The Dominion. MONDAY, DECEMBER 14, 1914. THE POLITICAL OUTLOOK

Dominion, Volume 8, Issue 2332, 14 December 1914, Page 4

The Dominion. MONDAY, DECEMBER 14, 1914. THE POLITICAL OUTLOOK

A little further light is thrown oii the possibilities of the political situation by the, recount of tho votes in the Wellington East contest and the addition of the Expeditionary Force and absent electors' votes. The result has been that Dr. Newman is re-elected, and Mr. M'Laeen, who at 'the first count had a small lead, is displaced. Labour 'thus loses a seat which it had hoped to hold, and tho Government's majority is correspondingly increased. At tho moment it! has a-majority of two—4l to 39—but the issuo is still in doubt in one or two other seats in which Labour or Wardist candidates have a lead, and which the Government has prospects of winning. At the worst itnow seems that the Reform Party will have a majority of two in the new Parliament. It cannot be said that ;this would be a satisfactory position at a time like tho present, though the Government could, of course, if necessary carry* on with that majority. Probably, however, it will have a majority of four or even six. The outstanding feature of the situation is the fact that whereas tho Reform Party is a solid and united Party, its opponents are in.two, if not three, camps, and up.to the present' havo been united only in their common desiro to defeat tho. Government. It would be absurd to suggest that men like Sir Joseph Ward, Mr. Myers, Mr. Mac Donald, ' Mr. Dickie, and perhaps one or two others of the Ward Party could havo any real sympathy with the extreme and extravagant ideas of Mr. Payne and his fellow Social Democrats, who preach the Social Revolution; and.are hoping, as tho result, of tho narrow division in parties, to be in a position to make a big stride towards their goal. The electors were very fully warned before polling day of the danger which would confront the country in the event of parties being evenly divided, and the Labour extremists being in a position to hold the balance of power, but to a large extent these warnings passed unheeded: The supporters of ,-Sir Joseph Ward thought that with the aid of the Labour-Socialists in the constituencies contested by Ward candidates they would secure the return of a. sufficient number'of pledged Wardists to make the Party independent of the Labour extremists. Many Moderate people who supported Ward Party candidates would not have done so had they realised there was a real danger that by so doing they would forward the aims and strengthen the hands of the LabourSocialists. Now they, can see the danger they have so narrowly escaped, and if thoy were called on to exercise their votes again to-morrow would no doubt in a great many cases cast them on the side of Reform,, in order to ensure that the control of the country's affairs should not pass into the hands of the extremists.

Even the most ardent followers of Sir Joseph Ward cannot ignore certain very plain facts in connection with the elections. ,The first of these is the substantial increase in tho Reforrn vote. At the previous general elections.estimatcs of the Reform vote varied, but Sir Joseph Ward himself a few days ago stated that it was only three-eighths of tho total votes polled. This would make it in round figures 182,000 votes. At the elections last week the votes for Reform candidates totalled over 236,000, or an increase of over 53,000 votes. On the other hand, the total votes of the Ward and Labour Parties show a falling-ofT of 45,000 votes. This is a very striking evidence of the fact that there has been a marked movement of Moderates from their old allegiance in order to range themselves under the banner of the Reform Party. A further striking proof of this may be gathered from the polling results of the last four general elections, and in considering these it should bo borne in mind that the position of tho Reform Party in respect of the election just concluded is likely to be improved by the count now proceeding: The figures represent tho European members' seats only:— Strength of. Parties. 1905. 1908. 1911. 19U. Liberals 57 48 31 SO Eeforra 15 20 37 30 Independent 4 110 Labour 0 1 i 7 As mentioned above, there is yet a chance of the Government securing ono or more scats, which would make the figures for 1914 still more striking' in tho they afford of the grrhyth of the Reform movement and the corresponding loss in popularity of "Liberalism" since the death of Mr. Seddon. The growth of the Labour vote is also noticeable. Here, as elsewhere, organised labour is ' demanding direct representation, and this demand must encroach more and .mora on tho vsnke of what was , once tho liberal Party.,, 'Afc the re..

cent elections an agreement was arrived at by which the Labour-Social-ists were given a free run in certain constituencies in return for the support they gave the "Liberals" for other seats. The Labour-Socialists

have met with some successes, and the "Liberals" can rest assured that when the next elections come round

the Labour organisations will assert their right to a free run for still more seats. In this way the Moderates in the -"Liberal" Party will be gradually squeezed out, and forced for their own protection into the ranks of the Reform Party. It

would be idle to ignore the trend of events. The forces which have been at work to separate the Moderates and the extremists are still operating and will continue to do so. The rallying point for the Moderates is the present Reform Party, while the extremists. are gradually ' gathering round the banner of the LabourSocialists, or, as they call themselves, the Social Democrats. The situation which has developed out of the recent elections will assist to bring these facts home to the public as no-, thing else could do. The parties of the future^are the Moderate Progressives and the Extremist Revolutionaries, and though Sir Joseph Ward and Mr. Myers and others of the

"Liberal" Party may refuse for the moment to admit this, and though a large proportion of the public have not yet fully realised the facts, it is becoming more widely _ recognised, and ere long will be universally conceded. Possibly the most far-reach-ing effect of the recent elections may bo the bringing together of the Moderates—both in and out of Parliament—of the Reform and "Liberal" Parties.