The Dominion. MONDAY, JANUARY 4, 1915. GERMANY'S LOSING BATTLE

Dominion, Volume 8, Issue 2349, 4 January 1915, Page 4

The Dominion. MONDAY, JANUARY 4, 1915. GERMANY'S LOSING BATTLE

Although all authorities of standing are agreed .that the end of the war is not yet by any means in sight and that for; a long time to come Britain and her Allies will be called upon to increase, instead of relax, the pressure. they have already brought to .bear upon Germany and Austria,' prospects for the future do hot lack their brighter side. Austria is obviously failing, and while Germany is still a mighty force to Be reckoned with, it is possible even now to see, and to an extent ,to estimate, her weaknesses as well as her strength. The greatest weakness of all is that .Germany can fight profitably and with hope of success only on alien soil. It is her misfortune -that. her richest industrial and manufacturing districts lie along her frontiers, and will be the first of her territories to feel tne_ crushing weight of counter-in-vasion when it comes. This, it is true, does' not lighten, but rather increases, the present ;burden of. the Allies. The, German war policy of a yigoro.us .offensive w,as not solely based upon those mistaken ideas about the invincibility of the German Anny, which the war has so thoroughly exposed; but to a great extent'upon a knowledge and recognition of : the weakness ■of the German frontiers and the vital importance of keeping them inviolate. Moved by these considerations Germany has staked .everything in this war upon, a policy of- invasion and, aggression -winch must certainly fail unless the Allies relax the magnificent exertions by which they, have up to the present succeeded in stemming the German advance on every side. The armies of invasion have been, stopped, but the task of wearing them down and driving them back into their own country will still tax the resources '.of the Allies for. the simple reason that the retreat of her invading,armies means to Germany not only present dofeat but ultimate ruin. Some countries, France among the number, are able to fall back from one lino of defences to another until the defending armies have gathered head to repel the invaders. Germany has no such recourse. Foiled in invasion she cannot afford to retreat across her own frontier because even victories would then bo purchased at too dear a price and indeed victories cannot long be won by a country when its most important industries are paralysed by- the touch of invasion. For that reason Germany must now . strain every nerve to support and maintain her armies on French, Belgian, and Russian so.il. This,? while it increases the_ burden now bearing upon the Allied Armies, also sets a limit to the task that lies ahead of them.

Germany's vulnerability on her frontiers has recently been emphasised by that able writer on military topics, Mr. Hilaire Belloc, and his picture of the weakness which is screened in'the meantime by the German lines of invasion in both' East and West should serve as an effective antidote to unduly gloomy anticipations as to the probable course of tho war. As Mr. points out, the success of the Allied Armies is connoted in the popular imagination with the idea of a march to Berlin. That such a march will be made is highly probable, but a successful invasion of Germany would have vital results long before Berlin Was reached. Germany has two main industrial regions. One is Westphalia and the manufacturing areas of the Lower Rhine, and the other is Silesia, a province full of mines and factories. These frontier provinces are the seat of the resources and "wealth upon which Germany depends to carry on the war. If they were once invaded, as no doubt they will be, Germany's industries would be paralysed, her sources of supply would be cut off, and she would quickly be face to face with surrender. It is a singular fact that whilo these rich frontier provinces afford, in their natural features, few facilities for a strong defence, comparatively little had been clone, up to the time of the present war, to supplement their, natural deficiencies with lines of fortifteatlohs. Since the war began this neglect has been to some extent repaired, hotably in the construction of a line of strong fortifications along the frontiers of Silesia, but Germany still relies mainly, as she has always done, upon the policy of a vigorous offensive, And when her invading armies have once been driven back her position will be vastly more difiicitlt aud dangerous than it has yet been. Thus while the Allies have a long and toilsome bask ahead of them, especially in the Western theatre of war, the position of Germany is more vulnerable than might at first sight appear. It may take the French, British, and Belgians iv long time to fight theii' way, through Belgium and.strikCiit Wcstnftalia and the areas of the Lower Rhine, but in the East the Russian; aha. fteadily cLppro&chjnq the foHiUd lines on the frontier of Silesia..

It is not to be "expected that these deferences will be overthrown without arduous fighting, but as matters arc now developing in Poland the outlook at the moment is most encouraging. Germany is expected to make a supreme effort in the? coming spring when she will have a large body of new troops available. The Allies then also will bo strongly reinforced with new British and French troops now undergoing training. It will occasion little surprise to find that it is the Allies and not the Germans who take the offensive in the greater activities that are looked forward to when the rigours'of winter begin to pass away.