NAVAL SUPREMACY.

Dominion, Volume 6, Issue 1672, 12 February 1913, Page 6

NAVAL SUPREMACY.

Admiral von Tirpitz, : in. the German Reichstag, has dclivored a pronouncement Upon tho naval policy of his Government' that may well be said to have marked a first starting point for students and theorists of the involved subject, of naval supremacy. Referring' to a statement made last March by the First Lord of the British Admiralty (Mr. Winston Churchill), when introducing the.British Naval Estimates, he declared that the proporr tion of ten and sixteen between the British and German fleets Would be acceptable for the next years. His Department would not raiso any objection. Following as it did upon a conciliatory remark by Herr von, Jagow ' (Secretary of State for Foreign. Affairs), to the effect that the German Naval Estimates emphasised their-good relations with tlib' Powers, particularly England, the Admiral's statement has been hailed in some quarters as a direct invitation to the rest of Europe to discuss tho question of ultimate disarmament, a theory that finds no favour among those who regard such a proposition as fanciful and impracticable. Whether Germany seriously proposes to acquiesce in such a margin of British naval supremacy as that named by Von Tirpitz, or not, tho fact remains that' a groat many people in Great Britain, very ■rightly concerned at the enormous annual expenditure upon the Navy, will be inspired by the German Admiral's remarks to urge upon tho 1 Imperial Government Some modification of tho British building programme. The adoption of such a suicidal policy would be to ignore tho facts of the European political situation. "Tho only safo settlement," considers the Observer, commenting upon the Reichstag speech, "will be between the Trip!ire. and the Triple Entente, not by England and Germany alone." For our own part, we do not consider that the experience'of the past entitles us to contemplate with any degree of confidence the idea that' international disarmament would offer any guarantee of a permanent peace amongst tho nations. Noithor can any otlous suggestion for; a reduction of anna-

ments be regarded as sound, for the. naval strength (if the Kmpirc is of necessity widely dispersed, while GcrmanVs is concentrated, Germany can afford to slacken the pace. Britain cannot, having regard bo the integrity of her Empire, and tho protection of her trade routes. The present margin of safety, according to Mn. Ciiuncmu,. is on a GO pr cent, basis of naval supremacy, but according to a writer in the London Times, this margin is a depreciating quality. It is curious, but- nevertheless that no two writers on this question agree in their statistics, but The Junes article presents a'statement-of the case which for lucidity of argument and absence of involved statistics commands attention. Taking as his starting point the policy speech delivered by Mr. Ciiuiichill in March last, the writer observes thafj in speaking of the development of a GO per cent, superiority in vessels of the Dreadnought type over the German Navy, the First Lord was "evidently referring to the shins already completed at the time he spoke." He notes that Mr. Churchill went on to say that

the programme from 1012 to 1917 inclusive, of four ships and three ships in alternate years, beßinniug with four in 1912, would give us a little more than 60 per cent superiority over the two ships a year prescribed in the unamended! German Navy Law for the same period. But as a matter of fact, by the time all the ships ordered by his predecessors are completed, or should be completed* in Marth, 19H, the 60 per cent superiority of March, 1912 will not have been maintained unless the Australia and the New Zealand are counted among the British vessels. Tho writer developed, his 'argument thus: v. I March, 1912. ' ' German. British. .■•'.■■' 9"- 15 + 69 per cent ......... '5,4 / Number required ... 14.4 Superiority GO.G per cent. March, 1913. :._'•.■ German. British. .13 . 23 +00 per cent '.. 7.8 Number required ... 20.8 Superiority 62.2 per cent. ■' ', ■ '■'' March, 1914.. ■ German. British, ; ':,:'■ •■' -. 21 . . + GO per cent......... 12.0 Number required ... 33.G : Superiority ...„„ 55.4 (With two Doainion ships inoluded.) . flhrch, 1915. . '', " German. British. .-.-• 23 36. +' 60 per cent.....„..' 13.8 . Number required ... 36.8 Superiority 59.2 (Willi Dominion ships included.) ; . March, 1916. German, British, '■■ 25- 39 . +60 per cent 15 ' Number'required .'.. "40 5uperi0rity..,.,..,....', 59' (With Dominion vessels included.) ;. "To fulfil the requirements of the 60 per cent, standard;" concludes tho writer, "oven with the.Dominion vessels, it iB necessary that wc should lay down ' one more vessel next year than Mil. Churchill. has : promised." If this : argument' be sound—and the writer has employed the simplest of arithmetical formulae—then Germany's equanimity is explained. /• The • awakening activity of the Dominions villimprcss Germany; and may bring; homo to the German people and Government .tho , magnitude ,of the work of surpassing Britain's naval strength. But the Dominions must sec to it that "the Empire" as a military Power becomes a'real thing without delay, "