NOTES ON THE WAR

Dominion, Volume 8, Issue 2288, 23 October 1914, Page 4

NOTES ON THE WAR

Intekhsting food for speculation is provided by some of our messages this morning, and more especially those which plainly hint at movements: indicating German plans for an invasion of England. The first of these is the Daily Mail correspondent's message which states that the' Kaiser's Channel Expeditionary Force has received the last man and the last rille it can hope for, and must go forward now.to certain destruction. Now this is the first the fcVmanr hiis permitted "8 to l">ivo of ■any. dfcnc.oj Force.. It

is true that from time to time we have had scraps of news given us indicating that large bodies of German troops were moving in the direction of the coast fronting the English Channel, but it lias never been, seriously suggested that "the Kaiser was in a position to detach, a sufficient body of men to make a 1 raid on England a possibility. Yet in the message of the Daily Mail correspondent might he found,'by one looking for)it, something very like a sigh of relief at a.danger removed. "Not since Lille and- Arras fight," the message runs, "have we gone to bed with greater hope and confidence for the morrow."

The sensationalist, however, might go even further than this. He might suggest, and not unreasonably, that the sudden transfer of British troops a fortnight ago, from the region around the Oise to an undisclosed destination, was carried out to enable them to play a leading part in operating Against the forces being collected in North-West Belgium. Assuredly no body of troops would be likely to fight. more determinedly against an army got together for the invasion of England ■ than the British force with the Allids. Then again,' we have the repeated appearance of British warsh'ps off the coast of Belgium. Hers again it/might be suggested that they were on the watch for the Kaiser's Expeditionary Force. Finally we are told from Amsterdam that the German Fleet in the. Kiel Canal is stated to have been extensively provisioned at the end of last week. Now, wo know quite well that there could be no hope of an invasion of England with the British Fleet roaming the North Sea and the English Channel. But supposing the German Fleet sallied out and challenged the British Fleet to battle in the-North Sea. How then? Might not tho Kaiser then succeed in rushing across his army while the fleets of the two nations were engaged in a death struggle two hundred milcn away? To these questions the answers.', are not difficult to find.

Even if we assume for the sake of argument that the Kaiseb could spare the men, he could not possibly get the transports to Belgium to carry them across the Channel. Moreover, even assuming that he could get the transports, it is absurd to think that he could hope to elude the reserve vessels of the British Fleet, which would make short work of any vessels Germany could afford to detach from its battle fleet. Still further, even supposing that Germany could afford to spare the men, and could provide the ships, and succeeded in eluding the British warships. What then ? What could the Kaiser hope to accomplish by sending 100,000 of his troops to England ?. He could not hope to send more in' a dash'of this description, and what could they accomplish.?' They, in all probability, if they did succeed in accomplishing 'the impossible and landing in England, would never leave it again. There'are sufficient trained troops in England tb v account for them twice over, apart from the difficulties they must experience in the matter of supplies. As a matter of fact the possibility of a serious raid on England by. sea at the present juncture is too remote to be seriously considered. A fleet of German transports is available and could be dispatched from the Kiel Canal and Wilhelmshaven, but it could never hope to reach Britain until' the British Navy is disposed of, and that is a contract which Germany has not yet dared to undertake.

At. the same time the extensive provisioning of the German Fleet at lviel is not without significance. The fact cannot be ignored that so far our cruisers have not been successful in capturing any of the German cruisers scattered about the oceans of the world and seeking to prey on British commerce. It is true that the activities of theso enemies' cruisers have been restricted by the manner in which our own vessels have chased around-in search of them, but we are unpleasantly reminded this morning by a record of further exploits by the. Emden that this menace is not to bo lightly passed-over. Why then should not. the German Naval authorities conceive the idea of extending their , raiding operations against our merchantshipping by throwing more fast cruisers into the wider waters of di3t'iut seas instead of keeping them cooped up in the Kiel Canal and adjacent waters 1 Under cover of a demonstration in force a number of. theso cruisers might hope to run the gauntlet of the British Fleet, and once clear would take more than double their number of British cruisers to track down. There would bono necessity for "extensively provisioning" German warships about to offer battle to the British Fleet in the North Sea; but vessels bound on a long voyage would require to have their larders' and bunkers filled to _ the utmost of their holding capacity. Indeed it is surprising that Germany lias not already attempted to put the idea here suggested into effect, even if it involved the risk of the exchange of a few shots at long range with the British battle fleet.

Tukning now to the land operations the Allies' forces in Belgium continue to make good progress, despite the reinforcements that are being dispatched to assist tho German Army there. The latest news on this point is to the effect that the garrison of Antwerp has been weakened in order to send assistance to the fighting line further to the west, and that Austrian troops . which _ have been kept on the Italian frontier for emergencies have been now sent to strengthen the German Right Wing in Belgium and France. These things in themselves are a good'.sign; but in addition we have the definite information' of the advances made. It will be noted that in the fighting along the sea coast between Ostond and Nieuport, British warships shelled the German lines with deadly effect and -assisted materially in forcing a rctiremont. There is more in this than meets the eye. A line of railway runs along the coast between Ostend and Nieuport and must be of immense assistance to the German force operating at this point in enabling the rapid transport of troops and supplies. If the British vessels lying off the coast can command this line then the German _ Commander will certainly bo considerably em-, barrasscd.

While the progress of the Allies generally has been satisfactory, the outstanding movement recorded today is the occupation of Oourtrai, A glance at any map will show that this advance narrows decisively the line of retreat of the German forces operating to the north-west of Lille, and indicates a further turn of thoRr.r<3w tightening tho vice which is fiipjpg iaj>p /,has part of the Goi>

man Army still left in France. Incidentally the movement has also the effect of driving a wedge between the Kaiser's troops in Northern Belgium and those in Eastern France. The messages tell* us of the desperate efforts made by the German forces in West Belgium and in the region to the west of Lille to relieve this pressure, but without effect. At Nieuport, on the coast of Belgium, at Dixmude, a dozen miles further south; at llonlers, some 15 miles more to the south-east, we have had particularly violent encounters; and so, also, at La Bassec, some 25 miles to tiie south-west, and across the frontier in France. All these efforts of the enemy have been vigorously repulsed.

Small wonder is it that we hear that. the enemy is depressed, and that the German soldiers are fighting less effectively than they did at the outset of the war. "What can they see either in the present or the future to encourage them 1 _ Across Belgium, at their backs, their comrades who were to have assisted them in over-running France and in trampling through the green fields of England are engaged in a very different task. They are busily at work making preparations to cover the retreat of the German forces not only from Franco, but from Belgium as well. Bridges arc being built over the Meuse between Liege and the Dutch frontier, and defensive works are being carried out. This docs not, look like a triumphal forward movement, buti rather does it point to a recognition of the urgent necessity of providing for a safe means of rapid retreat. It would bo surprising indeed if, in view _of the whole circumstances of the situation, the German soldiers wero not depressed.

Our messages from Russia to-day aro rather more illuminating than usual, and must be regarded . x as. showing a satisfactory state of affairs. It is plain, however, that the main battle is still raging. To understand the position, it must_ be borne in mind that the opposing lines extend over something like 250 miles, from a point north, of Warsaw along the banks of the Vistula in a south-easterly direction across the frontier into Galicia, practically to the foot of the Carpathians. The fighting has been general along this' long hae, and especially at tho extreme ends around Warsaw and south of Przemysl. In the north—from Warsaw to the Pilica River, some 20 or 30 miles to the south—the Germans have been badly punished, and are reported to have retreated hastily. Elsewhere the battle still rages, and the Russians appear to be holding their own. With such huge forces engaged, it is impossible to tell for days what the ultimate outcome will be, but the reports so far show that our Allies are doing well.

Ever since the commencement of the war Germany has shown much anxiety to secure the sympathy and friendship of. the United States. Special efforts have been made to put the German case in a favourable light before the American Government and people, but ths measure of success achieved has been insignificant. The Kaiser is now endeavouring to get the United States to recognise him as" ruler of Belgium. A cablegram which appeared in yesterday's _issue_ states that the American Minister in Belgium has been-informed by Germany that his mission has ended, and he has been asked to use his influence to induce his Government to recognise the Kaiser's sovereignty. When tho United States sent its Minister to Belgium it thereby recognised that country as ono of the family of nations, and the withdrawal of its representative at the request of Germany would be a most unfriendly acttowards the King of the Belgians and his people. It would also certainly be regarded with marked disfavour by the Allies. _ The Germans cannot be said to be in firm and effective occupation of tho, country, for the Belgian Army is still unconquered and the hold of the invader is extremely, uncertain. Recognition is an admission of sovereignty, and 'before tic Kaiser's rule can be considered effective "the rights of the original Sovereign must first D<s ousted by a completed conquest or resigned by a definite treaty." This is the view of Vattei,, writing in 1758, and a modern authority tells us that customs inconsistent' with it have now died" out. 'It has also been laid down that the continuity of'a State is not affected by loss of outlying territory. Tho Germans only control part of Belgium and . the whole position is so dubious that it may bo entirely changed in a week or even a day. In view of these facts it is not at all likely that the United States Government will seriously consider the Kaiser's impudent request for rccognitiqn.