The Dominion. WEDNESDAY, SEPTEMBER 10, 1913. AN OMINOUS OUTLOOK.

Dominion, Volume 6, Issue 1851, 10 September 1913, Page 6

The Dominion. WEDNESDAY, SEPTEMBER 10, 1913. AN OMINOUS OUTLOOK.

Though Mr. Balfour may lack some of the qualifications generally considered essential fpr success ,as a party leader, he is individually the most influential, personality in the House of Commons, and is oertainly the greatest intellectual force in British politics at the present day. A speech by Mr. Balfour always carries weight both in Parliament and in the country. He has the gift of lifting a controversy above the plane of passion and prejudice, and of seeing things in .their true proportion. He is not in the habit of speaking unless ho has something ' really worth saying, and he has the faculty of stating; his views with a felicity of expression and keenness of intellect which compel attention and respect. In tho light of these facts it is not surprising that his speech at Haddington on Home Rule, a summary of which has appeared in our cable columns, has created a profound impression in tho United Kingdom, and that it has given an impulse to the belief that there will be a general election in the spring. Mr. Balfour contends that such a fundamental ohango as that involved in the Homo Rule Bill ought not to be made without a clear mandate from the people, and that mandate has not yet been asked for or given. It'has been rumoured that the Government does not intend to appeal to tho country until after the Bill has become Jaw. If this is correct such a policy merits the severest condemnation, and, taking all the circumstances into consideration, Mr. Balfour is only uttering the' plain truth when he says that he cannot conceive a policy so atrocious as refusing the country . the opportunity of pronouncing on the Bill until all passions have been aroused, in the North and South of Ireland, and until all the administrative inconveniences have occurred which would be inevitable if • tho Bill were repealed after it had been passed, and while tho whole temper of tho country was at fever-heat..

_ The debates during the recent session of Parliament, the recent speeches in various parts of the country, and the military preparations in Ulster, combine to show that the danger of civil waf is very real, and to an impartial onlooker it seems sheer madness for the Government to drive headlong to disaster. The by-elections have proved . that it is losing the confidence of the people, but the compact with the Nationalists compels Mb. Asquith and -his colleagues to turn a deaf ear to all such warnings. Me. Balfouk says that Ministers must have England behind them or resign; but the Liberal newspapers derido the idea of a general election before the Bill has been passed a third time by the House of Commons, and up to the present Mr. Asquith lias not shown any inclination to give way. It remains to _ be seen whether the Unionists will be able to arouse such a feeling of indignation in the country as will compel the Government to consult the electors before the final step is taken. , The rumour still persists that Me. Asquith will retire before the Bill is presented to the Lords for the third and last tinfe, and that he will be succeeded by Sir Edward_ Geey; but neither of these prophecies may be fulfilled. Even if the Prime Minister did relinquish office that would not necessarily interrupt the progress of the Bill, and it is by no means sure that Sin Edward Grey would be his successor. The future is full of uncertainty and anxiety, and the Unionists are not putting any trust in chance happenings, but are determined to fight the Bill to.the very last etnge. ' • tko r1oo», is deaaoßiwJ

in Ireland, Mn._ Bonar Law, on behalf of the Unionist party, has made it quite clear that unless the people are given an opportunity to express their opinion before the Bill passes they will support Ulster through thick and thin. According to the latest English papers, Sir Edward Carson, in a spcech. at Belfast, stated that ho did not believe there would be a general election before the Bill is submitted to the

I Kino, because Mr. Asquith and'his party are bound hand and foot by pledges to Mr. John Redmond, who has them in the hollow of his hand; but it is possible that His Majesty may require an unmistakable assurance before he signs the Bill that he has behind him the great body of his people. However that may be, Sir Edward Carson declared that the men of Ulster must bo ready to 1 keep their Covenant and to take over the government of Ulster themselves upon the day that Home Rule is put upon tho Statute Book. "That might bo an illegal procedure," he added, "but it would be a challenge to tho Government to interfere with it if it dared." These are very ominous words, coming from a statesman, and there

are many indications that Ulstermen are making ready to back them up by deeds when the time for action comes. The Ulster Volunteers are openly training with tho object of forcibly resisting the rule of a Dublin Parliament. Mimic raids and other military movements are being continually practised, while tho people of England are looking on with amazement, hoping . against hope that something will happen at the last moment to prevent tho impending disaster. In such a civil war as that which threatens Ireland who, asks Sir Edward Carson, will be the combatants i And his answer is: "Tho King's forces against the King's most loyal subjects—their Flag, our Flag; their National Anthem, our National Anthem.". Such a conflict would shock the civilised world, and the imagination- refuses seriously to contemplate it. . Never-' theless tho country is steadily drifting towards the precipice, and if tho Government maintains its present attitude it is difficult to see how a national catastrophe can be avoided.