THE NEW PROBLEM IN CHINA.

Dominion, Volume 6, Issue 1844, 2 September 1913, Page 7

THE NEW PROBLEM IN CHINA.

A SIMPLE EXPLANATION

A HANDFUL OP FIGHTERS. The first thing to remember about the recent civil wars in China (according to Mr. Lov;it Fraser) is that the troops actually engaged in conflict probably do not nuiubor much more than a liuudred thousand men. Tho destinies of over tlirco hundred millions of people bang in tho balance, and aro being decided by a comparative handl'ul of soldiers. Tho myriads of China still toil in thoir fields, and tho bulk of them are doubtless cither unaware of or indifferent to the strugglo which is developing. Yet while whole nations aro now in arms in tho Balkans, tho fate of China will almost certainly bo settled by small groups of fighting, men. . , . Tho real issues aro few and Bimplo ■ Tlio first is whether 0110 man shall rula China or many. Tho second is who-' tber China shall -bo controlled by a strong centralised Administration directed from Peking or allowed,to split up into a number of semi-independent provinces. Tho third is. whether the North shall hold tho reins of power-.or lose its grasp over tho Yang-tse Valley and the South. Tho fourth is whether strong, ruthless, practical molftods shall bo exercised to restore unity to Chiliji or the ideals of dreamy doctrinaires: like Sun Yat Son bo allowed to bring the nation to tho blink of ruin. ■ The Traditions of Reverence. The ' earlier Chinese reformers never dreamed of a Republic. They wanted to deal with Manchu corruption and inefficiency, but they wore well awaro that the Chinese race, with its traditions and its instincts of revcrence, required 0110 supreme 'and- exalted head.: President Yuan wont further, for ho tried to save the Manchu dynasty, and/- 1 very nearly succeeded. Ho wished . retain the baby Emperor as "an ein--' blcm of monarchy," and declared less' than two years' ago that a Republic would mean "tho instability of a rampant democracy, of dissension and partition." When he soon afterwards announced that "the establishment of the' Republic had fulfilled his long-cherishedl desires," ho was merely using tho I .lan-| guage of Oriental dissimulation interests of expediency. Nothing is/ more oertain than that he clearly for©-', saw tho troubles ivhich are now at hand, and oven tho temporary cloavago of North and South. lie bowed before, tho storm, and placed himself at tho head of tho. revolutionary-- movement;! but ho bided his time, prepared fori the coming emergency, and tried toj strengthen his' authority. Only his lack of funds has prevented him from 1 1 controling tho present situation. He' will probably survive it yet.- . _ :

The rebellion has nominally origin- j atcd'with a' so'ctet 'society '.which' styleS' i itself "The Blood and Iron Thief Ex-j termination Society." It is the outcome! of the inevitable attempt to resist thoj equally inevitable methods of Yuan kai. tie had to ruloor perish. As 500n.1.; as ho obtained money lie sought to rule., '/'lie provinces of tlio centre and tlifr, ' : south repeatedly flouted' his control. A,, young provincial Governor declined toi recognisi tho mandaton of Peking. Ho J was dismissed, and as lie sought to cs-1 tablish his own independence, YuniU sent troops to subdue him. Some of] the Southern leaders, already alannedl.,'. . by tlio mysterious murder of a promin-l' .cut politician' named Sung Ohiao-jon in.. Shanghai Railway Station—-a - murder! for which tho President vehemently! denies all responsibility—thereupon d(M dared openlv against the head of thai Republic. The.v woro able to to themselves considerable numbers of;', troops, and a fow days ago China lapsed' into internal warfare. The Situation Explained. It is impossible to foresee tho dura-! tion of tho strife. Tho Taepiiig rebellion j in tho 'fifties lasted years, and tho j lowest estimate of the loss of life itf caused puts tho totai at between'fifty 5 .' and sixty millions. Those whose opinion.! > is most to bo trusted believe that Yuan will grapplo .with tho revolt with reasonable promptitude, aind that ho will I ho successful. « The key of the situation is Wuchang, j tho groat city and arsenal opposite! Kankow, on tho Yangste. There General j Li Yuan-hung, Vice-President of tho' Republio, stands firm for Yuan, and his troops are expected to bo faithful. Un-| less Wuchang falls into tho hands of tho rebels, tho Yangtse Valley is not lost t<r the North. Tlio other important scene' of operations is tho Tiehtsin-Pukau rail-1 way, along which General Ituaiig-lisiiig, j sworn foo of tlio President, is march-! ing from the Yangtse towards Poking. ; WIIO Should Great Britain Support?) Who should. Great > Britain supports There can' be no Question that tlio syni-l patliies of Englishmen should be extended to President Yuan Shih-kai, tho/ only mail who has any chance of saving China and keeping it together at this juncture. If ho succceds he will assort his power with inexorablo determination, but it will bo because lie knows his own > country and his own people better than onlookers. Lot 110 one be led astray by tlio assertion that this is a struggia; ' between a free Parliament and a tyrant. Such an implication could, do-( >. ccivb 110 one but credulous English Radicals. Tho men who are leading tho rebellion are tlio President's invotcrato; - foes, and caro 110 more about tho Chin-5" " eso Parliament than they do about St.l Paul's Cathedral. Travesties of parlia-j . mentary government have brought TurJ key and Persia to tho verge or national! death, and in China the Parliament haa been a ludicrous, failure hecauso it is*, unsuitcd to .the .spirit.of. the .country.J This is a light for iwwer, and if 0110' man is to bo tho chief repository oS - power in China it is best that 110 should) be Yuan. J

Those who desiro to inquire further*, into tlio present situation may bo rccoinV mended to read Mr. J. 0. P. Bland's' - remarkable book, "Recent Events and' Present Policies in,-China," a oompre-" Lonsive storehouse of information sued only a few months ago, which has been far too little, regarded. Had itis brilliant analysis of Chinese conditions! and its stem warnings of coining events? been more carefully studied there would} have been fewer delusions about China,, in England to-day. Mr; Bland clonriyV foretold all that is happening now. Hodeclared that any form of.representative! Government in China was "foredoomed' to failure, that a restoration of. soma form of monarchy was the ouly possible means of binding the separatist pro-( vinces together, aaul tlmt a new Son of Heaven —lie inight.be Yuan Sliih-kai or' one. of tlie Mings—would sit onco mora ' on the Dragon Throne. _ t ; English investors in Chinese securvj ties may bo counselled to remain calm-! Their investments will bo in no danger unless tlio South suocccds, which is utilikely. British'trade,, already spriously.. affected bv tho Balkan War, has, however, reason ; to dread a prolongation ovtho rebellion. Tho civil war iii China/ no longer seems remote when .its ror. suits are felt in tho homes of Lancashire. •