The Dominion. MONDAY, APRIL 28, 1913. DIPLOMACY'S UNDERCURRENTS.

Dominion, Volume 6, Issue 1735, 28 April 1913, Page 4

The Dominion. MONDAY, APRIL 28, 1913. DIPLOMACY'S UNDERCURRENTS.

The diplomats of Europe's Great Powers have at tho present time momentous business on hand: vast, farreaching problems to solve: disputes of vital importance to settle, if possible, without recourse to further bloodshed: and, the national interests of their respective countries to protect, and, by all available means, advance. Not for many years has the European situation been so charged with great and dangerous possibilities. It is impossible to tell what schemes, what plots and coun-ter-plots, have been discussed, in Berlin and Vienna more particularly, but also, with no lack of vigour and zeal', and the weighing of every factor, in Paris and St. Petersburg. No difficulty, however, need be experienced in discerning the truth that the undercurrents of diplomacy under the guidance of the diplomats, arc setting in new and unexpected directions. There may be obstacles in, the way to deflect the currents: the objects actually sought to reach may be other than those which now seem apparent ; but the point to b© emphasised is that, to all appearance, the ante bcllttm attitude of the Great Powers of Europe may at any moment undergo a change, one, it may be, both thorough and startling. The more recent utterances of Germany's Imperial Chancellor, Here von .Bbtjlmann Holmvug, accepted as honest and sincere, can scarcely be interpreted otherwise than as bids for the goodwill, and, iE need'hc, the armed support of Great Britain. Several of (lis speeches in tho Reichstag could be quoted in support of Ihis contention. That delivered three weeks ago, it will be recalled, alluded to the 'prevention of a development over the Balkan situation which

might havo led to a violent outbreak. "Europe," said the Chancellor, "will know how to thank Sir Edward Grey, British Foreign Secretary, for his extraordinary devotion and conciliatory spirit in adjusting differences at the Ambassadors' Conference." Merely, a graceful acknowledgment of the British Ministers' hospitality and courteous services, it may be said. But graceful allusions to British Ministers have .not, during recent years, been common occurrences within the German Bciclistag.

Great_ Britain's diplomatic relations with the German Government appear to be at once cordial and correct. Mr. Asquith's two statements in the House of Commons that Great Britain was bound by no ties to assist any European Power, and that, during the deliberations on the Balkans, ''Britain had worked with l-hc single-minded desire to work with Germany," arc both'profoundly significant. Further, there is-the imperial Chancellor s friendly reference to Mr. Churchill's offer on behalf of Britain to suspend shipbuilding for a year. Experts, he explained, saw difficulties in the way, "but," he added,, "tho fact that such a proposal is possible is a great step forward. Germany will wait till England makeft concrete proposals." London, says Mr. J'. Ellis Barker, in the Fortnightly Review, is now the political centre of Europe, as Berlin was at the zenith of BisJiarck, and Paris was before 1870. Wherever tho political centre of Europe may have been during the periods mentioned, Great Britain was still Mistress of the Seas, and able to adjust and maintain the balance of power in_ Europe. That position Great Britain retains, and it is knowledge of this that accounts in large measure for the fresh movements in European diplomacy. Bismarck,- at heart, was animated by -no friendly sentiments towards the British; but he recognised that the friendship rather, it might be said, tho friendly neutrality—of Great Britain was necessary' to Germany for the ends ofi his own European diplomacy. Unscrupulous and' untruthful Bismarck could be; but he was far clearer-visioned than Germany's present-day diplomats, not excluding, tho. Kaiser himself. Bisiiaeck, for example, declared that Great Britain's, friendship would bo impossible if ever Germany developed a naval activity beyond tho obvious needs of her trade, and of her defences against France, or possibiv France and Russia. This -wise policy has for long been abandoned"' by the neo-Bismarckians, tho most moderate of whom, while desiring Britain's friendship, professed to beliqvo that friendship compatible with a German Navy as powerful as that of Great Britain.

• Germany's present position by no means spells success aa the result of her. diplomacy. That diplomacy of lata has been woefully unfortunate. Her i most cherished designs have been'wrecked. Not one of her neishbours is enthusiastically, friendly. Italy is. cool and distant, and remains. a, member of the Triple Alliance mainly for protection from her two allies. Austria has no dosirc to bo dependent upon her old enemy, Prussia, or to admit the superiority of the Hohenzollern over the ancient Houso pf' Hapsburg, j And,' in spite of the Kaiser's warlike rhapsodies about standing by AusI tria in "shining armour' and all tho rest of it, signs'are .not wanting, that little love is lost between the Ballplatz and Wilhelmstrasse, the two dynasties, or the mass of the people in either country. The Kaiser, if he esteems tho Austrian Alliance highly, has original ways of displaying that esteem. At a recent military display near the Austrian border, it may bo remembered, he gave as the watchword for the day, "Koniggratz." Koniggratz is whero the decisive and ghastly battle of Sadowa was fought, forty-seven yoars ago, when tho Austrians were defeated by/ the Prussians. The Kaiser'is a man of many moods. Austria had probably displeased .him in some manner, and he, with callous vindictiycness, reminded- tho Austrians and his "friend" the Emperor, of,an event in their joint histories which continues to call up among a powerful section of the Austrian nation feelings comparable only to the revanche of the French. France is rearranging, and thereby strengthening, her army, asking at-the same time for supplementary naval credits to the extent of £20,000,000. M. Delcasse, the Kaiser's old enemy, whose downfall he brought about by threatening France with war, has gone, as the French Ambassador to St. Petersburg. The freeing of the Balkan States from Turkish dominance has irrevocably stopped Germany's movement towards Macedonia and the plains of Asia Minor. Further, there is the shadow of pan-Slavism lying darkly and menacingly upon Eastern and Central Europe. Circumstances such as these help to explain changes in the under-currcnts of European, especially German, diplomacy.