YORKSHIRE LETTER.

Dominion, Volume 6, Issue 1862, 23 September 1913, Page 5

YORKSHIRE LETTER.

OUTLOOK FOR THE NEW CLIP;

THE AMERICAN FACTOR,

(From Our Sp<x©l Correspondents.) Bradford, August IS. Already the pastoralists of Australia, and for that matter those of South Africa as well, have their eyes fixed upon the forthcoming new clip. We will briofly consider tho outlook for raw material, for all our readers can but bo interested in tho factors .which arc going to operate in determining tho ruling prices for tho forthcoming clips of Australia, Now Zealand, South Africa, and the River Plate. It is always out of the immediate past that tho near future takes definite shape. In other, words, what .has beeri. dono during recent months will determine tho course of values for material yet to bo sold. As we look back wo are compelled to recogniso that things have not been altogether satisfactory, but nothing has transpired to seriously affect prices. It is well known that tho price of tops in Bradford has slightly declined, say, a good penny per lb. for merinos. But that is not 6 per cent, per lb., and in tho wool trade there will be always fluctuations of 5 to 10 per cent., oven in days of pronounced activity. Prices can but bo regarded as very good, notwithstanding the slight setback, and it appears as if wo shall seo a continuation of to-day's" rates. Wo are not looking for any advance in values, unless America sets to work in good oarnost, and buys extensively, which' is not likely, but it sqems probable that values will crystallise around to-day's lovel. There is nothing to indicate that wo are entering upon an era of .lower values, although as already said, there are bound to be slight ups and downs in all markets. At tho same time, that docs not suggest clieap wool; in fact, that is as. far off as cvor. Whon one thinks of the present standing of tho raw material* it must bo admitted that prices are fairly high, and much as manufacturers. desiro to see cheaper wool, tops and yarns wo do not think prices are going to bo very much different from what they are to-day during the next 6ix weeks.

Why Values Have Receded. , It is always wise to get to the bottom and find out tho real cause of the mischief when it is found that something is wrong, and tho wool trade does not provide an exception to tho rule. AY© have had six weeks of quietness, and although consuming markets are somewhat better, tho situation is such as warrants no man in saying that things are out of tho wood, and that we are in for another boom. AYo quito believe that the worst is past, but all tho samo there is not that free now of new orders which we would liko to see, and which, until tho quietness complained of commenced, has been in evidenco for the past three years. The majority of mills in the A\ r est Riding are being fairly well run, although somo have standing machinery. AVo are satisfied that there •is nothing whatever wrong with tho situation, and tho. recent little flurry in prices and the quieter state of manufacturing circles, is only an evidence of tho keen desiro on the part of the ultimate wholesale fabric buyer for cheaper raw material. Manufacturers have recently been showing for the spring season of 1914, and nave found great difficulty in inducing their customers to pay prices in harmony with tho in.creased cost of wool. That is really tho position of things to-day. The prico of an averago C 4's top in Bradford for spot delivery is 2s. 5d., and among tiio best peoplo there is a unanimous opinion that a season's trade cannot be done on a basis of half-a-crown in tho top. At least these prices have never been paid throughout tho whole of one season, and many peoplo to-day aro still largely influenced by what thoy have seen in days gone by. Thoy point to tho fact that whenever tho prico of 64's tops has reached 2s. 6d. and over, it has jiovor remained thero abovo a month or two, and great losses have always resulted. No doubt an earnest desiro to prevent these high prices is the reason why wholesale fabric buyers wero not willing to respond to tho demands which manufacturers made for tho new cloths of 1914. .

Looking Forward Hopefully,

Fairly strong hopes are entertained that iiio Homo trado will continue to bo good. We do not say that higher prices are likely to be made; in fact, as previously stated, we do not think tho coming Australian clip will be lifted at any moro than to-day's values, and there will bo every reason for thankfulness if theso can bo mado through tho coming sooson. .We

certainly think that the Home trade is well able to take caro of itself, tlio futuro of wool, values depending very largely upon what Franco, Germany, and America do. Soino seem to think that all these countries will require big weights of wool. Let us hopo tlieywill. Wo hardly think America will bo a big buyer just yet, the coming clip and its resting.largely in the hands of the- Home and Continental trades. On© doos not like to be too emphatic in asserting anything, but as far as wo are able to judge there is every appearance to-day of buying limits for the first Adelaide sale being around 2s. 4Jd. for 64's, though what happens between ' now and September will determine entirely how that sale will go. It is well known that already some fair 'weights of toils have been-, sold forward ifiar Deoembar-January- delivery oil a basis of 2s. 3Jd. for the quality ..just named. This shows .to 'some extent the position of importers and what they are expecting, but if wool can be bought ill Australia oil such a basis, -we are satisfied that it will lay the foundation for a big progressive business next season. Even at this price the figures paid for wool will be very good, but all tlio same it seems to us as if a start will bo made upon a 2s. 4£d. basis, and if less it will suit admirably Yorkshire as well as French and German buyers.

Tha American Facto/. Wo have already made montion of tho prospective requirements of America. Tho whole .trade. is waiting to Bee .tho new tariff through tho >Senato, and to know when tho new duties are likely to take effect. United States manufacturers seem to be anywhero at present; intact, half the looms across tho Atlantic are still standing. uncertainty has kept back trade, and whether there is going to be free wool on October 1 or December Ino one can toll. At tho samo tirno all American authorities seem satisfied that there .will not be a great deal of buying done in inerinos this side of Christmas, but one never knows. They point to tho considerable stocks which are at present in bond, and it will take a month or two for United States mills to got to know how their products will faro in competition with tho cloths imported from the West Riding. However, we are satisfied on one point, namely, that a big business is going to be done in cither one thing or another, and whatever it be, it can but have a beneficial effect upon tho raw material. Wool will be consumed in cither Yorkshire ,or tho United States. Piece goods are bound to be taken, for stocks of fully manufactured goods in the hands of' both wholesale and retail clothiers aro exceedingly light across tho Atlantic. Wo therefore think that American influence i 3 being rather underestimated, and that with, time tho whole industry will feel the effects. of her competition, and receive the benefit of the demand she makes for wool-mado fabrics. Directly tho period of uncer-. tainty ends and the trade knows when tho new duties are going to take effect, things will bo put into more definite shape. Below we show the stocks in bond at the three principal ports . July 26. July 27. ' 1913. 1912.v Olass 1, Merinos & crossbrods ... 40,075,240 Class 2, Englishwools 2,031,675 1,074,634 Class 3, Carpet wools 25,734,880 12,694,739 Totals 67,841,795 50,674,264 I