WAR INEVITABLE

Dominion, Volume 7, Issue 2212, 27 July 1914, Page 5

WAR INEVITABLE

■ AUSTRIA'S SUDDEN DEMAND

RELATIONS WITH SERVIA RUPTURED ■ EUROPE I A FERMENT ARMIES & FLEETS MOVING' '

EXCITEMENT IN EUROPE SERVIA'S REJECTION OF THE .ULTIMATUM. By Telegraph-Press Association-Copyright (Rec. July 27, 0.15 a.m.) London, July 26. There has been excitement in European capitals throughout the day. The Russian Charge d'Affairs called at the Vienna Foreign Office,, and asked for an extension of time for the ultimatum, but received a negative reply. It wa's then rumoured that Servia would accept under protest, but early in the evening it was definitely announced that the. ultimatum had been rejected.

SERVIA'S DECISION AUSTRIAN MINISTER LEAVES BELGRADE SERVIAN ARMY MOBILISING (R«o. July' 26, 5.5 p.m.)' Belgrade, July 25. : There is much «ccitement in Servia. The situation ' is ' consr~i:ed more eerious than prior to the Balkan Yr'ar. The Cabinet's reply is expected to be of an indefinite nature. Belgrade, July 26. Cabinet is in constant session. .The Grown Prince asked ' the' Opposition leaders to accept the decision 1 of the Government to be made at 6ix o'olock. ; M.-Pasics, the Premier, personally visited the Embassy and delivered the Servian Note. The Austrian Minister immediately left Belgrade ' with . the Legation staff. ■ . . , i The King, the .Government, and the garrison left Belgrade with the archive®, ahd the administration will be conducted from Kragujevacs, a strong strategical position. _ ' Orders to mobilise were issued at three'o'clock. The Crown Prince commands tile trpops at Belgrade, but the city is not seriously defended. ■ Kraguyevats,. 'to which' the Servian' Administration has removed, is the capital of the Servian Department of that name, and is about 59 miles south-south-west of Belgrade. It is the main arsenal of Servjia. In the first years of .Servia's autonomy under Prince Milosh it was the residenoe of the Prince and the seat of Government. In 1885 it was J conneoted by a branch line with the main railway to Constantinople. l

AUSTRIANS WELCOME WAR ;' r NEWS. ; ENTHUSIASM AT BUDA PEST. : WARNING TO SERVIA. - (Rec. July 2, 0.30 a.m.) ■ - Vienna, July 26. As a result of iho ultimatum newspapers were'eagerly purchased. Crowds cheered the Emperor and the Kaiser. There was much enthusiasm at Budapest when the rupture of relations was announced. Crowds rt.ir.idptl .the streets crying "Down with Servia." Despite torrents of rain, M. Joyanovitsgh, .the: Servian. .Minister, ..left Vienna. " , Twenty-two Austrian warships assembled .at the Bay of Cattaro.". Partial mobilisation has been ordered. The Foreign Office has- nrinounced that if Servia' at the present' stage takes military measures she will have to pay every penny of the cost of Austna's mobilisation. \

GERMAN PREPARATIONS. FLEET CONCENTRATING. PATRIOTIC 'DEMONSTRATIONS. SOCIALISTS ANTI-TVAE MOVEMENT. (Rec, July 27, 0.30 a.m.) Berlin, July 24. 'The Government has issued a statement that Austria drafted the Note to Soma without consulting Germany, which will hold aloof unless another Power intervenes. In that case slio will fulfil her duty towards her ally. Berjin, July 26. The Kaiser was staying at Bergen, but immediately left for Berlin. All divisions of the German fleet have been ordered to concentrate at proarranged places on tho Norwegian coast. There is oxcitement at Berlin. Newspapers are snatched from the distributors. and tens of thousands are being distributed gratis,. A procession numbering 20,000 gathered on the Untor den Linden, marched through the streets singing the Austrian National Anthem and soldiers' songs. Cheering, took place at the statues of Bismarck and Moltke, and groaning and hooting at the Servian and Russian Embassies. The chief participants in these demonstrations were students, clerks, arid shop assistants, who go to the front if war is declared. Socialists distributing anti-war manifestoes were roughly handled, and their manifestoes trampled underfoot. Tho Socialists are convening many meetings to submit resolutions denouncing war. ■ WAR CONSIDERED INEVITABLE GIGANTIC SLAV-TEUTONIC STRUGGLE. (Rcc. July 2G, 5.5 p.m.) London, July 25. Dr. Dillon, the "Daily Telegraph" correspondent at Vienna, says although an optimistic feeling provails at Vienna, best-informed circles at Budapest considor war inevitable, and that hostilities will begin to-night. It adds that almost everybody in Austria hopes the long-threatened storm will burst, not because national sentiment has suddenly become bellicose', but because the people are sick of tli'e periodiq crises

which-paralyso trade and commerce. The dispute does not turn on the assassination. That at mos't is only an occasion. Tho real causes are deeper. The Austro-Servian differences are the first symntom of a gigantic Slav-Teutonic Struggle.

RUSSIA READY FOR WAR. FIVE ARMY CORPS MOBILISED CABINET'S DECISION. (Rec. July 27, 0.30 a.m.) • St. Petersburg, July 26. At a Cabinet Council the War Minister, General Sukhomlinoff, announced that Russia was in a state of complete military readiness Austria's ultimatum was unanimously regarded as a direct challenge to Russia. He reported that five army corps had been mobilised. , The ultimatum has created a deep impression in Russia. Si. Bazonoff (Foreign Minister), interviewed the. British, French, and German Ambassadors,, and the Servian Minister. Cabinet hold a meeting which lasted, four' hours. It is understood that it was resolved to ask Austria to prolong the time of the. ultimatum to enahle European ; diplomacy to be exercised. Hie Cabinet's View is that Austria cannot be the sole protagonist on the Servian question, and. that Austria's grievances should be laid before the Powers. In the event of Austria refusing to prolong its ultimatum, extreme measures may be looked for owing to the feeling in Russia. THE AUSTRIAN MINISTER INSTRUCTED TO LEAVE BELGRADE (Rec. July 26, 5.5 p.m.) Vienna, July 25. The Austrian Minister at Belgrade has been instructed to leave with the Legation staff to-night, if til© demands are . not complied with. EUROPEAN MARKETS ALMOST A PANIC. ' ' . (Rec. July 27, I a.m.) London, July 26. Imperial Consols are quoted at £73 55., a d'ecline of 40s. since .the previous , day. The Stock Exchange closed in a stn+e of gloom. ; Owing to'rumours, of Russian'mobilisation, even heavier falls were recorded in Paris and Berlin, and there ivas almost a panic in St. Petersburg, particularly in mining and banking shares. . . I; : - -

NEWSPAPER'COMMENTS.

REMARKS OF BRITISH PRESS BEYOND INTERNATIONAL USAGE. ■■-.'■ London, July 25. The leading papers emphasise the gravity of the European situation. Ministers have cancelled thoir weekend engagements chiefly on account of the Austro-Servian crisis. The "Daily Telegraph" says the Austrian Note in tenor and tone goes far beyond international usage. Lord Haldane (Lord Chancellor), addressing the City Liberal Club, said the situation in tho Near East was causing every. Government anxiety, and he hoped Britain's interest. in tho East would be on the side of peace. OPINIONS IN RUSSIA PAPERS ADOPT A DEFIANT TONE. (Rec. July 26, 5.5 p.m.) 'St. Petersburg, July 25 The newspapers declare that Russia cannot be ! indifferent to Servia's fate. Tho "Novoe Vremya," in.'a defiant article, declares that Austria must deal with. Russia unless the ultimatum is withdrawn; also because it is really directed against Russia. COMMENTS BY FRENCH PAPERS ULTIMATUM GENERALLY CON- ' DEMNED.. .., (Rec. July 26, 5.5 p.m.) Pari3, July 25. The Press generally, condemns the Austrian Note. "The Dobati" declares that should Servia be forced into\war she will not appeal vainly for support to the Powers, who wish to maintain the [balance of power at all costs. , Most of the newspapers remark that Austria, has chosen a moment when President Poincare and M. Viviani, Prime Minister, are absent; when Russia is involved in industrial turmoil, and Britain is involved in the Ulster trouble. President Poincare, who has visited Russia, and is taking Norway on. his way back, has been requested by telegraph by tho French Government to abandon his visit to Stockholm and hasten back to Paris. GERMAN PAPERS' OPINIONS W A THIRD PARTY INTERVENES, (lice. July 26, 5.5 p.m.) ' . Berlin, July 25, The newspapers approve the Austrian Note. Tho'"Kreuz Zeitung" says that Labour troubles in Russia, Humbert's revelations in France, and the Ulster question deprive Servia of much;hope of support from Europe. Germany is willing to carry out its duties under tho Triplo Alliance to the fullest. The "Tagcblatt" says if any third party attempts to cripple Austria Germany's power will be thrown- in Austria's favour. The "Neuesto Nachrichton" says: "Let it be known on the .Neva that a Russian attack on Austria means war with Germany." ■ Tho Berlin "Post"' takes Austria to tusk, and says the nature'of the demands makes then) impossiblei It

doubts if Austria desires a settlement except by arms. ITALIAN VIEWS TERRIBLY HUMILIATING. (Roo. July 26, 6.5 p.m.) Rome, July 25. The tono of the Austrian Note has caused amazement. Tho "Tribune" deolares-that Austria wishes to exclude every loophole for conciliation. The Note lias not Italy's approval. The ''Gionialo d'ltalia" says tho Note is tho most terribly humiliating over inflicted on any Stato. It points out that Rumania has power to make it impossible for Austria to attack Servia by raising tht> Transylvania question. • " ' ENTENTE AND TRIPLICE. THE BALANCE OF POWER. _The military correspondent of "The Times" in reviewing the ohanges in European armies effected recently dealt principally with Russia and Germany, which at the moment is of considerable interest; The following is an extract from tho article:— The maintenance of the balance of power between Entente and Triplico on land depends now, and will depend still more in the future, upon the action ot Russia. The reply of Russia to the new German Law is not yet completely known in all its aspects and consequences, but it has apparently been forcible. . The class due for dismissal in January last was kept with tha colours until April 14, and, thanks to this measure, compensa- [ t'ion was secured for the temporary weakness of ■ Prance. More important still is the increase of the annual contingent, which will apparently bt from 125,000 to 1 150,000 men stronger than before., In viewer the fact, tha* colour service in Russia i& from three to four years, according to armi, the total peace establishment will be raised, within that period, by about 450,000 men,.making a total peace strength of about 1,700,000, or approximately double that of Germany. It appears also to be the intention to recall yearly for training two classes of the reserve for six weeks, and this year the 1907 and ,1909 olasses will ioin the colours for the period named. The cost of the Russian army is approximately equal to that of our Army and Navy combined. Russian figures have to be discounted to some extent on account of tho size, of the Russian Empire, the comparative poverty of communications, and certain difficulties which training encounters owing to olimatic and other causes. But even with all duo deductions made, the Russian reply to Germany is next door to a mobilisation in time of peace, and it-quite., accounts for the embittered outburst ol the "Cologne Gazette" and for the German pot calling the Russian kettle black. There is talk of the re-establishment of two army corps at Vilna and Warsaw, and others may bo created as resources become available, but the additional men will apparently bo used mainly to inciease peace establishment in southwestern garrisons in order to enable the troops to take the field with less delay.. There are signs that Russia has done with defonsive strategy, and the steady growth of her naval power in the Baltic,enables her to act with vigour at sea.: It is that Russia is not building 'readnoughts for- action in the :Baltic and the Black Sea alone. The increased number of guns in the Russian army corps, the growing efficiency of the army, and the improvements made or planned m strategic railways are, again, matters which cannot be loft out ot account. • These things are well calculated, to make the Germans anxious. Tho Russian reply to the.German Law, combined with the sacrifices, of Prance and the growth of tho British Navy, completely, revorses the results which Germany .ex-' pected from hor naval and military laws. Neither in peace strengths, nor in aggregate war strengths; nor in numerical strength at sea, will the Triplico have any advantage over the Entente when existing laws and building programmes have worked themselves out. It is u •question on •which .side quality will:rest, for. .the navies and armies opposed to Germany have longer service than have hers. Had'the German Government been wise enough to foresee the action of lie Entente Powers in reply to German Laws, would these latter ever have been drafted, and would tho German Government have imposed upon their people, and upon all people, such great sacrifices? We may bo rjermitted to doubt it. The German people are left worse off in a military senso than they were before, and before then- ambitions have caused sonuo resentment, of which the echoes have recently reverberated through tho Russian Press. We do not mind paying for our own follies, but none of us oaresto bo taxed on account of the ambitious and miscalculations of a, foreign Government. RIVAL ARMIES. AUSTRIAN AND SERVIAN FORCES. According to the latest available information, the war strength of the Austrian Army is estimated' as under:—-. 1 . Common Army 1,300,000 Austrian Reserve 240,000 Hungarian Reserve .220,000 ■■■',--.'.'■•. '.'',. 1,820,000 It is .believed that by embo'dying all classes of the "Landstrum,".,or second reserve, over 3,500,000 men could uttf inately be put iii tho field, trained and untrained. -. ; The Servian Army, first and second lines, number about 195,000 -men. '; The peace strength of Russia in Europe is 949,000, made up as follows:— Infantry 827,000 - Cavalry : 116,000 Artillery 138,000 Engineers ... ;. 34,000 Army Service , 84,000 : .-..'. ''949,000 Including Cossacks and Frontier 1 Guards, some authorities give the total peace strength' at 1,400,000. including 60,000 in Turkistan, and 280,000 in Russia. Tho war strength of the Russian forces consists of about 56,500 officers and 2,855,000 men. These form the active Army, but are not all available in any one part of the Empire. To ■ these figures must be added the available reserves, estimated at; 1,064,000; frontier battalions, 41,000; Cossacks, 150,000. The war strength in trained men is estimated at 5,400,000. The peace strength of the German Army according to the now law passed when the first Balkan War created a disturbance was fixed' at 835,000 to 870,000, according to the season of the year. The total war strength is at' present approximately 4,350,000 men, including the field army and its reserve formations, but the highly-trained and vigorous .first lino ivould not greatly exceed 1,600,000. ,' Tho French Army provided for in tho estimates of 1913 was fixed at 33,700 officers and 675,000 men. The total first line effective of the 'French Army on a war footing is estimated at 2,500,000, and 2,000,000 older men could be placed in the field. On July 14 M. Charles Humbert, reporter for the Army Committee, surprised the French Government by disclosing in the Chamber of Deputies administrative scandals. ■ , He accused the General Staff, of gross incompetence. .si Ho said manufacturers were supplying armoured turrets inferior to those furnished to foreign countries. Tho supply of gun ammunition is insufficient, and the shells aro old and dangerous to handle. The Howitzers are old and inferior to Germany's. French inventors were not encouraged. • The Government arranged to spend four millions sterling upon a mortar invented in Franco in 1910, but nothing was yet dene, though it is now employed in the services of Germany and .Russia. Communications between the fortresses on the eastern frontier were hopelessly deiipiont. The army is short of two million pairs of boots, and in the event of war the soldiers would start to tho front with none except those on their feet. The army at present had only sufficient pontoons and other equipment to cross the Moselle and the Rhine. Millions had been voted for defence, and l wasted. Parliament, ho thought, would consent to any indispenfcable sacrifices, but it was essential to reorganise the defence administration. In Italy the mean; peoce effective is about 250,000,: r.nd the total war strength nb?ut a.220.000, of whom 1,020,000 are more or less trained.

M. Messing (Minister of War) admitted that most of M, Humbert's facts, taken separately, were correct, if not as presented, but yet as exceptions. AUSTRIA'S BALKAN POLICY. A GENERAL'S PLAN FOE WAR'" ON SERVIA. ' The far-reaching double aim of 4nstrias Balkan policy was explained with refreshing bluntness by General Karl von Lang in Danzei-'s "Afmeezeituiig," eighteen months ago. , In that important publication the General recommended a solution of tho Balkan- problem on the following basis :— 1. An autonomous Albania should bo created which.-should be placed under tho protection of Austria-Hungary, 2. An organic: connection betweon Aus-tria-Hungary and Albania should bo eltected by Austria-Hungary seizing Western Servia as far as the line Morriva, Kumanova, Skoplje, Kalkandelen. 8. Montenegro should bo confined to the possession of tho territories which were in the possession of that State before the outbreak of the Balkan. War, and should be compelled to conclude an Alliance with ..Austria-Hungary. ■Should Montenegro fail to do this, it should bo seized by Austria-Hungary. : ■i. Salonika and tho railway from bkoplio to Salonika should be internationalised. o. The North-Eastern, portion of Servia, l^lAft o^ o Vidin - Zejecar, Paracin, sllould fall to Rumania. 6. South-Eastern Servia and tho neigh.bourmg part of, Macedonia should be given to Bulgaria. Tile acquisition of •Kfese Servian territories and of tho terri- .?!'! e ? ""Wed from Turkey should satisfy Bulgaria, and induce her to enter into the closest, relations with "AustriaHungary. General von Lang recommerids not only a Protectorate over an "autonomous" Albania, but also the partition of Servia, which is to-become another Poland. He also aims at bringing tho western part ot the Balkan Peninsula, under the sway of Austria-Hungary, and he hopes that Bulgaria may be induced to enter into the. closest connection with the Dual Monarchy.- The distinguished General apparently aims at bringing tho whole Balkan Peninsula with Constantinople under Austrian sway. To effeot th-» Austramsation of the Balkan .Peninsula. General von Lang recommends that eight pr Austrian army corps should attack Servia and Montenegro. Within a fortnight after the Austrian invasion, the Slavonic neighbours of tin Dual Monarchy would find their Sedan at Kragujewatz. The General forsesees that.Russia, and perhaps Italy as well, might oppose Austria's .policy in , the B/Jkan Peninsula. Therefore ho. recommends that, whilst eight or nine army corps are attacking Servia and Montenegro, other Austrian army corps , should be mobilised on the Italian frontier in order to keep Italy in check. If Russia should intervene,: Germany should conio to Austria's aid. She woul Ibe obliged to do so. in her own interests. The four eastern army corps of Germany could flelay a Russian attack long enough to enable Germany, to smash Pranch with the bulk of her army. Rumania could giye valuable help to Austria and Germany against-Russia, whilst Bulgaria ■might be'kent busy by the-Turkish army.