The Dominion. SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 19, 1914. MANY MISCALCULATIONS

Dominion, Volume 7, Issue 2259, 19 September 1914, Page 6

The Dominion. SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 19, 1914. MANY MISCALCULATIONS

It is possible to calculate with exactness the beginning and the end of an eclipse; the time for full moons and high tides can be reckoned to a minute; we know what will happen whenever fire and. gunpowder meet; but the moment human wills, and hopes, and fears have to bo taken into consideration an element of uncertainty makes its appearance. It is impossible to be giiite certain what'a man will do in any given circumstances until he actually does it. ' The human factor is always liable to upset the most careful calqulittions. This is what tho Kaiser a"nd his advisers have learned by bitte-r experience since the outbreak of the war. Their miscalculation as to what the Governments and people of Britain, and Belgium, and Italy and .other countries were likely to do has been one of the most important factors in the present great world struggle. An excellent illustration of the manner in which they havemisjudged the situation is provided by the statement of the Berliner lagehlatt, which appeared in our cable columns yesterday. This wellknown Berlin journal bewails the ingratitude of the Boers. The Germans evidently thought that the Dutch Sopulation of the South African nion would cause trouble to Britain in return for tho . sympathy which Germany showed for them during the Boer war, and General Botha s declaration that the Boers are standing solid with England against Germany has boon received with pained surprise by the greatly misinformed subjects of the Kaiser. What will they think and say when they hear that the South African Government intends to send troops to occupy certain parts of German Bouth-West Africa for strategical

reasons? Such an occurrence would be to them "the most unkindest cut of all." Another German miscalculation was the belief that the British Overseas Dominions would either stand aloof and leave tho Motherland to fight her own battles, or take advantage of the crisis to "cut tho painter." The Kaiseb's news fabricators seem to have endeavoured to persuade the people of Germany that the British Empire was in serious danger of breaking up fronrinternal dissension, but they aro now possibly beginning to learn something about the magnificent .manner in which India and the King's selfgoverning Dominions have placed their resources at the disposal of the Imperial authorities and their determination to do all in their power to resist Germany's attempt to dominate the world. The Kaiser made still another mistake when he reckoned on the help of Italy. Her neutrality was a sore disappointment to him. Should Italy eventually give active support to the Triple Entente, then his cup of disappointment will be full to overflowing. The most disastrous of all the Kaiser's miscalculations was his assumption that Britain could be persuaded to adopt a neutral attitude. Germany did her utmost to bribe Britain to betray her friends, and could hardly believe that the British Government would go to war merely for a "scrap of paper." But again she was mistaken. Of course she know that our Navy was the strongest in the world, but she did not reckon that our Army was going to be a" very important factor in tho struggle. The Kaiser is stated to have been urging his troops to walk over Sir John French's contemptible army." The German hosts have done their utmost to obey the War Lord's orders in this matter, but they have found it an exceedingly difficult and costly task, and the happenings of the iast few days have probably shown tho Kaiser that sufficient allowance was not made in his calculations for the part to be played by the British forces in the war. _ His reckoning in this respect was just as far, out. as his belief that he had chosen an opportune time for the commencement of hostilities because of the labour troubles in Russia, the political crisis in France and the Homo Rule controversy in tho United Kingdom. With the declaration of war all these difficulties vanished in a moment, and the internal troubles, of her enemies have afforded no assistance to Germany. The delay caused by the determined resistance of Belgium was another disappointment. It completely upset the German time-table, and threw the military machine out of gear. The stubborn refusal of events to fit in with the Kaiser's calculations and programme has been an outstanding feature of tho war, and the climax was reached when the German armies were hurled back to the French frontiers as soon as they had got within striking distance of Paris