PROGRESS OP THE WAR.

Dominion, Volume 8, Issue 2381, 10 February 1915, Page 4

PROGRESS OP THE WAR.

Recent reports of successful progress by the Russians in and south of the Ca-rpathians are to some extent upset to-day by news that they have sustained a check in that region. Yesterday they reported that having passed the mountains and entered Hungary, they had heavily defeated the Ausfcrians at Hezo Laborcz, capturing ten thousand prisoners. To-day the Austrians claim that they have defeated the Russians in a battle for the Dukla Pass and are pursuing a beaten enemy. Without specifically admitting this defeat, the Russians state that they are falling back in "the Southern Carpathians" and in Bukowina (the eastern extremity of Galicia), but that the fighting is proceeding in their favour. Passing over for th 6 moment the fact that armies do not usually fall back when the fighting is proceeding in their favour, it is obvious that these reports leave a good deal to the imagination. Accepting the Austrian story at its face value, however, it does not- follow that the Russians have necessarily been expelled from the region of Mezo Laborcz, though they have been defeated at the Dukla Fass. « *, » » The most convenient approach to Mezo Laborcz is noc_ by way of the. Dukla Pass (which pierces the mountains 90 miles east-south-east of Cracow), but along the railway, which passes through the mountains by way. of Lupkow, a mountain town 20 miles south-east of the Dukla Pass. It is possible, though in some degree open to doubt, that the Russians still hold this line, and a position_ at or near Mezo Laborcz, on the plains south of the mountains, though they have been driven back on the northern side of the mountains at the Dukla Pass. The possibility is discounted chiefly by the consideration that the Austrians would hardly venture to advance through the Dukla Pass if aj Russian force were conveniently posted to take them in rear as it would be at Mezo Laborcz. If the Austrian message is accepted, it must therefore be judged unlikely that any Russian force is so posted. * * * * • It is possible to construe the Russian message referred to either as a veiled and purposely obscure admission of an Austrian victory or as having no relation at all to fighting in the neighbourhood of Mezo Laborcz or the Dukla Pass. "Southern" is hardly definite as applied to the Carpathians, for the range runs generally east and west. The Dukla Pass is in almost the most northerly projection of the mountain chain, and if the message has_ any reference to fighting in this region the actual Russian statement must have been that they are falling back on the southern side of the Carpathians. It is much more likely that the Russian report refers only to the Eastern Carpathians; .where they trend southcast towards Bukowina, and to Bukowina itself. In. this easterly region the Russians have recently admitted falling back from the mountains to prepared positions on the northern side— taking an optimistic view of their operations in this region they , are drawing back into a fighting area ! vltiah will t>uit them bstUf than tl\a lUuslsiamk

•Unless later reports confirm the successful invasion of Hungary by the' Russians, to-day's news must be taken to indicate a cheek in this quarter. It implies that instead of pushing through the mountains to the invasion of Hungary, the Russians have to be content to hold their enemy on a fighting line immediately north of the mountains._ Even if this is the case, however, it in no way affects the main situation. The immediate invasion of Hungary does not necessarily form part of the Russian main plan of campaign, or at all events, is not essential to its successful prosecution. It is necessary that the Russians should bold the Austrians in check all along the line of the Carpathians, but the principal Russian objective is Silesia, and the all-important task devolving upon the the Austro-German armies in Galicia is that of stemming the Russian westward advance on Cracow, which is a Etepping-stone to Silesia.

Despite much ta'k of big AustroGerman armies devoted to the task of advancing north from the Carpathians to raise the siege of Przemsyl —the strong Galician fortress which has been invested for months past by the Russians—there is no real indication that the Austro-Germans are in a position to attempt this enterprise with any hope of success. While the invasion of Hungary is more or less in doubt, it is clear enough that the Russians are firmly holding the line of the Carpathians, and they should lie able to defeat any attempt at a northern advance. Even an Austrian victory in the Dukla Pass, assuming that it has gained, will alter the position very little, for this Pass lies 45 miles west of the longitude of Przemysl, which stands 48 miles almost due north of the Uszok Pass.

Lately it has seemed possible that tht Russians were marking time to some extent in Bukowina in expectation of a Rumanian invasion of Hungary. A report from Bukarest today throws cold water on the idea of Rumanian intervention, and asserts that Rumania's final decision is to remain ne'utral. This is in direct conflict with most of the reports which have come through lately concerning Rumania's attitude, and while it is definite in terms, the message rather'wears the appearance of having been manufactured for Austrian consumption. In part, it is based upon a statement in the; Vienna Press. All that can be said with certainty meantime is that Rumania has strong temptations to enter the war. The addition of Transylvania (the north-ea-stern' province of Hungary) to her territory, would add to her population some millions of people of kindred race,-who have suffered greatly under Magyar tyranny, and such an accession of territory would greatly strengthen the country from the standpoint of military defence. Rumania in fact offers one of the most striking examples of that suppression of national and racial aspirations for which Hapsbuiig tyranny has in so many cases been responsible, and she would be amply justified in throwing in her lot with the Entente in order to seek redress and tEe expansion of territory to which she has a natural claim. In any case, whatever tho fortunes of the moment may be in the fighting along the Carpathian Range, Russia should have no great difficulty in holding the Austro-German forces on that line while' pursuing her more important operations in western Galicia., ' * * *< * ' A later Petrograd message reports another Russian victory at Mezo Laborcz, resulting in the capture of 3500 prisoners and a number of machine-guns, In the circumstances the assertion "of the _ Austrian that they have gained a victory in the Dukla Pass must be received with a good deal of doubt.

At first glance a report that the Russians have captured strong positions at Kamion, 25 miles south-east of Plock, suggests an advance into Poland from the Lower Vistula, but Kamion is on the Bzura, about a mile from its junction with the Vistula, and is no doubt the strategic position which the Russians captured as a sequel to the big battle along the Bzura last week. . * * * * Unofficial prophecies of an early termination of the war have been fairly numerous lately, _ but while the position in the main theatres and elsewhere certainly affords no ground for pessimism, there is much to suggest that talk of the war Boon coming to an end is, to say theleast, decidedly premature.. Ignoring for the time being many factors important in themselves but not vital, .it may be said that the war will be brought to an end within a comparatively limited period only if Germany is successfully invaded on both fronts, and restricted, _ with, diminished resources, wholly to d«fence. The alternative is, a long continuation of the wearing-down process —the war of attrition—which might very well last not for months but for years. . * * • « At the moment optimism is fed largely upon the actual advance of the Russians in the Eastern theatre and the which the Allies are making for a -great offensive in the West. < Although they have to & great extent smashed the resistance of the, Austrian armies and occupied the greater part of Galicia, the Russians are only m tbo very ca-rly stages of a-n invasion of: Germany. In the extreme north they are fighting inside the East Prussian frontier north of' the Masurian Lakes, while opposite these lakes they are posted on or near the German frontier. South towards thd Lower Vistula they have also mado good headway, and occupy a line which is only ten miles distant frotn the Prussian frontier at Rypin (35 miles east and a little north of Thorn), and about 20 miles distant on the Vistula in the neighbourhood of Wloclawek. Here, however, the battle-line turns east along the Vistula to the point where it is entered by the Bzura, 30 miles west of Warsaw, and 80 miles from the German frontier. Roughly Bpeaking, the Germans still occupy an eighty-mile breadth of Poland, from the Lower to the Upper Vistula, on the border of Galicia, and if the Russians have occupied Tarnow (recently evacuated by the Austrians) they are still 80 miles distant at that point from the Silesian frontier. • Splendidly as they, have been fighting since the war began, the soldiers ot the TSAR are still a considerable distance from their goal in German territory at the point—Silesia—where invasion will be most severely felt. All the time, however, they are exhausting the resources of the enemy. * * * . * Turning to the Western theatre, military experts are agreed that the position held by the Gc-rniana in JSoi'fchevn France and along tlw.

Aisne is one of enormous strength. This applies especially to the Tine from Lille to Arras, which protects the main German communications, along tho line of the Meuse and until it is broken, which call probably only be accomplished, by _ costly frontal attacks, the possibilities _of an advance in Flanders' developing into a flanking movement are very limited. Along the Aisne plateau the German position has been converted into a practically continuous fortification, and this also can _be taken by assault only at a terrible sacrifice of life. According to the military correspondent of the Morning Post, there is, however, one weak spot in the German position along the Aisne, and that is in tho vicinity of Reims.

Reims, as he describes the position, stands on a gentle elevation in the centre of a plain which begins at the forest of the Montague de Reims, some ten miles- to- the south, and runs level and unbroken for thirty or forty miles to the north. Some ten miles to the east and as many to the west the highlands begin again. Should the Germans be dislodged from before Eeims they would inevitably be pushed back for a Very long way before they could again take cover in a defensive position, and such a retreat would leave the rear of their present defensive line open, and their lines of com-, munication liable to be cut\ This is a point of very great importance. * * * * i There is very little -~news from Egypt to-day. The reported Turkish retreat is confirmed, but the interesting question now is whether the main army of the invaders is likely to advance, and upon this no light is shed. One report states that the abortive attempt of the Ottoman advance guard was probably only the prelude to a more serious attack, which is likely to be entrusted to the Turkish Fourth Army Corps, and another that it cannot yet be determined whether a second attack is likely to be attempted. British aviators evidently kept close touch with the Turkish advance, and it is probable that if the enemy ha.d carried a new railway' anywhere near the Egyptian frontier something would have been heard about it.