The Dominion. MONDAY, JANUARY 20, 1913. SCIENCE AND THE WEATHER.

Dominion, Volume 6, Issue 1652, 20 January 1913, Page 6

The Dominion. MONDAY, JANUARY 20, 1913. SCIENCE AND THE WEATHER.

When a scientist of standing adventures into the speculative field of meteorology, and presents, as a result of his investigations, what he claims to be a permanent basis for' arriving at a working approximation I of the kind of wobthcr likely to be experienced in futuro seasons, he is , entitled to be heard by the general body of public opinion. With the gradual obliteration of that enterprising tohunga of an earlier period —the weather prophet—and the serious attention which has in later years been given by scientific men to the subject, meteorology. IB beginning to assume, if it has not already assumed, tho dignity of an exact science, presenting to the investi--8, a^0 . r , ■? series of problems for elucidation by ■ simple deduction from known facts and circumstances, discoverable by an intelligent system of observations and rcoords. Proceeding upon this basis, tho science .of meteorology has made wonderful progress, and that it is capable of rendering practical service of the utmost value to the oonf munity has already been demonstrated.

Professor ' Douglas Archibald, formerly of the University of Calcutta,, has for tho past twelve years been supplying _ three-day period forecasts of British weather for the principal newspapers of the United Kingdom. He made a study of mc~ • teorology in India, and in 1876 discovered laws relating to the winter and summer rainfall in Northern India. Three years prior to its ap- • pearanoe he: predicted the great i drought which devastated India during 1896-1900, and he'now comes forward with a prediction that a severe drought will' afflict Australia, about 1917, and will probably be most acute between 1920' and 1924, continuing more or less till 1927. According to a telegraphed .interview, which was published on Saturday, he ■ bases this opinion on the data collected by\ Professor Bruckner; whose observations and calculations ,he calls "facts" and not "theories." ; . Bruckner's .investigations, covering, a period of meteorological history extending over 200 years, with, notea in temperatures as iar back 'as the year 1100, led him to the theory of alternate cycles of wet and dry weather in waves of 35 years' duration each. 'Professor Archibald, who has a reputation to sustain, claims tho discovery of a method of weather deduction whereby the Bruckner waves, in comparison with the eleven-year waves or oscillations of sun-spots, give the result, and it was by this method, ho states, that he was able to predict correctly the' gr ( eat Indian famine. The Bruckner wave, or oscillation, being longer and t greater than that of the sun-spots, exercises tho dominating 'influence in regard to_ weather. Last year, as_ other scientists have: already/ pointed out, the sun-spot' wave was at its' minimum,- which meant the driest of'leather if it had to bo considered alone; but it so happened, Professor Archibald indicates, that' the Bruckner wave was at its maximum and dominated • the sun-spot wave, bringing in wet weather. This wet weather, however, was counteracted to somo extent by tho minimum of tho sun-spot oscillation, thus leading to temporary local droughts. The' sun-spot Oscillation has now begun to climb to its maximum, and tho Bruckner wave, more slowly, will gradually descend to its minimum. The Bun-rspot oscillation will have reached its maximum in 1915, when a very wet season will bo experienced, but' two years aftor that —in 1917—the oscillation.will revert to the minimum, as also will the Bruckner wave, and will begin a general drought. This is, a very alarming prediction, whioh, if. fulfilled, will'.certainly affect New Zealand'in various ways. It is possible, of course, that Professor Archibald, elated ,by the accuracy of his Indian forecast, may havo ventured out of his dopth. This is tho view of the Commonwealth Meteorologist, Mb, Hunt, who discounts tho prediction, contending that no meteorologist could safely base his forecast on the, Bruckner waves. .> There is. ■ however, sufficient of the element oi speculation remaining in the field of moteorology to justify a suspension of judgment on that , point, for the passing of the. years will determine it absolutely within the decade.