MR. CAUGHLEY'S MUDDLED STATISTICS.'

Dominion, Volume 7, Issue 2147, 13 May 1914, Page 9

MR. CAUGHLEY'S MUDDLED STATISTICS.'

' Sir, —I don't want to intrude between the parties about Bible in -schools, but as one with a lifetime experience- in statistics I feel so sorry for Mr. Caughley giving himself away to tho enemy that someone ought id help him out of his plight. I havo no doubt ho is a. good schoolmaster, and accordingly has to devote so much-of his time to tho occu-. pat-ion which provides him with a livelihood that it is not his fault but his misfortune that ho should have so littlo time for the study of the exact science of statistics that when he touches them he reveals himself as incompetent to deal with them, through lack of knowledge, of tho principles which govern statistics. For instance,, there must be correlation ■of facts, and these Mr. Gaughley does not supply; and even then facts are not truths unless all tho facts are stated; neither does he state all the facts. In occasionally noticing Mr. Caughley's numerous letters, 1 observed he lays great stress on the , virtue of honesty in dealing with public questions, so of course it is not that on which I am reflecting; it is merely 'his pitiablo (lack of knowledge, and which knowlodge when supplied to him will at once be followed','because-he says so much about honesty, by his thanking me for supplying him with information of which ho is not possessed. I say that because 'he-..quotes- the Commonwealth "Year Book," 1912. Ho must have made -a slip here, because the very top of tho page 910 from which he appears ito raako up his figures (not giving the 1 figures in tho "Year Book") contains the following paragraph :— "Tho number of convictions is, as might naturally bo oxpectcd, almost • identical wifh the number of cases. Victoria, however, is an exception, hut in this State it-is explained that offenders - are generally discharged on a first appearance, and no conviction is recorded, a similar ' procedure being also adopted in tho • case (if those arrested on Saturday I and detained in custody till Mon- - day. The logic of excluding, these ', cases from the list of convictions w certainly open to doubt." .' The table then follows, and to it is attached tho following statement: — . "Tho convictions for drunkenness • taken by themselves are riot an altogether satisfactory test of tho relative sobriety of tho inhabitants of each State, inasmuch as several important factors must be taken into consideration. The age constitution of the people, for example, is by no means identical in each State, Western Australia having by far tho largest proportion of adult males. ■ ' The avocations of tho people affect the result, sinco persons engaged in strenuous callings are, on the whole, more likely to indulge in alcoholic stimulants than, those employed in ... I less arduous ones. The distribution . 1 of tho population is also a factor, ;l the likelihood of arrest . for drunkenness, obviously being : greater in the more densely populated regions;- and, lastly, allowance must be made for the attitude of the Magistracy, the police, and.tho. , ■ public generally with regard, to'the.'', offence." •.',-.. .-..,.. ...... -.., ,■;„;,.; , Someone mtist.ha.vcr.shown M-toC/wish-,,. ley'tho figures-withqut the explanatory notes which: I have' printed, otherwise it would be -impossible for him, aa an honest man, -to-make uso of -figures without' attaching to them tho statements which leave the ■ figures. - "logic ; . . certainly open to doubt," and ~ which state dofmito.lv that "convictions for drunkenness taken by_ themselves are not an altogether satisfactory test of the relative sobriety of the inhabitants of each State." The Victorian "Year Book." 19111912, adds another piece of evidence: — "In somo cases also when an offender has ( been admitted to bail, • ho is discharged on putting a donation into tho poor box. In all theso cases ho conviction is recorded in Victoria, but in tho other States a conviction is entered on tho records in nearly ei'ery case, whether any punishment is inflicted or not." Mr. Caughley doubtless will accept the opinions of the Government Statist of Victoria and of tho Commonwealth Statistician, now that they havo been pointed out to him. Yet 1 cannot believe so honest a man as Mr. Caughley has really seen the actual figures in the book from which ho makes up his, because on the same page 910 from which lie would suggest ho took his figures appears the convictions for drunkenness for Tasmania. These for 1911 are.stated to be 38.9 per 10,000 of tho population, Victoria being 56.8 (the Victorian figures being already accounted for as certainly open to doubt, and not an altogether satisfactory .test of tho relative sobriety of the inhabitants of eacli State). As Mr. Caughley is honest, he must therefore be unaware that Tasmania is ' a Bible-in-Schools State, and consequently that on his method of argument, which no statistician would resort to, the explanation in Mr. Caughley's lojuc and language would bo "that in Tasmania" the Churches, ministers, and pa-rents do not faw tho whole responsibility of religious' r instruction, and their superior position in regard to drink is duo to theit: leaning on the broken reed of formal, mechanical. largely compulsory, Stater given religious instruction." I'neod not pursue Mr. Caughley any further. When he explains why bo used ficcuros'from the Commonwealth "Year Book'-' without tho accompanying explanations which are essentinl to their prooer understanding, and when he explains why his informant omitted to nut the Tnsmanian figures before him, it will be time enouah to give him anofcher'lesson in statistics. Perhaps when he gets a-vacation from school teaching he may bp able to devote the necessary time to learning something of that exact science in which' he as yet is only a sciolist.—l am, etc., - NUMERO.