THE GERMAN VIEW

Dominion, Volume 8, Issue 2352, 7 January 1915, Page 3

THE GERMAN VIEW

WHERE FINANCIAL STRAIN WILL BE FELT ENGLAND'S BURDEN , Discussions of. the economic prosJ)eots in Germany as well as an attempt to outline the theory whereon is based a quite general idea of Germany's financial superiority havo come recently into my hands, writes Mr. Charles Tover, lately correspondent of the "Daily' News" in Berlin. Herr Lohmann, president of the Bremen Chamber of Commerce, examined at the end of September the financial situation with the object of proving that on grounds it would be impossible for the British Empire to conduct a long war. He examines first the purchasing power of neutral' States outside Europe, and shows that the German imports from America, without ' Canada and the United States, amounted in 1913 to 1 £60,000,000, from the United, States £85,000,000,. from Africa, outside British _ colonies, £8,000,000, from Asia outside British possessions, £20,000,000. This import has practically ceased. The imports to Austria as well as to. Belgium and the northern parts of France have equally ceased. Reckoning the debased purchasing 'power of ■ neutral European States as well, Herr Lohmann concludes, that the diminution'in sales by the overseas countries" mentioned to Continental Europe : alone must be at ' least £600,000,000 in one year of. war. l Since the period from September to March is the prinicapal exporting season for these countries (wool, cotton, corn, maize, peas, etc.), there will, between now. and the spring! he asserts, be a steadily increasing pressure at overseas ports of the products for which there can no longer be. a European market. British colonies, he assumes, will suffer, from the cessation of the German imports of jute from India, minerals from Australia, wool, etc. .Germany will have ber share of suffering under this economic catastrophe; of that the writer makes no doubt, but he assumes that "thanks to the precautions of the banks and all leading mercantile houses and of the united will of the whole people . . . Germany will emerge from this war-, strengthened." On the other hand he believes that the war for England will involve "the collapse of English financial supremacy, no matter t whether the war ends for Engand with victory or defeat."

Debts to England,

England, he argues, at the time , of the outbreak of war was financing the whole of her own 'foreign trade arid about two-thirds of tho import and export trade of the Continent of Europe. Taking, however, _ only half the total Continental liabilities .as ■ financed - at three months through London,.English banks and other, financial bouses ; must have held at the outbreak of war bills for one-eighth of the total yearly transactions; that is, about £100,000, 7 . 000. Most of these bills, must lie in London unpaid, whilst, the goods'have already been delivered.

Now, reckoning the various loans and national debts of England and British possessions abroad, added to about onehalf of the State loans of other overseas countries,- and calculating interest at only four per cent., England would expeotto receive annually 'sums of from £70,000,000 to £80,000,000,' Of private, firms and companies in foreign, countries the loans held, in London represent an annual income of about £15,000,000.. _ In all these cases the interest will either' be'not forthcoming,' owing to; the cessation of international trade, or it will only be forthcoming to a small percentage. Of the inability of France to collect interest on her loans in Russia, Turkey, etc., Herr Lohmann considers it unnecessary to speak: in detail, for'it is obvious, and he does not believe that Britain can finance her/Allies.,; Hence ho concludes, as already stated, not only, that England will be .financially ruined fay. the war in any case, but that she will be "in a worse position, than Germany for' carrying on tho war over a long period..,, ■ These suggestions are by no means new, and the above is, of course, only a very short summary, but it is clear that the "strangle-hold" on Germany's overseas trade does not find Germany either unprepared or without comforting arguments on her own side. ~ Circumstances would, it is admitted, be_ different if .Germany, herself were: being invaded. An invasion in force of the industrial west her writers appear to regard as out of the question: An invasion of the borderlands in .the east they have either partly ' already seen or regard as possible, but one gathers'from their arguments, that a' general occupation of, Silesia is considered highly improbable. . ' V : Cermany's Food Problem. I turn now to the economic situation, and to the question which .is set at the .head of most. essays on • the subject, "Can Germany be starved out?" The arguments on which a negative answer is based will be reviewed, in a further article. A few of them have, indeed, already, been proved fallacious by the course of events. In the main, however, it is agreed that Germany needs'for the sustenance of her population an imported quantity of 3,500,000 tons of cereals, rice, beans, peas, lentils, etc. -Large quantities of potted fruits have been stored by the military authorities in. preparation for the outbreak of a war since 1912, and. with a reduction of: the consumption of beer, . tho considerable reduction of the use of potatoes as cattle fodder, and great restrictions on the use of wheat-flour for bread, economies can be effected which it is, or was, believed must oarry Germany safely through the year from harvest 1914 to harvest 1915.

It is interesting, however, to note that Germans exjioct still to bo in possession of; Belgium, and Northern Prance next summer, and if necessary they will have no hesitation in allowing the population of the occupied districts to starve -whilst all produoe is commandeered for Germany.

"It is better," writas Professor WoMtmann, of Halle University, "that we should hang the bread-basket a little further from the grasp of the French and Belgians than that we and our brave troops should be obliged to restrict ourselves in the consumption of bread."