PROGRESS OF THE WAR.

Dominion, Volume 8, Issue 2377, 5 February 1915, Page 4

PROGRESS OF THE WAR.

Predictions of a German invasion of England take a .prominent place in to-day's war news, and there is mention also of a great council of war at Berlin—the Kaiser presiding over an assemblage of high military and naval officers and Ministers —at which "sensational war plans" were considered. While their development is awaited, these plans need cause no one any loss of sleep. It is not a new thing for Germany to threaten an invasion of England, but in a war which has now entered its seventh month' she has taken no purposeful steps in the direction of carrying the threat into effccfc, and there are excellent reasons now which did not exist six months ago why tho invasion should not be attempted. One reason is that Great Britain in these months Las raised and trained a mighty army, a considerable part of . which is permanently set aside for home defence. At the beginning of the> war only a limited number of British soldiers were available as a defending force in the event cf a German invasion. Now almost any conceivable German army that could be landed on British soil, assuming that the landing is possible, would quickly find itself face to face with superior numbers.

Nothing is more foolish than to despise an enemy, but carefully avoiding this mistake, it is still possible to say that the chances of a successful German invasion of England, never bright, are much less tha'n they were at the beginning of' the war. According to the Copenhagen reports which tell of a_ revival of German projects of invasion, the plan now under consideration is to divide the German fleet, and while one section engages the British fleet in southern waters, to send another squadron north at full speed to cover the landing of troops in England. This self-same plan was outlined long ago by General Bernhardi, and it is seamed with weaknesses which eve.a the lay mind can sec at a glance. Such a plan might have some prospect of success if carried out by a strong fleet in face of a weaker one, though,even then it would be attended by desperate risk, but where, as in the present war, this position is exactly reversed, it is foredoomed to failure and _ could only be expected to culminate in disaster. -The outcome of the few naval excursions they have already made into th 3 North Sea is not calculated to encourage tho Germans to seek a repetition of the experience upon a grander scale. They did succeed once in taking a fast cruiser squadron to the English coast and back again without loss, but in their next attempt one big cruiser was sunk and three of the finest ships m the German Navy underwent such a terrific battering that tiny were lucky to get back to port. Th;se ships are likely to be off the active list for some time to come, which, of course, further .rcduces the possibility of an invasion covcrcd by naval force. Known facts in general and the result of the North Sea battle in particular warrant a belief that it the German fleet came cut to ngnt it would be inviting destruction. If it nnnw out, divided into two sections, ine of them roore or less encumbered

by a Scot of slow-moving transports, the work of destruction would be made all the easier. All things considered, it is unlikely that tho Germans will even attempt an invasion. If tho fleet which has sc long sheltered in the naval ports about the mouth of the Elbe ever docs come out it will probably come out as a fighting force pure and simple, and in obedience to political pressure, rather than in any hope of victory. It_ is inferior to )ta adversary in ships, speed, guns, and guntery. To saddle a fleet outmatched in this way with the task of covering the passage of transports, would be not so much a forlorn hope as sheer madness.

One factor, perhaps the greatest of all, making against the possibility of an invasion of England, is that Germany is called upon to meet an increasing military pcessure on all sides—a pressure that is likely to be enormously increased in the not distant future. The- Entente Powers are not allowing very much news about their preparations to-leak out, but it is here rather than in German talk about invasion and sensational plans that indications of the future development of tho war must be sought. Just a little light is thrown to-day upon the preparations that are being made. One correspondent in North France tells of enormous camps that have been formed between the fighting lines and the seagathering centres for large numbers of well-trained reinforcements and immense quantities of guns and warlike stores of all kinds in readiness for the big campaign which _ is to open in the spring. It is not impossible that these reinforcements include a large section of Lord Kitchener's new army for the supposition (countenanced by the German warning reported yesterday) that it is to be transported across the Channel in one great operation is a pure assumption which may be very far removed from the truth. It would.not be at all surprising if it transpired presently that the passage of the new army had been in progress for weeks past. Such a policy would be quite in keeping with the caution and secrecy with which the British military authorities shrouded the conveyance of the first British Expeditionary Force to France.

At all events the Allies in the West are making preparations for a great forward movement which before long should provide ample work for all the forces that Germany can bring to bear in opposing the advance. Russia also, /besides having lately extended the fighting area in the Eastern theat'e by rapid incursions into German territory in the northern part of East Prussia, is preparing for still greater efforts. The great difference between the situation now and that of six months ago is that the Entente Powers have matured, or almost matured, their plans and preparations, and are in a position to work in concert. Germany, all authorities are agreed, entered the war perfectly prepared, while her enemies were ill-prepared. This gave her an enormous initial advantage. Thanks to the perfect efficiency of her militaiy machine, she was able to sweep resistlcssly into France and then to concentrate upon the Russians who had invaded East Prussia more in the hope of relieving pressure in the West than with any definite idea of driving home an invasion of Germany. Now the position is widely different. _ The advantages of preparation lie wtih the Allies, who will enter the phase of the contest about to open with enormously greater forces than those which sufficed to stem the first fury of the German rush in West and East. In the campaign about to open Germany will no longer be able to concentrate alternately in East and West. She will be called upon to fight for her life on two frontiers,, and the Allies will co-operate, not by creating a diversion on one front to relieve pressure upon their forces on the other, but by maintaining a simultaneous pressure on ooth fronts. • * » * News from Flanders to-day tells of frantic efforts by the Germans to recover 'the position they lately' lost on the Great Dune, situated on the coast a little east of Nieuport. While the Kaiser and his advisers _ are credited with maturing sensational war plans, the German soldiers are still condemned to persevere in the attacks in massed formation which have already cost so many lives, and in their latest attempt tney appear to have paid dearly for their conservatism. While many were mowed down, the survivors reached the Allied lines, onlv to be taken prisoner. A terrific bombardment, it is stated, continues, but here and elsewhere in Flanders the Allies are apparently holding their own quite comfortably, and the fact that they have not adopted a more aggressive policy in this region is probably due to the state of affairs further south more than to looal considerations. The fortifications at Arras and La Bassee and the strong entrenched line connecting them, as well as the great line of fortified entrenchments along the Aisne plateau, have to be oarriea before a general advance can begin, and -a local advance in Flanders meantime would .probably serve no very useful purpose. ' *, *>.■*■*. Some fighting is reported today in the Argonne, where German attacks have been repulsed, and in the region immediately to the west. The Allies are maintaining their ground west of Perthes, and north 01 Mesnil-les-Hurlus, where they recently achieved a slight advance. These placcs lie close together, about 28 miles east and a little north of Reims. Attacks by the Germans have also, been repulsed at Massigny, five miles east of Mesnil-les-Hurlus.

The Ottoman invasion of Egypt seems to be in some danger of fading away into the realm of fable before it gives rise to anything in the nature of a great battle. Stories which told of a determined advance by the Turks and the construction of a railway through the desert have ■given place during the last day or two to others which concede to the Turkish army a character little better than that of an ill-organised horde. There- has been a certain amount of fighting, however, though not of a very serious nature. One encounter took place near Ismailia, a town of 4000 inhabitants, which stands on the Suez Canal, 48 miles south of Port Said, and an equal distanco north of Suez. Here tho Turks made a feeble attack on Tnes-' day, which was easily repulsed, the British casualties being -six wounded. On the same night the Turks tried to bridge the Canal at Tusun, seven miles south of Ismailia. They wero allowed to bring their bridging material to the bank of the Canal, and then wore driven off, apparently without any difficulty. On Wednesday morning there was a somewhat

bigger affair, the Turks losing 16 men killed and wounded, and 40 prisoners in an attack on El Kantara, a town on tho Canal 28 miles south of Port Said. Three British soldiers were wounded. * * * * The only considerable Ottoman force as yet reported is an advance guard of 6000 men, which, is stated to have reached Nakhl, 80 miles east of Suez. Meanwhile evidences are multiplying thai tho Turkish force is a nondescript horde unfitted to undertake any purposeful military enterprise, ior instance, ifc_ is reported to-day that the Tuxkish deserters who reached the British lines the other day are cabmen, peasants, and professional beggars. The recruiting officers who assembled the Turkish army of invasion appear to havo cast their nets wide, and, to have dragged in all sorts of human flotsam and jetsam. In the circumstances it is not difficult to believe that the Germans with whom the invasion project originated are only seeking a plausible excuse to abandon it. * * * » Further interesting details are paign in the East, and all go to paign in the east, and all go to show that General von Hindenberq's offensive has been definitely checked, and that the initiative is everywhere with the Russians, except on the strongly entrenched line running south from the Lower Vistula, where they have deliberately, elected to stand fast meantime against the assaults of the German armies, which have been trying for many weeks to break a way to Warsaw. To-day's reports describe the Russians as fknting on favourable terms. in the vicinity of Mlawa,. which lies close to the East Prussian frontier, 65 miles north-north-west of. Warsaw. The Germans appear to have gained absolutely nothing by their recent fiero3 assaults on tno left bank of the Lower Vistula, and further south, west of Warsaw. * » * » The Russian Headquarters Staff is credited with a statement that the Austrians aro fleeing from the Carpathian Passes held by the Russians, whose cavalry has penetrated the Hungarian plains. Other reports indicate, however, that heavy fighting still continues in the mountains in a long line, extending eastward from' the Dukla Pass, though_ the Austrians have lost heavily in men and material. The magnitude of the operations in the Eastern theatre is indicated in the statement that nearly 600,000 Austrians and Germans are prisoners of war in Russia.

Following upon the recent statement that the South African Government expected the early surrender of Kemp and Makitz, two leaders in the late rebellion who took refuge with their commandoes in German SouthWest Africa, it is announced to-day that Kemp's commando has surrendered. The Union forces at last reports were advancing inland from the coast of the German colony at Swakopmund, but the rebel commandos were active not long ago on the northern border of the Union territory, and Kemp's commando may have been taken in that region. .**•** Serious objections- may be raised to the suggestion that merchant ships exposed to attack by German submarine raiders should sail in convoys, as ships used to do in former wars. The principal objection is that a convoy would offer the submarines a better target than a succession of single ships, and it would be impossible to detail a sufficient force of destroyers to protect convoys of merchantmen against submarine attack, as _ squadrons of warships have sometimes been protected. Another point that is being discussed at Home is whether merchant ships should tamely submit to be boarded by the officers of German submarines as several of them were in the Irish Sea the other day. One small quickfiring gun would give a steamer a fighting chanoe against a submarine provided the latter craft was on the surfa-ce, and there are not many submarines in the Germany Navy: capable of overtaking a merchantman of average speed by travelling under water. Adopting a policy of resistance, merchantmen would, of course, be entirely dependent upon a sharp look-out, and their strikingpower for safety so fair as submarines are concerned, but this would make their position no worse than it is at present. The warning given to the crews of the ships sunk in the Irish Sea was a distinct departure from customary German practice, which found normal expression in the stealthy attack upon the Tokomaru and other ships off-Havre, one of them a hospital-ship, conspicuously branded, which by all the laws of war should have been sacred. Had not a German torpedo missed its mark this ship would have shared the fate of the Tokomaru.

Prospects of a rupture between the Germanic nations and Italy and Rumania are brought nearer by the report, coming by way of America, that the Germans have abandoned all hope of keeping Italy and Rumania out of the struggle, and that Germany and Austria arc prohibiting the export to Italy of certain commodities not previously barred. If it is true that Rumania has cut off the supply of petroleum to Germany the latter country is likely to feci the deprivation severely. The occupation of Galicia by the Russians has' cut off most of the principal sources of supply upon which she is accustomed to depend, and the stoppage of supplies from Rumania will on that account be very keenly felt. It is quite certain that Germany would not have jeopardised her diminishing supplies of such an essential commodity by imposing trade disabilities upon Italy and Rumania had she not felt that their participation in, tho war was inevitable.