PROGRESS OF THE WAR

Dominion, Volume 8, Issue 2319, 28 November 1914, Page 6

PROGRESS OF THE WAR

Although there are conflicting reports on tho subject from German and Russian sources, the latest messages to hand appear to make it clear that the reported Russian victory in Poland has been a most decisive one. At one stage it would seem that the Germans had the advantage, but owing to their misjudging the strength of the Russian forces near Lodz, the Tsar's troops were able to deliver a counter stroke which pierced the German Centre. This permitted an enveloping movement, which isolated a large part of the German Army and led to its utter rout. If the Russians' can press homo this victory it may mean a tremendous advantage, opening the way to the second line of German defences. It is plain, however, that our allies must have suffered severely in the earlier stages of the struggle, and this may have hampered their subsequent efforts when the tide of battle turned in their favour. Though there has been nothing sensational to record in. France and Belgium, the fighting has been fairly severe in places, and big events are said to be pending. This probably means that the Germans having been once more reinforced are to make yet another attempt to get possession of the sea coast of Northern France. The Allies, according to the Times correspondent, are quite confident of the outcome.

The tragic end of the old battleship Bulwark and the loss of almost the whole of her crew,_ while lying at anchor off Sheerness, is a distressing piece of news to-day. One's thoughts .immediately turn to submarines on learning that a mysterious explosion was the cause of the disaster, but it seems that on this'occasion the loss could not be traced to this source. An internal explosion is stated to have been responsible,_ but how it could have originated is shrouded in mystery. Treachery on board seems a far-fetched idea, yet there has been abundant evidence of the treacherous cunning of our enemies. Possibly wo may never learn the cause of the explosion, but we can be pretty certain that so soon as it is known in Germany it will be proclaimed as another triumph Tor German arms.

The enrolment of 30,000 recruits weekly in tho United Kingdom, in addition to regiments i which are being formed is a good rc-i

cord, but even if the rate of enlistment was muoli greater the recruiting capacity of the country is not likely to be exhausted for a very considerable time. Tens of thousands of able-bodied young men must bo still holding back tor various reasons. It should be remembered that almost tho whole of the manhood of Austria and Germany is at war, and Britain must put a great army in the field—the greatest army indeed that she has ever raised —in order to ensure the certainty of victory over such powerful enemies. Lojp Kitonenee, in his latest spcech in the House of Lords (an extract from which appears in our cable columns), has no complaint to make about the response to his call for men, but ho states that the time is coming when more recruits will be required. There are at present about 1,500,000 men at the front and in training, and Lord Kitchener has authority to enrol another million. It has been stated that a special effort will be made to vastly increase the British forces in tho field during tho coming Spring. _ The pitting of a constant-ly-growing stream of fresh troops against the war-worn German soldiers must eventually turn the tide against the enemy in a decisive manner.

The fierce engagements recorded from day to day in our cable columns, in which the British troops have been playing a prominent part, must involve heavy loss to our own troops as well as to the enemy. Sickness also accounts for a good deal of wastago; but we know that the Gormans have suffered far more than our men both as regards actual fighting casualties and ill-health. In his latest speech in Parliament Loed Kitchener stated thq.fc our losses had naturally been heavy, but they were slight when compared with those of the enemy. In a cable message which appeared in yesterday's issue it was stated that a report from Copenhagen estimates the German losses to'date, on the basis of the official lists, at 1,500,000. This estimate is probably well within the mark, but it is equivalent to an army nearly double that which Germany placed in the field in the war against Franco in 1870. A considerable percentage of the wounded have probably recovered sufficiently to take their places once more in the fighting ranks, but after making every allowance for these recoveries, such a tremendous rate of wastage cannot be borne for any great length of time even by the most powerful military nation in the world! Nearly the whole male population of Germany, apart from the old men and little children, is now, under arms, and there is no source from which fresh troops can be drawn to replace tho enormous losses both in the Eastern and Western theatres of the war,_ whereas Britain is constantly, making good her losses, and steadily increasing the strength- of her army in the field.

The state of affairs in "AustriaHungary appears to be growing more and more desperate. Latest news shows that the Austrian army is becoming quite demoralised by the staggering blows which it has received from the Russians, and things are going from bad to worse owing to the failure of the food supply and general confusion. The troops aro getting out of hand, and are said to De pillaging the country and shooting people on the slightest pretext. The effect of this will be to throw the whole nation into a state of panic. The Austrian forces are utterly; unable to resist the tremendous Eussia-n onslaught, and they cannot expect much help from the Germans, who ore also fighting desperately to check tho advance of the Tsar's troops. The general failure of their, plans and the gloomy outlook have caused the German and Austrian leaders to fall out among themselves. The Kaiser's Generals have a very poor opinion of the capacity of their Austrian colleagues, and they do not hesitate to show it, and the Austrians are resentful at the domineering behaviour of the Germans. Peelings of bitterness and distrust havo thus been aroused, and it has even been hinted that Austria may be driven to desert her ally and sue ior peace on her own account.

The German Government is evidently much distressed by the efficient manner in which the British Navy is doing its work in preventing contraband from reaching the enemy. Count Bernstorff, the German Ambassador at Washington, has protested to the United States against the violation of the Declaration of London by the Allies. The protest has, howsver, been summarily dismissed, and the Count has been officially informed—of course he knew it all the time—that as the Declaration was not adopted by all the Powers, and not agreed to by the. belligerents as_a basis of action, the United States is entitled to disregard it, and rely upon previously existing international law. This is an entirely reasonable and proper attitude to adopt.

Fortunately for Britain the House of Lords declined to ratify the Declaration of London. A naval, expert has expressed the opinion that its ratification "would have been worth an army corps or a squadron of battleships to Germany" in the present war. There has been a considerable amount of discussion in America in regard to tho Declaration, with special reference to the doctrine of continuous voyage, which means that a neutral ship carrying contraband of war which, although destined for tho enemy, is to be landed at a neutral port, is liable to capture. If the ship is calling at various ports, some hostile and some neutral, she is also liable to capture unless her papers clearly prove that the contraband cargo is not destined for the enemy. The London Morning Post points out that if Britain had ratified the Declaration of London, the doctrine of continuous voyage would not now have applied to conditional contraband—articles capable of being used either for peace or for war which belligerents can declare to be contraband at will. The result would have been that the articles declared to be contraDand by'the British Government, including foodstuffs, .might now be brought by any neutral vessel to a neutral port and sent through to Germany in any quantity. These facts go a long way to explain "why it was that certain foreign Powers were so extremely anxious that Great Britain should ratify the Declaration of London._ The rcferenco here is not to the United States, but principally to Germany."

* * * * The purpose of Count Bernstokff in making the protest was no doubt to cause friction between Britain and the United States, but the leading American newspapers recognise the reasonableness of Britain's position. JCJie A'cyi £ori Sm Roijits out

that tho principle for which Britain contends is tho same as that which has been persistently and traditionally maintained liy the United States Govornmeut. The New York Tribune finds a touch of humour in the fact that the doctrine was chiefly developed by America during the Civil War, and now some people are seeking to limit its operation by a volte face. "That is the old, old story in the history of contraband." The same journal sensibly remarks s that "it behoves citizens of both countries to keep their heads and not become unduly excited over a mattor_ that has spilled more diplomatic ink than any other which can como before the Foreign Office."

The weather is beginning to play an increasingly conspicuous part in the war. A cablegram published in yesterday's Dominion stated that the cold is affecting both sides more than the operations, and messages appearing in this issue stato that heavy snow has fallen in the Argonne, Woeuvre, Lorraine, and Vosges districts, while floods are interfering with the progress of hostilities in Western Belgium. Now that winter is approaching, greav ihanges must be expected in the methods of attack and. defence. An American military expert recently complained that the Press reports of the war gave little information of weather conditions "which have everything to do with, military operations." Napo- 1 leon's great army was no match for the Russian snows, and the men now fighting in France and Belgium, and in Austria, Poland, and East Prussia, are just as susceptible to cold as the French troops during the retreat from Moscow.

Plans of campaign that do not make due allowance for the weather are very apt to come to grief. "The physiological and psychological effects of weather upon fighting men," says the Scientific American, "are still much the same as they were a thousand years ago.

Turn the pages of history and you will find that weather has always been a factor of prime importance in the conduct of war, playing a role analogous to, and co-ordinate with, that of topography, though, strange to say, military writers usually exaggerate the relative importance of the latter. It would be easy to compile a long list of battles in which the weather has actually been the decisive factor. Take the effects of rain alone: Heavy downpours and resulting floods led to the total destruction of the three Roman legions under Varus, in a.d. 9. Fifteen hundred years later persistent rains saved Vienna from capture and destruction by the Turks. In 1692 an English army was prevented by heavy rains from crossing the Mehaigne to relieve Namur, then besieged by the French, and Mm city fell. It woidd, however, be tedious to enumerate all the instances under this head."

The present struggle will probably beoome less strenuous as the cold becomes more intense, but there is not to be any actual cessation of hostilities. • Each side may have some winter surprises in store for the other, and tne fullest use will certainly be made of any opportunities the weather may afford of striking an effective blow.