The Dominion. SATURDAY, FEBRUARY 15, 1913. THE EMPIRE AND THE FUTURE.

Dominion, Volume 6, Issue 1675, 15 February 1913, Page 4

The Dominion. SATURDAY, FEBRUARY 15, 1913. THE EMPIRE AND THE FUTURE.

The public will doubtless-reme'mber that one of the cable messages which came from London during the New Year holidays summarised what was called " a sensational article" by Mb. Frederic Harrison in, the EnglUh Review. With the Review now before us, wo can see that Mr. Harrison was soriously misrepresented: the cablo message presented him as an alarmist muttering vague things as an irrelevant preliminary to a, defor an immediate and. enormous'increase in: the naval and military strength of Britain. Actually, tho article turns out to 'bo a sober and carefully-reasoned examination of the dangerous international situation which has come at last, as/it was bound one day to como, from the impending expulsion of the Ottoman Turk from tho Balkan Peninsula, and the impending substitution of something there for the traditional "status quo.": Mr*. Harrison has, as ho says, been an active politician for quite fifty years—which means that no has seen all tho European developments, and takon no small part in the discussion of them, 'since the rise of Bismarck—and he has always resisted national expansion and ag-. grossion; and "overy kind of warlike, adventure." , Yet, although a 'pacifist by instinct, ho finds that he must say, "deliberately and sorrowfully," that "England, Europe, civilisation f is in imminent: peril from German expansion." All sensiblo men know that the reply to those foolish men who dismiss the German menace by saying that "tho people of Germany" desire peace as ardently as the people of Britain is to be, found in the German.naval programme, tho unmistakable continuity of BismarckV ism in German, policy, tho occasional speeches of ,the Emperor (ho delivered one four, days ago), and, finally, that "the peoplo of Germany"; do not count, excepting as inflammable material, in the calculations of the | ambitious and patriotic statesmen of Germany. Germany must aim at expansion. She has won, as ; Mn.Harrison points but. "compensations" and accessions'thrice before— in 1804, in 1866, and in 1870; "and four or five times since by demanding fresh 'compensations she haß brought Europe to tho brink of war." The development of the Balkans situation has heightened the danger. Russia's existence may depend upon defending pan-Slavism, and in maintaining the freedom of tho Bosphorus and Dardanelles; Germany is pledged to defend Austria, and especially concerned in defending Austria against dominance by the Slav races; France is bound to defend .Russia; England cannot permit the Black Sea, tho Bosphorus, the Hellespont, and tho Aegean coasts to fall into hostile hands. Here, to begin with, is a perilous entanglement of interests/ But, in considering specially the case of Germany, Mr. Harrison points out that 1912 "seems to have effected a vast aggrandisement of tho Slavonic races in their secular strugglo: against the Tcutonjc races. Even a local and temporary triumph of Austria over Servia cannot cancel, tho fact that henceforth tho way south-east to the Black Sea and tho Aegean Sea is barred to the German." Until lately Germany had "a predominant prestige, a working entente, and immense interests from the Upper Danubo, the Oder, and the Elbe, right away to the Marmora, the Aegean, and the upper Euphrates." All theso things havo passed away. Germany, in fact, is hemmed in._ "Thero is no district on earth available for an adequate transmarine empire, or oven colony," and since nothing outside Europe is open to Germany, she must seek "compensation" in Europe itself. And so Mr. Harrison, remembering the ambitions of Germany, and her magnificent organisation for war, industry, and scieuce, warns his countrymen that "tho problem to-day is not Home Defence, but domination in Europe." And tho battle, ho says, has to bo fought on land. What Britain requires is "a fully-trained, fully-equipped expeditionary army to support our friends across the Channel." The concluding portion of Mr. Harrison's paper is a discussion of tho means whereby Britain can obtain this Army, and one of his demands is that a huge war loan must be raised at once. We need not discuss this part of his paper, which raises issues upon which agreement cannot be expected. It is very significant that the British Government has, within the past week, revealed an intention to abandon its blank opposition to tho main principles and contentions of tho National Service League. Wo print-' cd on Wednesday the cabled summary of an important debate in the House of Lords, in the course of which-Lord Herschell, replying pn behalf of tho Government,.said "that the Government "had reguestccl the |

Oommittco of Defence to consider tho matter of the safety of tho country in the event of an expeditionary forco going abroad, and in view of now military factors which had ap : pearcd since 1909." Lord Herschell went on to indicate that tho Government is realising that it must abandon its rigid hostility towards compulsory training. It is not a long step, but it is a notable step, as marking the end of tho passive immobility of tho Liberals, which the Government will take in making a beginning, through the schools, with the furnishing of a supply of what Loud Lansdowne called "half-manufactured soldiers." Wo may leave this notnblo development to the "anti-militarists" to think about, and in tho meantimo cmphasiso the fact that tho British Government has published, through Lord Herschelli, its realisation that an expeditionary force for abroad is a thing to bo considered and arranged for. The Dominions must .take notice of tho debate, and of tho problems raised by Mr. Frederic Harrison, as- factors in the determination of their defence policies. Tho more heavily the burden of maintaining.naval and military efficiency presses on Britain, the greater is tho obligation of the Dominions to address themselves to the provision of local defences and, what will be needed far sooner, in all probability, and much moro urgently than purely local defence; the provision of means to give active assistance to the Mother Country.