TO-MORROW'S POLL

Dominion, Volume 8, Issue 2328, 9 December 1914, Page 8

TO-MORROW'S POLL

HOW WILL THE VOTING,GO?

CANDIDATES' PROSPECTS REVIEWED POSITION IN CANTERBURY (By (Megraph.—SpeoinJ 'Oorreajondcnt.) - Christchurch, December 7. Canterbury has no good repute amongst sensible people outside Canterbury so far as politics are concerned. It has been the happy huntingground of cranks of all sorts; it is the province in which the religious frauds take root, in which the anti-militarists have their headquarters, in which the Prohibition movement began, in which Worthington built a temple, and Isitt won a seat, and'in which Wardism has flourished so far as politics aro concerned. This atmosphere has been due in no small measure to the unwillingness of the Reformers to get down to business. But you map expect a change this year. Canterbury has waked up a great deal and the people have had shown to them the pretty ways of the liberals, have been kept more in touch with the main current, and have had tlio case for reform put very clearly and persistently to them since 1911. The seat we are all most, interested in is Christchurch North,' and the betting is evon with a shade of odds on Mr. Toogood. Mr. Isitt- has suffered greatly, through theoxposuro by the "Press" oF his hostility to the defence system. Ho has suffered also through his attempt to retain the Catholic vote by opposing the Bible Referendum, while attempting to hold the supporters of Bible teaching by professing approval of' somo : sort of referendum, but hia worst break was over licensing. He went in to Kaiapoi to fight Mr. David Jones, a baro majority man, and all his shuffling has failed to repair the damage caused by his action, for people will not accept his excuses in view of his plain statement last year, that ho would support My political opponent who would givo the bare majority. Mr. Toogoqdlias done splendidly ou the platform, and wil> get' the votes Mr. J. D. /Hall would never get. I anticipate a win. for Mr. Toogood by S!DU.

In Avon Mt. Russell is assured of defeat. His Runanga Estate, his stupefying wobbling on the liquor issue, and his conviction by Mr. Sullivan of hostility to the Defence- Act, which he blamed Mr. Sullivan for attacking, has quite settled his chances. Mr. Acland will win if he receives a fair share of the No-License vote, but Mr. Sullivan has succeeded by a political trick in persuading many Prohibitionists that he {Mr. Sullivan) is the Prohibition candidate. The ,odds are even as between Mr. Sullivan and Mr.: Acland, but I think Mr. Acland will win.

In Riccarton Mr. Witty, will be opposed by the Prohibitionists and Bibleadvocates, but he has'had sense enough to keep out of tho limelight, and Mr Burnt will not do more Vhan reduce the Wardist majority. Mr. Jones should win Kaiapoi. Mr. Isitt's visit on Mr. Buddo'fi bebalf has split Methodism and Prohibition in two, and prominent members of the NoLicense Council have quoted fiercely anti-Buddo statements by Mr. Isitt. Mr. Moore nearly beat Mr. Buddo in 1911, and Mr. Jones will finish tho job. Mr. Rhodes and Mr. Forbes are safo to return. -■%-.-■

11l Christchurch South Mr. Hughes has made a good fight, but it is a very anti-Reform district, and, it is quite impossible to say who will win. Mr. Ell has lost much support by his-wobbling on the, Bible-in-schools question. In- Lyttelton, Mr. M'Combs has relied on the 'soft'pedal, but if\there was'any reality in the significance of Mr. Millerls drastic reduction of the Wardist.vote at the '. by-election, Mr. Miller should win: :■..-■-;-.- .'.•'■'■.

• 'In j Christchurch East, 'the Reform candidate,,is very,weak, and started lato.. Dr.'.Thacker,a medical gentleman, whose politics are better suited' to a pantomime than to anything else, is •selected as the Wardist nominee,, although he has nothing to commend him to anybody. Mr. Hiram Hunter, however, expects to beat Dr. Thacker, and I think he will. ' ".

In Temtika, Mr. Kerr; is pretty safe, and Mr. Norton Francis, the popular Waimate man,'; who is contesting Wai,taki for Reform, is a certainty. . . , : In Selwyn, Mr. Dickie has the advantage of a split Reform vote, his opponents being Mr. Sheat, a Canterbury farmer',' and Mr. Hamlet, a man with an ' . American accent. ' Unhappily, Messrs. -. -Sheat , and.'. Hamlet will divide, the Reform vote ito an extent that will 16t-,Dickie.in.■: ..■'. ;. -'. In Ashburton, despite predictions to the contrary, Mr. Ndsworthy-will tain his majority.; : ■ '.-' " My forecast is as. follows:•—. , '■. Certain seats for Reform: Ellesmere,. Kaiapoi, Christchurch North, Temuka, and Ashb'urtbn. ' '.■••'■ <"■■'■ . CertairJ seats-for the Wardist-Labour Socialist'/ Pa'rty: Christchurch, ■, East, Ric'cartori, Hurunui, Timaru, and Selwyn; ■: ■'■~" '.'. ';.:-.', ' '• ■ 'The doubtful seats are Christchurch South, 1 Lyttelton, .and Avon. I fancy that. Mr;, EIT will just retain Christchurch South,'and-that Mr. Miller will win Lyttelton.- ■ It is a toss up between Messrs. 'Sullivan arid Acland for Avon., In any event, the Wardists. who won ten seatsin 1911, cannot win more than six this year. Reform, which ' only won two .in' 1911| iwill win, if the, indications mean anything at.all, no; fewet than six.