ENGLISH WOOL TRADE.

Dominion, Volume 7, Issue 1975, 4 February 1914, Page 4

ENGLISH WOOL TRADE.

THE 1913 SEASON. A DISAPPOINTING YEAR J - (From Our SDecial CorMepondeiits.i Bradford, December 26. No matter from what standpoint the past year is looked at, nothing satisfactory can be said regarding it. The' fair promise with which the year opened has not been realised, and instead of trade making the progress that was anticipated, nothing but declension and joss- aro to lo chronicled. In a word, it may bo said that tho year began well, but-ended badly, and' many will have, reason-to remember 1913 as the worst since the ever memorable slump of 1908. Very few indeed were prepared tor the decline in trade and the sensible tall in tho price of v.cfcl, tops, yams, and pieces, and balance-sheets will exhibit anything but an inspiring appearance. The.lirni is to bo congratulated who lias been.fortunate enough not to lose money. It now looks .as if tho end of the- period of boom has arrived, but there was nothing to indicate that up to last April, when prices for the raw material touched high-water mark, and when trade continued to be good. Many made contracts for the remaining months of the year, which have lost them money; in fact, some of the earlier ones are still as a millstone around the neck ..of consumers, having led to trouble at the present time.

Wool paramount. The outstanding feature of the trade has been tho dominant position occupied by wool itself. When the year- dawned the raw material occupied a very exalted position, and in face of active markets at all buying centres, coupled with great activity at all mills, it looked as if what was, then bought Would prove to bo right.- -In fact, as alreadv said, the year dawned with a favourable outlook, and everywhere users had confidence in operating. The result was that from January to the end of March active wool 'markets obtained everywhere, for riot only in Australia, South Africa, and London, but even in consuraing..fccntres it was possible to book orders fairly freely, and everywhere a large forward business was done, with the expectation that what was bought would prove to be right. Nothing transpired to really arrest tho upward movement of values till the middle of April, although tho:o f were signs which were sufficiently significant to cause observant members 'of tho trade to seriously consider thorn, ,4 s a matter of fact, both January; and .March London sales saw prices dearer, and this in face of the continued.Balkan war, dear money, and labour troubles throughout the West Biding. As a matter of fact, all went well up to the end of April, when less active markets obtained in Bradford. It is rather remarkable, but up to that time , the shortage "bogey" had been boomed for all it.was worth, and wo aro satisfied, to-day that many bought by way of, anticipating future needs, fully expecting that with 'the approach of autumn wool would be sensibly dearer.' Tho, trade -was faced with. serious deficiencies in. the clips of Australia and tho River Plate, tho estimates being 300,000 bales for the former and 80,000 te- 90,000 bales for tho latter. This "bogey',' was. probably ' the strongest factor in inducing the big forward business which- was done during the first three or four months of -tho-\ ear, practically the whole trade, being convinced that itho ,raw -material was safo, and that-by August,, to October''we; should probably see prices matefially-,liigbor fpr i; every class of .raw.material. No 'doubt' that, was very, sound reasoning as far as it went, but a.still more important factor had been' overlooked. By the end. of April, the general trade, of' tho world began slacken, and the aftereffects of. tho' long-continued' Balkan war began to manifest themselves.'..lt should be recognised once and for all that war is'a very destructive force. No nation can be embroiled in hostilities, for six to nine months without being impoverished, and the Near East has suffered very severely, trade m textiles 'being largely brought to a standstill. As a matter of fact, it paralysed tho -trade of 'Austria and Hungary, bringing about very 'many failures. The declino began at the end of May, and ever since wool, tops) and yarns have been affected, slackening in trade increasing, bringing with it a steady declino in alf commodities. The following table sliowb the course- of values for good standard average merino and crossbred wools at the first,' third, and sixth ' series :of London sales: — . . ~ Average Price Per Lb. ■ ..'■"■':'" .; : Jan-. May. .Dec. Description. d. d. d. Vic, Western, good.q'lt'y. .17 18 17} 18* 16J 17 N.S.W:, River- '" ■ . • ~ ina, good staple 14115} 1-1* 15} 14 15 N.S.W., ,N. England, fine, .sound ..... 15 16 15} 16} 14 15 Qu'sl'd., Cen- ',;'.■ tral, wellgrown ' staple ......... 14 15 14 15 13} 14 S..Aust;,Mid- . , . lands, fair ..-■"-'... ■'•■• ' condition-;.; 11} 12 ' llf 12}" 11} 12 N.Z., 'S. Is/- ' ■': ' // ;.; - land,' 1 fair' ■•',•• .. ; . ' character 12} 13} 12} 13}11} 12} Cape Colony, Kaffrarian, ■•"' . good' .',.... 11} 12; 11} 12' 11} 12-. Capo-Colony, • \ s "'; s li or. t, '•".-. v/'asty •''..: 'B}\ 9 ' B'9 ■'" 8 B} : .. NEW ZEALAND CROSSBREDS. Average Price Per Lb. Jan. May. , Doc. Description. ' d. d. d. Half - bred, super 50's56's 14} 15} 14 14} 12 12} Crossbred, medium - 4G's ;'...... 12} 13 11}'12} 11 11} Crossbred, ' ■ coarse ,40's 10} 11}' 10} 11} 10} 11 Crossbred, coarse 36's 10} 11 10} 11 10 11}

The Top Market. ' Tops havo followed in tho wake of raw material, and those producing them have had a money-losing experience. Wo cannot see where either merino or crossbred topmakers can have dono any pood whatever during tho past year, particularly thoso engaged in producing qualities from 32's to C 6's: Business was all-right for tho first four months of tho year, but ever since a very depressing time has had to be faced, all duo to prices steadily declining, and tho demand decreasing. As already said, topmakers did a very satisfactory forward business up to tho middle of April, their difficulty being to obtain thd raw material to meet contract prices. Wool all tho time remained the top dog, in fact, it has been ahead of either, tops, yarns, or pieces all through the year. • Enamoured with -tho prospect of materially higher prices in tho autumn, topmakors bought very largely both ilrtho colonies and, London during the first five months of tho year, especially those engaged in the crossbred trade. Feeling confident that values would be materially higher in September and October, importers bought very heavily in New Zealand, hoping that American buying would bo sufficiently pronounced to lead to a profit being secured oi\ the wools Ibeli purchased. Unfortunately, directly it readied Home, slackness began to make itself manifest, the expectations regarding American wero not realised, and importing topmakers with ■' large stacks soon found themselves in a very difficult

position. As- a matter of fact .prices have steadily declined during the past seven months, and those who have neld on to their stocks see to-day the mistake they have made.. .The following table shows the values of tops at different dates of the year, the qualities given being those which aw most interesting to users: — JrtSU. JufteJO, Oct. ii. 8bc.21 Description. d, <1. d. d, 80's colonial tops 32, 33 SiJ- 294 VO's colonial tops 30 JOi 29i 28 64's colonial tops 282-29 2/3'j 28J-2.83 27 - GO'3 colonial' tops, ordinary 27 'Ui 271 24' 55's colonial tops. average til 23 22 jl 50's colonial tops, average 20 251 191 181 Ws colonial tops, carded 16J-17 17J Uhiii 151-153 <o'b colonial tops prepared I$J 16-16J151-553 14J We colonial tops, carded 15} 15J 151 W1443 36's colonial tops, prepared 15)45! 163-16 15} 141 The spinning industry lias had a very different experience from anything enjoyed during the past throe or four :years. It will Ira remembered that ever since the last slump spinners have been, "on velvet." They have been ablo to keep frames running at full pressure, at the, same, time securing very satisfactory margins. The past .year has been the opposite, at lea-st fully sis months of it, and what was made during the earlier months of the year • cannot but havo been lost during the remaining part. Home trade spinners if anything have done . best, but. the demand for piece goods has fallen off.

The 'American Factor. There is no aspect of the trade which has engaged the. attention of the trade so much as that relating to the United. States, due to tho passing of the new tariff which placed wool npon 'the free list and inaugurated very materially lower duties for partly ainl fuHy-maim' factufed articles. The prospective demand of United' States users his been like a will-o'-the-wisp, and those /who pinned .their faith to a big revival on American account see to-day the costly mistake they have mad<j, 3?ree wool was inaugurated on December l t but so far it has made.no difference either to -demand or price, and on January 1 the lower duties _on paT% and fully-maini-faetured articles come into operation. Great hopes have been entertained of a big business with the United States, but _so far expectations, hate, been realised. We have not mentioned the great haste there -was to buy the lish new clip in, expectation of a record American demandj it being a ease of buying in a hurry and repenting at leisure. Even to-day the 'eyes of tho wool trado are turned westward, and expectations are still great concerning the possible big demand for wool and its allied products during tho earlier months of 1914. Only time will prove whether the present confidence of inany. members of the trade has been misplaced, but' throughout tho whole year tho American factor has failed, to bring any benefit to 'any section of the trade, consequently 1913 is passing with •unrealised hopes, and with expectations "up to now greatly shattered'.

Looking Ahead. ■ In anticipating the future of the wool and textile, trades, there seem to bp very few reasons to lead ono to expect great things,in the immediate future. There has been a material doeliute in the requirements of tho Home tradft, there existing to-day very considerable stocks of practically everything into which wool enters. The top and yarn trade has not..yet got over the. Balkan war,' thoro is financial stringency in' every country, to some extent less confidence, and a decline in trade generally-, consequently the ■ outlook is not so bright-as wo havo'been accustomed to see. during recent years. Anrerioa seemo to be the only place from which' any decided aan bo -expected to come,'and'we do; "ll'ot think it policy on the part of tho trado to hone for too much. Wool continues to lie'bought .very.;readily, at-tho selling 'centre's' "down under," but so far as the llomo trade is,concerned there, has been very little response. • : Prices have declined until wo think they are Hearing a fairly safe buying level, but we must admit not being so enthusiastic over the future of trade as some. What wo want to seo above, all is renewed confidence, and a revival of business nn Home trade account. The very mild autumn and winter had no doubt played havoc with the wholesale cloth trade, and as far as ono can gauge the future there is nothing to indicate a return to higher values. We have maintained all along that materially lower prices would pave tho way for renewed activity, and with the price of merino tops having fallen from'3s. Cd.-'to 2s. 2Jcl., the decline, is considerable So far aS call bo Seen at present tho outlook isiioue too bright, but -given, peace in the political and labour worlds, together with general good trade across the Atlantic, we think 1914 should produce an- average business, though wo certainly think that before prices take an upward turn there will,have to bo,renewed jcoafidoncß in values, and,, above all, more real activity in Homo trado circles.