NOTES ON THE WAR

Dominion, Volume 8, Issue 2298, 4 November 1914, Page 4

NOTES ON THE WAR

Particular interest will attach to the message from London to-day intimating that" the Grand Vizier of Turkey nas apologised to the Powers for recent events in the Black Sea. At the moment-there is no official confirmation of this news, which comes_ from Reuter's' correspondent, and it is not quite clear what it really means. On the face of it the only reasonable interpretation is that the actions of the fleet, which is practically in the hands of the Germans, are repudiated by Turkishofficialdom. The ways of the Turk are such, however,' that it is quite impossible to place any reliance whatever on his words: it is only safe to judge him by his deeds. We have had it suggested that the German naval officers, who appear to dominate in both military' and' naval circles in.Turkey,' acted without the sanction of the Turkish authorities in attacking Russian to'wns and vessels on the Black Sea, the object being to embroil with the Entente and force her into the field on the side of Germany. Diplomatic circles in. France and, England appeared anxious to give credence to this view, and no doubt they had good reason for so doing. The probability is ( that the old and more experienced Turkish leaders realise the danger which confronts Turkey in the event of her being drawn into the war, and so have been using every endeavour to keep her out of the conflict. The Young Turkish Party, however, has succumbed to German influence, and the crisis has now been precipitated.

Even accepting the view that the Germans in cbntrol _of the Turkish Fleet have acted without the sanction _of the Turkish authorities,. it is .difficult to see how the matter is to be patched up. The only course which would prove satisfactory to Eussia and her Allies would be the dismissal of the whole of the Germans on the Turkish vessels and the payment of adequate compensation lor the damage done. How is this to be accomplished-'in face of the obviously divided state of, feeling in Turkey? The " Gkan» ' Vizier's apologies are poor comfort indeed, and especially.'is this the ' case, when it is taken into consideration that the action of the Turkish Navy has been accompanied with military movements which plainly indicate hostility to the Entente. Further, light may be thrown on the" situation by our late cable news, but at the moment there is no good reason to doubt that Turkey,has entered the war on the side of ( Germany.' Turkish opinion may be divided as to the wisdom of this course—it no doubt is so divided—but _ the vital step has been taken, and it is hard to see how it can possibly \be retraced. ••.' :" ' "

It was only to be expected' that Austria and Germany would endeavour, to follow up their success in; embroiling Turkey by dragging, in.other of the Balkan States. Bulgaria is bitterly resentful of being forced to yield to Servia a portion of her x share of the spoils of the campaign • against Turkey. , Bulgaria would like to "get.even" with Servia. could she but see the, way and the Austro-German combination is showing the way. The resources of Servia have been strained to the uttermost by. her struggle against Auswhich comes on top.of the two recent Balkan campaigns .and Bult aria might strike with some condonee of success. Only last week' we were,told that Servia was finding the strain-too great and.-bad'de-cided to act on the defensive against Austria. It is quite probable that it was not the strain; of the struggle against Austria so much as the risk of attack.in the rear from Bulgaria' that caused the change of policy. But while the Austro-German wirepullers may be able to show Bulgaria that Servia alone might not be able to resist the pressure frora ( both Austria and Bulgaria, it wouldbe absurd to believe that Bulgaria is blind to the other possibilities of the situation. She must know the anxiety ol Turkey to .secure repossession of her lost territory; she knows that Eussia, to whom she owes her national freedom, is "a. mighty force to be reckoned with on settling day_. Rumania too is a formidable . neighbour. likely to side with Eussia. So .indeed we find the Bulgarians at present declaring, for neutrality despite Austro-German exorts to force them into line with Turkey.'

> A Copenhagen message states that the Kaisee _ presided over a War Council which has determined that! no sacrifice is too great, to secure possession of the North Coast of France. It ~has been made abundantly clear, by.the recent operations of Gorman submarines' as far down as the Straits of Dover /that'if Germany did secure possession of the 1 coast-line of Belgium and Northern France, then the position of the Allies and especially Britain would,be greatly prejudiced. At the present time the submarine of the Germans have led to uneasiness as to the free passage of British vessels about the Southern Coasts of England, and to-day we are told that; the North Sea is to be closed to shipping owing to the indiscriminate mine-laying of the enemy. The probability is that this action of the Admiraltv has been decided on because of 'the difficulties experienced in detecting from amongst the multitude of vessels in : those waters those that are assisting the enemy's submarines or spying out the situation. The. fewer vessels thoro arti

"■J the better for the operations of our* Fleet. It will be readily understood that if under s existing conditions the Gorman submarines and mine-layers can carry out their pestiferous work, they could do bo with infinitely greater deadliness from bases situated along the Northern Ooast of- France and Belgium. Hence tho Kaiser's determination to gain possession of the coast-line ai anysacrifice.

Already tremendous sacrifices have" been made in the.endeavour to carry out, this plan, but so far without) any appcaranco of success. To-day's messages show that the fighting in Belgium and North-Eastern Franca has raged with dreadful-fury,' and the Allies throughout have more than held their own. At that vital point between Nieuport and Dixmu'de in Belgium, where the Gerj mans a few days ago appeared to' make Blight progress, the flooding of the country has been accompanied with terrible results' for the invaders. Thousands of Germanß are reported to have surrendered -,and still more continue to lay down their arms. South.of Ypres, atHessines, the Germans appear to continue to hold' the slight advantage reported yesterday, but elsewhere in Belgium the Allies have either gained ground or, repulsed the enemy's attacks.

In France violent efforts have' been made to break the (Allies' lines in the Arras region to the southwest of Lille, but all have ended in failure. In the Centre and along the south-eastern frontier the French troops have made progress, occupying points of vantage which,should assist to further progress.

To all appearances the Russian*, advance continues. There has been desperate fighting on : the East Prussian frontier where the Germans lost heavily. German reports; admit that _the Kaiser's forces are retreating in Poland' before the'weight of the Eussian masses. In face of 'theposition in this quarter the story, about*, transferring three German army corps from the East, to Belgium may. be safely discounted.. It may be expected that every; endeavour will be made consistent with prudence to hurry forward the Bus-* sian'advance" on Germany and tria as a counter-stroke to the effort! which the Kaiser is making to secure possession of-the coast-line of Norths em France. With bad roads and the winter coming on fai.t the armies of the belligerents will be'much concornedwith the question of maintaining supplies. This may lead tof supreme efforts being made within the next week :or two to 'secure good winter quarters from which to act on the 'offensive or defensive, af occasion may demand.