NOTES ON THE WAR

Dominion, Volume 7, Issue 2232, 19 August 1914, Page 4

NOTES ON THE WAR

Familiar names associated with the downfall of Napoleon in the Waterloo campaign indicate the probability of the first big battle in-Belgium taking place in'the vicinity of the historic battlefields of 1815. Nαpoleqn advanced northward by way of Oharleroi, his .-right wing extending across to Gembloux where Bluchee w.ae-stationed, while his left pressed. the • Duke of .Wellington back at Quatre Bras. We are told to-day on -tho authority'of the .military correspondent of;,fche London Tinics..; that the coming trial' of strength between the Allies and the German forces is expected to take place al6ng the lino of country from Gembloux to Ramillies, but the front of the contending armies would no doubt extend over-a niuch greater stretch of- country. The places named would probably bo about'the centre of the attack. Bluoher was driven back over this region the day before Waterloo, but, succeeded in iunctioning with Wellington at Waterloo at the critical moment in tho fortunes of the day's fighting. The country is for the most part undulating,- and as was the case with Wellington, the Allies on' the present occasion should have the advantage'of choosing the ground on which to give" battle. The Kaiser's troops must press forward with all possible haste. The delays which have been occasioned by the stubborn defence of the Belgians said to have led to the congestion of German troops on tho Belgian frontier. The new arrivals no doubt are- the troops which were to have supported the movement into Franco had the way through Belgium;been-cleared aa expected. The statement- that still more German troops are being diverted from tho eastern frontier to assist in the attempted invasion,of France would seem to indicate that in the eyes of Germany, the advance of the Eussian forces is of less, ira r . portance at the moment .than the-hap--penings in the west; : --.France,'it is stated, had. a'; million and a quarter, troops by August' 12, exclusive of-the garrisons of her fortresses. This number, with the Belgian and British troops, should place the Allies at least on an equal footing with the Germans in numerical strength in addition to which the defenders possess the advantage of occupying fortified positions on the German line of advance. \

A message received at one o'clock this morning gives.further- news (if the French operations in Alsace-Lor-raine, which continue to be of- ai encouraging nature. It seems cleai that the French, troops have made a decided forward movement, and that the Germans have been forced forl tho time being to act on the defensive. The news from Russia is better than was expected. The ■ advance of tho main forces a-gainst Germany and Austria began earlier bhan was anticipated, and as a result we may at any time now-learn of serious fighting in' this quarter. It is difficult to reconcile the news that the Kaiser has been withdrawing troops from his eastern frontier, with statements made to-day of the Russian advance. Possibly the Kaiser anticipates that the difficulties which the Russians will encounter en route will delay them sufficiently to enable hira to strike his heavy blow at France before ho will bo called on to seriously face_ tho task of checking tlvs Russian invasion. It is a puzzling situation, but the Allies appear to'hold the advantage in every, direction. The very latest item received tells of a heavy Austrian reverse at, the hands of tho Servians. It is reported that 15,000 Auati'ians were killed. Probably this is an exaggeration, but it is plain that the Servians arc giving tho Außtrians a, lot of trouble

Still no news from the NoTth Sea. There is, however, a very significant item concerning fche effect of the war on Germany's merchant shipping. Out of some 635 Germanowned merchant steamers, it is stated that two hundred—or nearly onethird—have already been captured, while the remainder have had to seek shelter either in German harbours or in neutral ports. What this means to a country with a foreign trade of over £1,000,000,000 annually is not difficult to understand. In 1913 Germany's exports totalled £495,000,000, and her imports £534,000,000,. or, in other words, over £20,000,000 a week. The whole of this'trade is for the time being lost; in addition, ihe has already lost some- millions of pounds worth of shipping, she is spending at the rate of several millions a day on her army and navy, her factories and workshops have been depleted of a. large proportion of their workmen, and there is an accumulating load of misery and hardship with each succeeding day's continuance of the struggle. It is merely a question of time as to how long Germany can boar "Elie tremendous strain. Her resources are great, and few can doubt that she had prepared for a heavy struggle; but she could never have anticipated being placed in the position in which she finds herself today. The people of Germany will probably have a bitter settling with, their war lords,- who have brought the trouble on them, when the day of reckoning comes. The-cheering intelligence of the arrival of our ocean-going trading steamers at their various ports of destination is a bright spot in the situation. The public should bear' in mind that the absence of the movements of overseas shipping does not. indicate any lack of activity in that direction. The reason is that as a precautionary measure, shipping movements are not being recorded'in fche newspapers until the vessels reach their destination. With our trade' routes open, insurance rates lowered, and financial arrangements. in London on an improved footing, the momentary check in trade and business in the Dominion should speedily pass. ' Timid people who have been buttoning up their pockets and viewing the future with gloomy pessim'ism should take heart from the fact that so long as our trade routes remain open New Zealand cannot suffer any material Joss. Her greatest danger at'the moment is a tendency to exaggerate the possibilities of trade dislocation, and by so doing assisting to bring about the very" state-of things the pessimists. fear.

A cablegram ' from Washington states that tho American people are learning that in the twentieth century there is no place for an isolated United States. Recent events have shown that it is impossible for any great Power to act the part of an indifferent spectator in regard "to international politics. .No nation can completely out itself-off from the rest of the world. Ever/Power must bo ready to protect any of its people who may lie living in other lands, and also to safeguard its commercial interests. This means that it must have relationships with , other countries. In days gone by the Atlantic Ocean formed a real_ barrier between Europe and'America,-'and enabled the United States to hold aloof from the disputes and rivalries of European nations: but the wonderful improvements wnich - have taken place in recent years in the- facilities for travel and commerce have turned this barrier into a connecting link. In this way the whole world is being drawn ■together, and isolation ha_s ceased to/be possible, Japan's ultimatum provides a striking illustration of this'fact. Amerioa has interests in the Far East; and' is very anxious to know exactly what the Japanese . 'mean to do! Wo are. .told that , tho United States Government considers Japan's explanation to 'be satisfacbut the incident shows that America must inevitably be drawn into the arena of world politics whether she likes it or ,not. A triumphant Germany would pay little regard, to the Monroe doctrine if it stood in her,path. The result of tho present war cannot therefore be a ' matter of indifference to the nations on the other side of tho Atlantic. >

The bffer_ of President Wilson to act as mediator, between the nations engaged in the present war was no doubt made with the best intentions, but the likelihood of its acceptance was from the first extremely remote: and no one will be surprised to learn that Britain, France, and Austria have definitely rejected the proposal. The time for mediation Las gone past. The conflict must now proceed until ono side or the other is crushed or sues for peace. A patched-up peace would only result in the postponement of the day of reckoning. During the present crisis Germany her hand, and has made it quite evident that it has been her settled policy to dominate Europe by force of arms.. There can be no lasting peace until her powers 'of aggression have been, shattered; , Britain, France, and itussia have good reason to be satisfied -with the progress of the struggle up to the present. They hold a Very strong position, and are not at all likely to listen to any suggestions of mediation wherever they may come from. Only by carrying the conflict to the decisive, point can the foundations be laid 'of a period of permanent peace Britain did not desire or provoke the war,; but now that she has -been forced into , it she must.'see it through.