"NUMERO'S" MARE'S NEST.

Dominion, Volume 7, Issue 2172, 10 June 1914, Page 9

"NUMERO'S" MARE'S NEST.

Sir, —Tho Rev. W. Ke'ay recently made a hopelessly erratic attempt to show that m New South Wales, after the introduction of State-given religious instruction, tho criminal convictions fell to about half. In Thf. Dominion of May 8 I showed that ho was hopelessly incorrect, and further that New South AValos as comparod with Victoria had BO per cent, moro summary convictions, 59 per cent, more drunkenness. fiO por cent, moro Supromo Court convictions, 80 per cent, moro divorces, 23 per cent, moro illegitimacy, and 45 per cent, moro people in gaol. Then came "Numcro" in your issue of May 13, in a letter full of jibos at my alleged ignorance' of what I was talking about, and with many a parado of his own knowledgo "of the, exact soience of statistics," ho proceeded to point out a note in tho "Year Book" which ho declared I had overlooked,' and which invalidated tho figures I gave. In your issuo of May 25 I proved that "Numero's" discovery (?) referred only to drunkenness, and that I not only knew of it, but had moro than allowed for it. If I had ■ made the mistake he attributed to me I would have said that in New South Wales drunkenness was about 250 per cent, worse than in Victoria, whereas I made a more than safe allowance, with tho result that I stated 39 per cont. Now comes "Numoro" again in vour issue of Juno 5, and instead of admittipg tho huge blunder ho made, and that my figures wore correct, and that he owes' mo an apology, ho tries amid » maze of ; statements to.

cover his disgrace as an expert in "tho oxact science of statistics." Note first, that he does not attempt now to dispute my figures. Ho daro not, Next ho tacitly admits that my comparison 10 Supreme Courts, gaols, divorce, and illegitimacy is correct, for ho confines his ' attention to the comparison re drunkenness. To my charge that' ho had attempted to mako the paragraph on drunkenness, takon from the Year Hook; invalidate my figures on other phases of crime, "Numero" now declares that ho never said the paragraph referred to all the phases ot crime, I quoted. I say emphatically that "Numero" quoted a paragraph which roferred only to drunkenness, but ho did not let it bo known that this was so. Ho allowed tho paragraph to refer to every phase of crime I had roferred to. Let anyone read I "Numero's" letter of May 13 and sec if I am not correct.

Next, '-'Numero" quotes another paragraph to show that convictions for drunkenness are not tho best evidence of tho relative drunkenness of Victoria and New South Wales, and to do this he actually refers to West Australia and Tasmania. Does "Numero" deny the extra drunkonness iii New South Wales? That is tho matter at issue. Unfortunately for him, in the samo week as his lotter appeared came a cablegram from Sydney stating that "New South Wale 3 was the most drunken State in Australasia." ' \ In answer to "Numero's" query why I did not quote tho first paragraph whon giving my figures, I say that I did bettor. -I more than allowed for tho discrepancy shown in the first paragraph by counting every arrest for drunkenness in Victoria as a conviction. In answer to liis other query, why I did not refer to Tasmania, I reply that I was actually giving duo weight to "Numero's" second paragraph, which he acouses me of concealing. . I obeyed that paragraph by not referring to Tasmania, West Australia, Chatham Islands, or Scotland, because their conditions are so much different.from those of yictoria and New South Wales. So I did as the Year Book advised. I compared Victoria and New South Wales, where all conditions aro almost identical, except that in New South Wales .the people lean on the broken reed of State-given, official, formal, perfunctory religious' instruction, given largely under compulsion. Yet because I obeyed the directions of the paragraph, instead of quoting it, "Numero" accuses ine of "concealment of facts." 'Nothing can hide the facts—(a) that "Numero" attributed to mo a mistake I did not make; (b) that "Numero" left, it to appear that his paragraph referred to all phases,of crimo; (c) that "New South Wales is the most drunken State in Australasia"; -(d) that "Numero," while parading his knowledge only exhibited his ignorance; (e) t-liat I gave more than full weight and allowance to,what lie says I was ignorant of, and, finally (f), that "Numero" is not man enough to admit that, his jibes and sneers at my alleged ignorance have recoiled on his own exposure as a muddler in -"the exact science of statistics."—l am, etc., JNO. CAUGHLEY.