THE ISTHMIAN CANAL.

Dominion, Volume 6, Issue 1642, 8 January 1913, Page 4

THE ISTHMIAN CANAL.

PANAMA VISITED. COMMERCE AND TRADE. (By G. H. Scales.) ■■•■'■ IV. Apart altogether froin tho part it will piny in the history of nations,'the opening, for practical purposes, of tho Panama Canal and the then immediate future yvorking of it will-be a period of immensa interest to. most people /as well as undoubtedly one of no, small anxiety to those more particularly concerned in 'iti constmction and welfare.. The locks themselves ffill 'doubtless be a factor in this feeling: the mere fact of such an enormous weight of concreto and metal resting on a base consisting of such a weak formation must leave room for some ele-' ment of doubt ns to what effect the filling of the locks may have when the weight of some thousands of tons of yvater is added. IA Mass of "Ifs." The date for the 'official opening is January 1/ 1915, but it has been anticipated for 6ome time that the canal, yvould be ready for use as a waterway 'during 1913, by which timo the entire cost to the United States will be about ,£80,000,000. It is difficult to form even tho vaguest idea the effect this huge yvork will have on tho commerce of the world: it is a problem full of tho; most complex intricacies possible to imagine: the subject is a mass of "ifs," and it is difficult to see even any approach to it, it is like a tangled knot m' a,skein of silk. • ;Therte,is, of course, one fact in connection with it that cannot bo disputed, i.e., the changes produced in the relative posir tions, geographically speaking, between many ports of many countries. This does not necessarily involve'any drastio change in the ihoidence of commerce, time dominates distance,- and "cost" time. If this hypothesis is sound,, it will have to bo shoyvn that owing to the existence of the canal the saving in distance will so curtail the: cost'as 'to bring about a change i in ; the commercial, relations' betw;ecn the peoples affected. Four Routes Affected. Taking" a congeries of ports ■ oh , the North' Atlantic 6ea-board'as representing one common terminal, it may be said that four great trade routes will.be primarily affected having for their respective terminals:— ■, .;''■■ '.' (1) The North Pacific Sea-board of America. , . ..-,--. (2)' The. South Pacific' Sea-board oi!- , America. .; : : ' . : - ' (3) f/hat is.commonly spoken of as .'the "Far East."- -: . ... -..-.■ , - ■' ■'(. ~ ". ~.-.'■■' Whilst for the purposes of defining ih a general sense certain trade routes it may be both convenient and proper to refer to tho North Atlantic as a terminal, it will be impossible, ivlicn discussing each of such routes, to assume that there isone "common" terminal in the North Atlantic. For the purpose in view, it is imperative that some process ; of disintegration or individuality be applied to the North Atlantic. It will, however, probably bo.sufficient if it is divided into two seaboards, the- American and the European, and, for convenience, these muy be referred to as being, represented by Neyv. York and .Liverpool, respectively. ; A changein the f incidence of commerce may bo brought nbout by cither or both of two factors (a) a change of route betyvcen the tivo terminal ports, .'(b)'V a change .in either of :the two terminals themselves. Noyv, the opening of'the .Canal is going,'to pave, the yvay, as it yvere, to changlis of both.:classes. It is going to offer at shorter route than now exists between 'existing . terminal points in several;trades, and. it, is also going to bring a set of fresh ports, into such a position' other ports ns to make thorn so much .nearer >han the present .Atlantic terminal as to warrant the suggestion that from the "distance" point of vieyv they yvould necessarily-supplant as terminals tho existing ports occupying . that-, position;' ,'. '';. : -', > -;.'..',;•'; Transport of Grain.,; - -~,'; u To illustrate what has been said: , Practically the whole of the-wheat sent to Europe from, tli Western States of North: America Is now:railed to the Big Lakes then taken by lake steamers to the seaboard, thence across the Atlantic. It is asserted by those who should-know, that it ivill; be ;more economical to rail tho yvheat to a Pacific port (Seattle, Portland, or -Vancouver) and shijv it there direct (via Canal) to Europe. -Here there is a change of route, but no change in trade' as; betyveon the terminals, though the lake' traffic yvould suffer whilst >the Tacilio ports, would gain. .-'.; ■'.-, ' The relative,- distances .between Van-/ couver.and the Atlantic ports are shown by" each; route. The distance from San Francisco is, about 800 miles: less than from; Vancouver: :.'.-; -"'■-■-■: ■'-■■.. , f ,!•-'-. ■'•:■'■■■-■} ■■To 1 :"-' .' , ' -'From .."■'. Now York. Vancouver via: Magellan 14,450 ,14,030 Vancouver via .Panama 8.650 .: 6,030 Separated .from. Central Europe by the longest ocean voyage in the world, it is not improbable; the rapid rail, transit connecting tho Pacifio with the Atlantic has given a very, substantial share of tho trade, of the -. West. Coast ; of.-. North America to the North 'American eastern sea-board, but yvith the reduction of some 5000 miles of ocean travel to Europe, material changes may take place, especially when it is borne in mind that the principal ports -of call may. be links in the chain extencjng via Panama Canal from Europe. to .I'rlr - East. The .North Pacific trade may be said to consist mainly'of the export of lumber and grain. The sailing ship will doubtless fight for tinuation of'its share of tho former and although the authorities (those most interested) assert, with confidence that a largo share of the grain trade to Europe will be shipped through the Canal, it niust.be remember that North Atcerica is fairly .riddled with railroads, and grain may be'assumed, to .be-their greatest individual source of'revenue. This trade is one which entails upon the railroads a large sum of capital: expended in roll-ing-stock, lying idle for many months each ■ year, : and any shortening of the haulage, whilst it may give tho wheatgrowers mora rapid transit, will ; reduce the gross earnings. . A Vast Harvest.' i The annual production of grain, already reaching millions of tons,'in the Canadian West, is|.said to be doubling itself every five years. Practically the whole of this vast trade has hitherto gono "east" by rail. There are, however, now tyvo or three fresh "roads", being piit through the "Rockies" onto tho Pacific Coast, and an anticipated reduction in railwav charges of about 7s. per ton has lately been freely discussed. Views have also been expressed that the steam freight to Liverpool, via Panama, will not exceed 20s. per ton as against 275. 6d., which has been the average rate, via the Horn, for some years, arid that, with these concessions, the total charges on yvheat from Alberta and.the western district of Saskatchewan will be somewhat less than they are .by the present route. If the change from the Eastern to the Western seaboard appeals to the railroads, buyers of "town and sulrurbah lands at the recent high figures'-ruling,in Vancouver and Victoria may have''no reason to regret theirpurchases, and' Vancouver may develop into one of the largest wheat ports in the yvorld, whilst the Panama' Canal may claim to bo responsible for the establishment'of what, may bo called an entirely now trade route,-but whether either or both of tho above concessions will be realised is,' of course, yet to be;oscertamcd, and it must be borne in mind .that the journey, via Panama, yvill probably occupy from 40 to 45 days, as against 25 by theiprosent route. Tho difference in tho relativo positions of the North Atlantic nnd tho European ports yvith those on the West Coast, of South America as the result of the opening of tho Canal wilt be enormous, and it may be considered practically certain that tho trade route from the Pacific to the Atlantic will be charged,' and although distnuce will not ho nllowed to absolutely control the position, the advantages gained in this direction by the Atlantic ports' of the United States are so great that it may reasonably bo expected tho utmost will bo done to get iho full measure of benefit therefrom, There is little room for doubt that ninny vessels now making Valparaiso orCallao their northern terminal (after comini; south through Magellan SlraiM will cither make a round voyage (passing through the Canal one way), or olao re.verse the present order tad maleoue of. the.

ports named their southern terminal after passing through tho Canal.( A round trip, say, from Antyverp to the nitrato ports of South America is,roughly, 20,000 aniles, via Magellan,' yvhereas, by Panama, it will only bo. about 12,000, whilst taking New* fork • as a terminal instead of Antwerp, tho distanco, yvhich via Magellan is now about 19,000 miles, yvill not exceed 7000 miles via Panama. Sailing ships still have a considerable share of this trade, and may bo expected to make'a grim fight for a prolonged existence, but it is difficult to see yvith the. immense changes in distance, how- the present conduct of this trade can continue. ... Panama and Suez. ; Regarding the Par Eastern trade, it is not easy to see in .what yvay the Panama Canal yvill offer any advantages to Eur n.<. ns a trado route over that via Suez, distance, intermediate ports of cull, and coal facilities offer greater advantagts in tuo old than the noyv route. There are, however,, ono or tyvo cargo lines running from' Europo through the Suez Canal to the Far East, yvhich make Vancouver their terminal port, and it may, bo found either necessary ; or advantageous to extend their voyage to Europo through Panama, and to run also return service via .Panama Canal to tho East, thence through the Suez Canal to Europe.' As a fast route.for passenger'and mail services, it offers absolutely no attractions'. The relative position of Liverpool aad Neyv York yvith Yokohama will, be completely reversed as will be seen from the folloyving table:— . -^ To-', ' To Liverpool. N. York. Yokohama via Suez ... 12,135 ; ' 14,00!) Yokohama via Panama 13,570. 10,770 Shanghai via Suez ... 10,933 12,801 Shanghai via Panama 13,084 11,972 ■ The Suez distances are via usual mail steamer ports' of call; Panama distances are via 'Frisco, Honolulu; nnd Yokohama j Korean and other Japanese ports will be at about equal distances from Liverpool via Suez and New York via Panama. There is a possibility, should the present Canal Tolls Bill remain in foroe, of Honolulu becoming a distributing centre of tho United States manufactures for the Pacific as United States'vessels from United States ports in the Atlantic trading to Honolulu, yvould be free of canal dues. There are already- three lines of passenger steamers running regular services between San Francisco and Japan via Honolulu, viz., the Pacific Mail S.S. Co., the Toyo Kisen Kaisha, and. the HamburgAniericaiij the.first-named being a United States Company. These, of course,'might extend on tho lines suggested for tho cargo boats, but it is certainly questionable yvhether as - a, passenger servico the extension yvould appeal to the travelling public, and as a. mail service it yvould certainly bo useless. , '. ;.'> ;, ' ■ Australian Trade, r \"" ';.-' Regarding' Australia the.following table yvill-'show ,at a glance tho approximate distances via both the Suez and Panama Canals to Melbourne and Sydney,.' from Loudon arid Neyv York respectively:— • :''.'■'•' ' 'i.i" .To, : To' . London. Noyv York. Sydney via Suez ......!.. 12,250 14,050 Sydney via Panama and ''.■'.•' ~ Tahiti'.... 12,050 9,850 Melbourhe via Suez ... 11,750 13,550 Melbourne via Panama" 13,05,0 10,250 :'.*lOQ miles-more if calling at Sydney. It yvill be observed that w'hilst owing to the Suez Canal-London is placed in a very favourable position as compared with New York, that not only is Panama no advantage whatever to London, but that the'relative position of New York ami London are completely reversed. The ports of Northern Europo which have hitherto enjoyed the same advantages "as London yvill be now placed at the same disadvantage; .whilst", tho Mediterranean and .Adriatic ports will find, the advantage of their positions reduced to a'negligible* quantity, Although New York yvill bo some thousands of miles nearer Australia than it is at present and in,the neigh: bourhood. of, 2000 miles nearer than London, by tho Panama Canal, there would not appear to. be any. reason ,'tb- suppose that;the lines now using tho.;Suez-Canal would make any.change iri. their route. There.are lines of"cargo, and' passenger ; steamers .trading betw-ccn „ London; - and Australia-via this. Cape; but as'(lie Suez .■route apparently. fails' to iattract tjiem,' it may" bo' reasonable' to infer that it is unlikely the Panama route will succeed in so doing. '" '.'•'.'.. -.'■As to whether any radical change in her trade. relations with' the "United Ki D "- dom may be brought about, it must bo remembered that the bulk of her output of wool, and probably wheat, is sold in Australia, and its destination is'controlled'' by outside buyers, and that, as regards imports, she has for many years' supported regular sailings'of steamers loaded on the Atlantic seaboard .of tho. United States, : nnd whether those; interested in the maintenance of the": trade", oyviug' to the opening of the Panama Canal; will be enabled,to increase and extend their operations is a question :•' that can'only bo answered in the future.' If the Canal isi-to benefit the United States in her trade yvith Australasia at .the expense of Great' Britain, it is'not unlikely it will bo ih'the'direction indicated; the development may hot be .rapid, but if there.are no disadvantages to set; against the advantage offored by a saving.of 'about onefourth of the distance, it may be reasonably certain that development will'.take place, though possibly /slowly'.and insidiously. ; -i '.- '..' ; '•.' New Zealand and the Cenaj. .'. So far as.New Zealand is concerned, the following table indicates the change in the. relative positions as between Welling- , ton with London and New York respectively:—, ~-.■'■ ■'■ "• . '. ■ Wellington.i : .' "London. Via, Cape ............... 13,182 13,825 Via Horn .............:.. 12,215 : 11,700 Via Tahiti, and-.. • . Panama' .11,700 . 8,900Round trip. . . - Via' Horn and Capo 25,397 25,525 . Via' 1 Tahiti and ■; '-.-, ■'.'.'< Panama .'.. 23.400 ~; 17,800 It will bo seen that the Panama route will reduce-the 'distance'on the preserit route by about 2000 miles, or equal to nea*rly seven days in time oh' the ''round voyage"' to London, whilst, on n round .voyage between New -York 'and Neyv Zealand, the distance will: bo about 7500 miles less than betyyeen-tho United Kingdom and New Zealand, via the Cape and the Horn, equal to a saving in time of about twenty-five days. Without taking other matters into consideration there: is, prima facie,, sufficient reason for suggesting the .possibility of a change in route, and it will hardly, bo denied that the. great saving iri distanco may be a faotor in any inducement offered in an attffmpt to bring about a change in the trade rolations of 'Neiv Zealand. ', A saving of seven days on the round voyage is a substantial advantage, but many other circumstances must needs be taken into consideration before a change of route can safely, be decided upon, not tho least important of which would bo the canal chorees, the, incans of obtaining and the cost of coal, and tho gain or losa of any intermediate trade. Whilst on tho basis of distance only there would bo a saving of about seven days, this, on.the -showing of the 1.C.C., would .bo reduced to six days oiving to the transit each way through the cannl taking tyvelve hours. The- intermediate trade between New Zealand and Monte Video and Rio, and between these two places and England, besides the Cape and the. Tasmanian trade, yvould.all have to "go by the board." The canar charges on the largo steamers cm'ployed in this trade would probably bo in the neighbourhood■'of ;.£IOOO to i! 4500 for tho round voyage. On the other hand* there would be a saving of six days' timo and a corresponding reduction ,iu- the cori- ' sumption of coal. There would also be a material saving in the "cost" of coal on tho homeward, voyage, though on the outyvord voyage there yyould not bo much change in' this direction. There yvould also ■■ probably bo some slight increase in freight earnings, owing to less space being required for coiil, tho reason lor this being that the longest non-stop run, i.e., from tho ■ West Indies to London, yvould bo sonic 2000 miles shorter than from Wellington to Monte Video. ■ _, - Tho' maximum saving that could reasonably bo hoped for on the points refcr- . rod to would probably be, however, far below the cannl expenses, nnd unless tho Panama routo_ o/l'cred a substantial increase in earnings from an intermediate trade between yvay-ports or ensured a material increase of saloon passengers, it is difficult to S3O in what direction it will ■bo able to offer sufficient inducement for any chuivgo from the present route. For a time, doubtless, Panama would take some of our dairy and meat products, but tho population b small, and although the i j wkohj of tho immediate district it likely

to receive a very considerable increase in the? population, it is doubtful whether any very largo consumption ( of our products would follow, Tho 'high cool lands of Colombia, millions,and millions of acres, situate within 36 hours' steam, will not bo allowed to remain idle, and there are signs that oven now development in pastoral directions hnvo commenced. The altitude, from COOOft to 8000 ft., fives a delightful and healthy climate, and land is cheap, land that is now ready and waiting for the cattle beast to feed on. There aro also possibilities of a similar trade in our products with somo of tho Wost Indies, but tho white population is small, and likely to remain so, and the natives are not a meat-eating raco. Trade En Route. : ' Tho outside trade relations of New Zealand are much more exclusively English than either those of Australia or Canada, and notwithstanding the disparity in distance as between Now York and the.United Kingdom, it is extremely difficult to soo in whatwwaty t any serious upheaval of present conditions can be looked for or brought about. Still, if it is wished to retain these relations with the Old Country, it is not wise to shut one's eyes to what is going on/in connection with certain elements that'are most important constituent ports of the trade, and any change in which may lead to changes in tho whole. .';•'■ Tho United States, of America some twenty years ago was the lnigost supplier of fresh ■ meat to the United Kingdom j tb-day"it cannot grow enough to feed its own people, and although it cannot be said there is a good market for New Zealand mutton in tho States, the "thin end of tho wedge" has been driven in, and if the conditions relating to supply and demand are to be continued in the future, it is not difficult to imngino New Zealand steamers passing through the canal to .either Now Orleans or New York, and there discharging their refrigerating chambors. The interests obtained by the United States in South American meat industries, and' those known, though possibly not acknowledged, in Australia, are surely.'a sufficient reason for anticipating the possible fulfilment of T.'hat itf suggested, and a fact that should not bo lost eight of 1 in this connection, is that a largo proportion of tonnage engaged in tho Australian and, in tho New Zealand trades, although, still flying the ''Union Jack,"'is the-ob-soluto- property of certain United States corporations, and may at any moment, owing' to the passing of tho Panama Tolls Bill, be placed upon the American Register of Shipping, the f'Stars and Stripes" supplanting the "Union Jack." Are not these things worth thinking of?