heavy German assault in the Argonne or elsewhere would probably play into_ their hands, as the German offensive against Warsaw has played into the hands of the Russians by absorbing the strength and energies of the German eastern armies and leaving their opponents frco to push enterprisingly ahead at other parts of the line. * '« * * Nevertheless the incentive to a heavy assault on the line now defended by the French in tho Argonne is obvious enough, for if it succeeded and the lino were pierced at this point the Allied position along the Aisnc cast and west of Reims would .be turned, and the way would be pßvnd foranpther German advanw to the Harnc. Bagatelle is situated

in the Argonnc, west of Verdun, and lias lately been tho scone of heavy fighting, which appears to he still going on, but there is no indication that the position of the Allies has been shaken in any way. Along the forest plateau of the Argonne they hold a line extending almost dne west from Verdun and reaching beyond the 'forest Ville-sur-Tourbe, which is situated 35 miles east of Reims and 30 miles west of Verdun. Fighting in the forest area, the Allies have during tho last month or two progressed northward for a few miles in tho Bois do Bolante, about midway between Verdun and Ville-sur-Tourbe, and all the efforts of tho Germans have so far failed to stem this slow but steady advance. * * * * A heavy Gorman assault in the forest area might quite probably re-sult-in the capture of some of the advanced posts on the Allies' front. That it would break the main defensive line is improbable. It would certainly mean a further heavy sacrifice of life, and'meantime the Allies would almost certainly seize the occasion to deliver the smashing counter-stroke upon such weak points as exist in the German lino for which their plans are shaping in any case.

* * *, *, • ■ Bearing in mind that the principal objective of the Russians in the Eastern campaign is not East_ Prussia, but Silesia, a concentration of German strength in East Prussia would presumably amount to a distinct modification -of the aggressive policy which General von Hindenberg has hitherto pursued. Doubtless it would involve an abandonment of tho battering assaults . repeatedly made by great masses _of troops on the Russians defending the entrenched lines west of Warsaw. That the offensive in this region has hitherto absorbed the main strength of the German armies is sufficiently evidenced in the comparatively rapid progress which the Russians have made in their advance upon the Prussian frontier'all along the line from the Vistula north and across the frontier in the extreme north. In view of the enormous strength of the Russian.- armies, _ it is unlikely that a German offensive could strike through Poland north of the Lower Vistula to a vital point at Warsaw. The advance from East Prussia lies through territory even poorer in railways than Central Poland, through which the German armies have penetrated to the Bzura and Rawka. In any ease, advance would involve such tremendous'outpouring of strength that it would not. only weaken the extended line of the German frontier from East Prussia to Silesia, but is probably incompatible with German necessities in the West. .. • On the other hand, if General von Hindenberg finds it necessary to rally his forces for the defence of East Prussia to repel an invasion instead of inaugurating a new offensive, the situation promises equally well for the successful prosecution of the Russian campaign. All the efforts of the Germans to break the barrier west of Warsaw have been decisively defeated. If instead of concentrating further strength ! at that point, they are compelled to. utilise it in East Prussia, then the time must be approaching when they will be driven to retreat ffbm Poland and restrict themselves wholly to the defence of their threatened frontiers.

Glimpses of fighting on the western front are given to-day, notably at Bagatelle, im the Argonne, and in the approach to La Bassee, but no important change of position is reported, and probably the . _ general situation remains much as it is described by a French correspondent, who states that in the ten days preceding February 6 there were a few actions in which comparatively small bodies were engaged on limited fronts, but without appreciable effect on tho main operations. That the war of attrition is proceeding on lines satisfactory to the Allies is indicated in the statement that the Germans lost a total _ of 4000 killed and 16,000 wounded 'in apparently useless attacks at various points on tie front, from. La Bassee to the plain of the Woevre (south of Verdun), during three days at the latter end of January. * ■ * * * A message _ from' Mr. Martin Donohoe (Daily Chronicle war correspondent), who is in' Bukowina, has a bearing upon events in the neighbourhood of the Dukla Pass, which were the subject of apparently .conflicting Austrian and Russian reports published yesterday. l , If Mr. Donohob's message is of later date (as to events) than the Austrian report claiming a victory in the DukLa Pass, followed by a Russian retreat, it contradicts these claims, for he states that fierce fighting continues both in the Dukla Pass and in other Carpathian passes further east. Since it is possible, however, tlat Me. Donohoe's communication relates to I earlier fighting than is mentioned in the Austrian report, the actual position of affairs in the vicinity of the Dukla Pass remains uncertain. In any case, Mr. Donohoe reports that the Ausfcrians, _ attacking in superior numbers, failed to penetrate the Russian lines. # * * * As a work of imagination, the Turkish communique, describing the attack on tho Suez Canal, is _ not without merit. The sententious statement that "some of our companies crossed the canal" is almost worthy of tho late Mark Twain, but evon the Turks to whom the communique is addressed may be expected to wonder what became of their companions. The assertion that the Ottoman force thoroughly reconnoitred the defences is not far from the truth, but the effort to pass off the raid as a mere reconnaissance will not go down with those who have been informed that the Turks transported bridging material to the bank of the canal. The production as a whole, obviously manufactured for home consumption, is chiefly interesting as indicating that hope of delivering another attack on the canal has not been abandoned, and I that the Ottoman main army may still have to be reckoned with. News has arrived of some casualties aboard the Philomel, the thirdclass cruiser borrowed from the Imperial Government to serve as a Now Zealand training ship and restored at the outbreak of war. Apparently the Philomel is a unit in the FrancoBritish squadron which assisted to defend the Suez Canal against the Turkish attack. Though an old ship, completed in 1892, the Philomel is quite capable of useful service in such circumstances. _ The Turks, it will be noticed, claim in their communique that they badly damaged a British cruiser, but the detailed reports of the Canal fighting include a statement that tbo .wa'rehlss e&gattMl aaa uadam&aaL

The fact that the wounded men are reported to be on board the Philomel would seem to suggest that the vessel is not greatly damaged. While the casualties on the New Zealand training vessel must be deplored, and the sympathy of all will go out to the relatives of the killed and to the wounded, it is still gratifying to learn that the Philomel has been able to play a part in the defence of this waterway, so vital to tho Empire's overseas trade. A message from Switzerland states that it is reported at Friedrichsj hafen (tho German airship station on Lake Constance) that the newest Zeppelin fell into the North Sea off Denmark, and was destroyed, with the loss of her crew. Suoh an event is not unprecedented in the career of .the German airships. In September, i 1913, Ll, a big naval Zeppelin, was. destroyed by stress of weather and collapsed into the sea near Heligoland, 14 members of her crew being drowned. Soon afterwards, L 2, then the _ latest of the Zeppelins, became ignited while cruising, and was destroyed with all hands. The disaster was attributed to a spark igniting tho gas with which the airship, was inflated.

Bulgaria, according to a report from Paris, is believed to have entered into a financial arrangement with Germany, whose action is intended to exercise a restraining influence on Rumania and Italy. It is indicated also that Bulgaria is holding her army in readiness. Apparently these portents are taken seriously in Franco, for. the Paris Temps warns Bulgaria of the danger of choosing the wrong path. With the example of Turkey before her eyes, Bulgaria should scarcely stand in need of such a warning, and it is somewhat difficult to believe that she has been foolish enough to place her fate in German handß, more especially as the Entente Powers have apparently asked nothing more of her- than that she should maintain neutrality. * *. * * A greater stir than the importance of the incident warrants seems to have been created in the English and American Press by the action of tho Admiralty in instructing the British steamer Lusitania to fly- the American flag when nearing Ireland, in order to deceive any German submarines that might be lying in wait to destroy her. It seems to be a sufficient answer to the protests which tho incident has aroused both in England and abroad that the Admiralty in so acting was unquestionably within its rights according to the principles of international law. German protests may bo dismissed with scant consideration. It would be carrying chivalry to the point of folly to grant any consideration in such. matters to a nation which has practically declared its intention of resorting to piracy and murder on the high seas, and in any case at least one German ship employed the self-same .stratagem in order to escape British. cruisers off the American coast, at the beginning of the war. The British protests strike a note of high patriotism, but leave aside the plain question whether it is wise to leave an unarmed merchantman exposed to the attack of an unscrupulous enemy, who pays no regard to the laws of war, when its safety can be secured by a stratagem of recognised validity. * * * * American objections are met ,_by reference to the . rules concerning stratagems in war recognised by international usage. Lawrence, in his Principles of Internationol Law, lays it down that stratagems are allowable in war provided they do not violate express or tacit understandings between the countries concerned. It is true that some limitations arc placed upon the use of stratagems, but they would not extend to the case of the Lusitania. _A shipof war, for instance # (again citing Lawrence) may approach another vessel under false colours (as the Emdendid), but it must run up its true.flag before it fires the first shot. It can never 'be a pleasant thing to shelter even an unarmed merchant-man-under an alien flag, but the stratagem which served the _ Lusitania was undoubtedly legitimate and sanctioned by the practice of various nations in' many previous wars.. It should not be overlooked that the course followed in the case of the Lusitania, if persisted with, must greatly embarrass Germany in her proposed • policy, of piracy against British merchantmen. - Despite her professions, she is hardly likely to Knowingly sink American trading vessels in the manner threatened, and her submarines will experience extreme difficulty in deter T mining whether vessels flying the American flag are really American ships or merely British vessels tricking them with a neutral flag. Hence this outcry.