A REVIEW OF 1912.

Dominion, Volume 6, Issue 1634, 28 December 1912, Page 3

A REVIEW OF 1912.

I|INANCB AND COMMERCE.

BEGINNING op a boom

OUTLOOK FOR 1913.

EXTREME PROSPERITY

THE MONEY MARKET,

• Tho money markets of Europe experienced; unusual stringency, especially ' towards the closo of the year, owing to the outbreak- of war : in the Balkans. Tho tension, is by no means-Over yet, but notwithstanding this the rates . for- money, though higher, were not bo high as in 190.7,. the year of . the American .financial orisie: -'During the year now_closing there "were -five"variations of-the"Bank of England .minimum ; discount-'rate, against four ohanges in 1911. The movements of the {rate .. during the year are eho.wn below:—'- ' January 1 4 per cent. ..iFebruary 8 per cent. ■ May 9 P« cent : ' .August -29 4. percent. October-17 ...'5 percent. The duration of each rate during theyear was as follows:— , • 3 . per cent. for. • ...... 112 days • per cent, for . - 91 days 4 per oent. for 88 days j . . 5. ..-per cent.'for 75 days The average rate for the year works out at £3 159. 8i per cent., and compared with previous years shows as under;— . , . .£ e. d. . ! Average in 1912 3 15 8J per cent. Average in 1911 J • ,5 per cen . Average in 1910 8 11 6 per cent. Average in 1909 3 2 0 per cent. Average in ,1908., 3 0 3 per cent. Average in 1907 ......... 4 18.:;.6 ; per cent.,- ; /Three years, ,1910-12 ... 3 6-9 per cent. Five years, 1908-12 ... 3 8; ±i per cent, Ten years, 1903-12 " .... 313 8 per cent, The average,rate of 1912 was.higherthan in : any year since 1907, and it was higher than the average for threo,' fije,- and ten years. Money was . comparatively dear during the year, and r , there is little, hope of it being any cheaper.in 1913.',' - '• The Bank of France,rate, was:reduced from 3} to 3 per cent, on -January 31, 1908, and continued at the latter until September 21,-, 19U.-.wien j :itwaa raised to per cent. On May 17, ,1912, it was reduced to 3 per cent.; on October 17 it was raised to 3$ per cent.; and on October 30 to 4 per cent. . ' It appears that the advance m the rate of discount of. tho Bank of 1 ranee, caused much comment in financial circles in London.- The French national institution prides itself upon its low rato of discount, and only twice since January, 1900, has the limit of 4 per cent, been reached. -. Ine previous occasion was in 1907, at the -timo of the American crisis, and prior -to that • the Boer war in 1899 saw a 4j per cent, rate' established-after nine years of 3 per cent, or under. In former periods of high discount rates at the Bank of France the Bank of England has b.een charging G per cent, or over, as compared with 5 per cent, to-day. Two reasons have, been given for, the present high official. money rate in> Paris, of which.,theJ'first: is tho liberal, assistance which the, Bank of France extended to the Paris markets dunng the recent slump in securities. The total ot bills discounted, according to the return of November 2, showed an increase ot £13,564,000 on tho week, whilst the note circulation expanded by £10,682,000, to the enormous totaloorf r £226,205,000, against which there was: a slight, decrease, to £129,049,000, in the gold com and bullion held. The second reason or surmise is that owing to its close connection with.the Government, the - Bank. of, France is talnng precautions ■ in. view, ?i 0f,... possible inter-. national complications. The Bank of, France, it is stated, holds the opinion that the solution ot jthe.proMem how w tain the , wi™ money market,. which can apply coercion to diplomatists, which they cannot resist. There is-no doubt considerable truth, in this contention, more especially in times of world-wide activity of trade such as prevails at present. • The Imperial Bank of Germany's rate 'was raised on September 19, 1911, from .4 to 5 per cent.; on June 11,' 1912, it was reduced to 41 per cent., on October 24 it was raised'to 5 per oent./ and-on November 14 it was further raised to 6 per cent. The recent advance of the Germanbank rate to G per cent, marks the highest level since 1908. This -upward movement is not exactly due to the weak position of the H-eichsba-nk, but Tather to the inevitable results if the laws of economics I .were allowed 'to act, For some time past tho Berlin exohange on London has been well above gold point, which makes it more profitable to remit-, in the, form of gold than in bills. The Keichsbank, however; like the Bank of France, is most reluctant to part with gold, and any - attempt to export the metal is resolutely discouraged. Tho means adopted was to raise'the official value of money, thus attracting credit to Berlin if possible, and moving the exchange more favourably to that centre. • These- conditions are the result of a long period of overtrading by Germany, the effects of which were | not felt until loans\made to .Germany by other nations were SvithdrSwn. For example, France called in largo sums during tho crisis regarding Morocco, while nothing has oca'irred since to make a renewal of the Itfftna attractive.. Germany ' for years past has been trading on borrowed money, and'is suffering the penalty. 7 According to a writer in "Vie Financiere/" Germany is living beyond her means, and has created a mass of debt, altogether upwards of £1,200,000,000,. winch may cause an overwhelming crisis-in German finanoe before very long. No doubt the trade an"d manufactures of the country are wonderfully active, but its industries are buoyed up too much by credit. The banks are so absolutely involv«d with industrial concerns that when the latter demand more capital they can compel tho financial institutions to find it. Tho creation of new securities during the current year in Germany has been embarrassingly large, but the Empire possesses many , resources,' and should, be able to surmount the threatened difficulties, provided nothing occurs outside to bring on a crisis.

THE DEMAND FOR CAPITAL.

The demand for capital on the London market ■ has btoi fairly largo, though not, 60 large as in 1910. A check was imposed upon borrowers by. the high rates ruling, and also by the repeated failure of Government loans. According to the 'figures ■ furnished by the "Economist" (London), the capital applications to October 7 of this year and corresponding dates in previous years, were as under:'1912 ....: 180,300,009 1911 133,977,644 1910 226,305,338 1909 153,921,126 1908 152,124,409 1907 110,743,346 190G i 102,713.761

For the whole' of 1911 the total was .£191,759,352, so that it 19 apparent that 1912 will exhibit a very substantial inAustralian Government loans floated in London during the year have all beer, failures, the.t is. to say, the underwriters were forced to subscribe for the major portion of the several issues. The following were issued:— February 15—West Australian loan for ,£1,000,000, bearing interest at 3} per ceht., issue price .£99, but allowing for certain concessions, the real {.rice was 13s. 6d. less. Of this issue the underwriters were left with 74 per cent. June 9.—New Zealand loan for 000 in two-year bonds, bearing interest at 3$ per cent., issue prico .£99. The yield to the investor ' was estimated at .£4 Os. Bd. per cent., but it cost the New Zealand Government considerably more. The loan was a failure, notwithstanding its attractive character, for the underwriters had to take up 87 per cent, of the issuo. This loan created .a great deal of interest in London financial circles. "The Times," in commenting on the matter, stated that the market did not like the issuo, not only because the amount was inconveniently large, but because the yield was so high as to make existing colonial securities look dear. No doubt .the terms of this loan more nearly represent the facts as to the credit of New Zealand, and sonio other, countries than the ideas hitherto prevailing in official circles. The failure of the New Zealand loan oaused Imperial Consols to fall 225. Gd. in a few days, owinsto holders (mainly underwriters) . selling

Consols to meet the calls on tho New Zealand $crip. July U.—Queensland loan of J32,(K)0,000, bearing interest at 3J per cent, issued at JBSB. Tho underwriters were forced to take up 90 per cent, of this issue, and tho scrip was quoted ftfc a discount of lj. October 20.—New South. Wales loan of £1,500,000, bearing interest at i per oent. Prior to tliis, the Government made inquiries on the Continent, and particularly in Paris, as to the probability of successfully floating a . debenture loan, and it was semi-officially announced that three millions sterling was available at 4 per cent. The outbreak of hostilities. in the Balkans prevented th<se negotiations coming to a head, and the Government' was forced on to the London market. This issue was a failure like the others, for although tho bonds were for ten years, the underwriters were left with 52 per cent, of the issue. November s.—Quensland loan of £2,000,000, bearing interest at i per cent., i6sue price £99. This loan was intended to cover a 4 per cent, loan for £1,500,000 maturing at the end of the. year. ' The public subscribed for 80 per oent., the underwriters were thus left with only 20 per cent., which, under the oircumstances, was satisfactory.

December 6.—West Australian loan for £1,000,000, bearing interest at i per cent., issue price £99. Although the price was the same as the earlier issue, the interest was ss. more per cent. However, the underwriters were left with 43 per cent, of the issue.

December. 18.—The New South Wales Government was reported to be negotiating for a loan of £3,000,000 at 4 per cent, with the issue price fiied at 99J. The underwriters had to take up 85 per cent, of' the loan, and this issue was also a failure. The flotations of State and corporation loans have been carried on to a larger extent than usual in Australia, and this has helped to accentuate. the monetary stringency. The following issues were made:— Victoria,' £1,500,000, at 8i per cent. West Australia. £500,000 at 4 per cent. New South Wales, funded etock at 4 per rant. City of Sydney, £500,000, at 4 per cent.. West; Australia, £350,000, at . 4 per cent. Queensland, 4.per.cent. Treasury Bills. Metropolitan Board of Works, 4 per cent. • debentures for £120,000. _ . There were no public flotations in New Zealand.. ' . GILT-EDGED SECURITIES. It was in 1910 that Imperial Consols began their persistent downward career, and when they touched £78 12s. 6d. there was consternation, and financial circles were much disturbed. In 1911 the quotation dropped to as low as £76 155., but there was a recovery, and towards the end of last year the price stood at or near £78 10s. Lord St. Aldwyn, presiding at a meeting of the London Joint Stock Bank on' January 26 this year, stated that nine of the largest London banks hai written off £6,283,000 for depreciation of gilt-edged securities, since 1903. During this year, or, to be more precise, during tho second half of this year, Imperial Consols registered a new low level, for, on October 14, when the financial panic following the outbreak of hostilities in the Balkans was at its height, the price went down to. £72.105. At the last half-yearly meeting of shareholders of the Bank of. New Zealand, Mr. Alex. Macintosh referred-to Consols as a speculative stock in the question he submitted to the chairman, and many peoplethought the reference absurd, but from tie violent movements that have taken place in/the stock recently such a reference appears fully -warranted. The following table will give an \idea of the fluctuations this year:— .. 1912.: ' £ s. d. January 4 11 5 0 February 14 78 10 0 , May 24 11 '2. G June 20 7G 0 0 July 5 76 2 6 July 16 7o 0 0 July 19 - 1 . 74 2 6 July 25 73 1- G August 13 14 15 1 , .August 21.. :. 7515' 0 i (September 18-;*-.; .. ;i 74 '2 8'Octolir. 4 74 0 0 October 14' — 72 0 0 November 1 ............... '3 15 0 November 15 75 0 0 December 2 '5 12 December 15. 74 6 6 . The highest price during the year was £,1% 10s., and the lowest £72, and a variation df £6 10s. in a security supposed to be gilt-edged is, to say.-, the least,of it, very remarkable. The price for the year was approximately £75, and at this price the yield to the .investor is £3 Gs. Bd. per cent. - -.- . All gilt-edged securities have eufiered because they have been recently createa far more rapidly than could be digested by the public. In the table appended the quotations for Government securities in December, 1911, and those ruling now, are compared:— • _

Deo. Deo. 13 . 1911. 1912., FaU- , £ S .d. £e. d. £s. d. 105 0 0 102 *0 0 I'OO aSI'-HB. TWS"- ™ 10 0 91 0 0 " 710 0 811 1 !lV d JJ ■ ijfW 96 10 0 91 0 0 510 0 86100 eo 00. mo P' o, tj, ; ' qc ion 91v 0 0 610 0 3 oo'w'l 86 0 0 84 0 0 2 0 0 J, s',?' Xb 'S6lO 0 91 0 0 • 610 TM.' 85 0 0 83 00. 2 0.0 laken on'lhe whole, gilt-edged eecunties have been bad investments.

AUSTRALASIAN .FINANCE.

The demands on the banks during 1911 were exceptionally heavy, and tllis year the banks have seen fit to restrict advances, that is'to say, all elapses of borrowers have not been accommodated, ifce banks, however, have given fair and generous assistance to traders and manutacturers In Now Zealand a steady advance in the lending rates was to to noted. A drought of slight duration affected parts of the Commonwealth, and it caine at a time to do enormous damage. The Australian banks acted with 'caution, and money became dealer, especially in Sydney. It was thoughthere that money was being drattn _from JNew, Zealand to assist New South Wales, but this was not altogether a fair view, for tho conditions here at times were stringent. Deposits showed a distinct tendency to decrease, ' while bank adYanoes in.creased, and this , adverse movement may be said to be' due to the adverse showing of our commerce. According to the banking returns for the whole of Australasia for the September quarter, m comparison with the figures for the corresponding quarter of 1911, the deposits and advances were as. under I— DEPOSITS. Sept., 19U. Sept., 1912. £ £ Victoria 45,504547 46,132,011 New South Wales 54,992,807 50>091,349 Queensland 19,806,609 20,488,802 South Australia.. 10,679,511 Western Australia 7,247,290 ?' Tasmania 3,822,812- i,229,025 Commonwealth .. 142,053,576 144,649,859 New Zealand ... 27,075,883 25,181.291 Total 169,129,459 ' 169,831,150 The not increase in the total during the twelve months, is." J8501.691, Victoria showing an increase of New South Wales an increase of Queensland an increase of and Tasmania an increase of while Western Australia shows a decrease of .£727,349, and New Zealand a decrease of ,£1,894,592. , ADVANCES. ■ Sept., 1911. Sept., 1912. £, ' ' £ Victoria 37,104,055 38,589,532 New South Wales 44,856,747" 18,043,244 Queensland 16,342,376 17,980,016 South Austraiia.. 8,461,578 Western Australia 7,806,011 Tasmania 2,922,027 3,0/0,/09 Commonwealth .. 117,553,691 124,919,402 New Zealand ... 23,665,601 24,240,030 Total. 141,219,295 149,159,902 Advances in every State increased .during tho twelve months, advances in Victoria being larger by X 1,424,577; New South Wales, by .£3,180,497; -Queensland, by .£1 638.140; South Australia, by iElalMto, Western Australia, by ,£817,57 i; Tasmania, bv JJ148,682; and New Zealand, bv JE574.929. With the increaso in advances and the absence of any appreciate increaso in deposits during the past.

twelve months, tho difference between tho two has narrowed considerably, a comparison with a year ago. and. two years ago being aa Mows:— Sept. Sept. Sept. Quarter, quarter, . quarter, 1910, 1911. 1912. £ £ £. Deposits 152,780,851 169,129,453 169,831,13® Advances 125,460,351 141,219,295 149,159,992

E posits ° f 27,910,161 20,671,142 The New Zealand, figures alone for a 6erie9 of years oompare as under:— Sept. 80. Deposits.* Advances. £ £ 1907 21,655,003 18,498,184 1908 20,310,007 20,217,059 1909 • 20,979,120 18,170,707 1910 23,144,349 18,177,596 1911 23,954,521 21,431,659 1912 23,795,617 22,160,643 "Exclusive of Government deposits. The banking figures show clearly enough why money has been dearer.

COMPANY REGISTRATIONS. Wo are indebted to the "Mercantile Gazette" for our figures dealing with company registrations. Altogether 318 companies were registered during the year, and the amount of tho capital in the aggregate i 6 £3,552,678 13s. 4d. vantage was taken of the' facilities tor registering. private companies, and 129 or such concerns were registered during the vear. The companies with large capitals were Jas. J. Nivcn and Co., .£300,000; Dominion Cement Co., .£250,000; A. b; Paterson and Co., ; John Chamberlain and Sons, W. E. Woods (Peppermint Cure), £100,000; British Empire Petroleum Co., Frank Harris Granite Co., w£80,000; A. and T. Inglis (Dunedin), 000: Arthur Hopwood Hardware . Co., .240,000; George Syrne and Co., .£55,000. It is difficult to classify the companies, but the following will be of interest:— Dairying v ®®>®®® Casein and margarine ... w.wjjj Picture Theatres Shipping ; : 86-®®® Newspapers, etc 'I'S Mining "WOO p nfl i 45,154 | Land companies 215,000 Building and Investment 3J.OUU Timber 11U,5UU Cement, Marble, Granite, eto 887,000 Brick and Tile 15.®00 Medicines - l®®-®°®< Laundry . •••••» Transport . 21,000 SSS SB Jas. J. Niven and Co. •■••••»• J®®'®®® A. S. Paterson and Co 150,000 Jno. Chamberlain and Sons 100,000 Gas 15,001) Miscellaneous • V....... Private companies 73-,bb( s ,£3,552,6781 ' WELLINGTON SHAKE MARKET. , . The' demand for all investment shares, with few exceptions, was well maintained. There has been a sharp advance in New Zealand-Shipping shares and Union Steamship shares. Wellington Gas eased during the past few weeks:,. A comparison of the quotations for the shares of leading companies .is appended:— ■ Deo., 1911. Dec., 1912. '.' £ s. d. .. . £s. di Bank N.Z. ............... 11 15 0 11 0 0 National Bank 5 17 6 G 0 0 N.Z. Insurance 4 11 0 4 14 0 S.B. Insurance ...... 3 9.6 311 0 Standard Insurance... 1 11 6 1 12 3 National Insurance... 118 0 -1 0 ; Well. Gas 18 10 0 16 10 0 N.Z. Shipping 11 10 0 14 0 0 Union Steam 2 1 9 2 7 0 Mosgiel Woollen 3 80' 810 0 Kaiapoi Woollen 5 10 0 5 5 0 Well. Woollen (ord.) 317 G -316 0 Well. Trust and Loan 7 11.0 776 Equitable Building ...' 915 0 915 0 Gear Meat. (£i) 13 6 0 12 15 0 Meat iExport (J25) ...... 6 2 6 - THE MINING MARKET. .' The outstanding'feature of the mining market throughout the year has<been one of d'ullness, and : there has been- -very little speculation.-The output of .gold has been steadily ' shrinking, and to add to the adverse features there were strikes at the Waihi mine and at the Consolidated Mines at Reefton. The history of these strikes is too recent to require special reference. Latterly somo effort has been made to develop-the auriferous black sand on the West Coast, whethersuccess will attend tho business remains to be seen. The members of. the Stock. Exchanges in Auckland and Wellington, or at least' a great number of tliem, anticipate increased activity in 1913, and 1 it is very possible that their anticipations will bo realised. The latest; statistics of the gold yield in the several States of the Commonwealth and New Zealand reveal the disconcerting fact that the gold output continues to diminish ia Quantity. For the'-eleven months of this year and-the corresponding term in 1911, tho figures oompare as under-,— .

Eleven months, - - '1911.' .1912. Fine oz. Fino oz. Victoria 432 ' i3 ° New South Wales ... 162,257 149,743 OuMnaland 317,972 319,356 &n Australia... 1,202,125 1,189,|7 "Tasmania 33 >®™ S S'SSX ♦South. Australia .... 5,500 S,i)QO

Commonwealth ......... 2£82,744 2,133,126 New Zealand •' 396,908 501,414

Australasia ...... 2,679,652 2,434,540 •Estimated.

The comparison' discloses a total shrinkn»o of 149,618 fine oz. in the Australian-, production, Victoria being responsible for a decrease of 89,460 fine oz., Western Australia for 72,528 fine oz., New South Wales for a drop of 12,514 fiiew., and Queensland for 28,616 fine oz. The production in New Zealand _ is- this year 84;494 fine oz. less than in 1911 to the end of November, and, including t!iO Dominion in the calculation, the deficiency in tlie output represents 245,112 'fine oz. THE DOMINION'S TRADE. The value of the exports; for. the year eaided September SO , last ■ totalled ,£20,762,155, inclusive of specie, an . increase over the previous year or .£794 882 Tho total was the second highest on Sd, 1909-10, with *31,968,651 fieirw the record. The imports we valued ,£20,104,486, or J6775.153 more than in .toe previous year; the total was the est on record. The imports too nearly approximate to the .exports and that has been one of the main causes of the dearness of money. The exc,sss < of ex P or^° 0 v fl e 0 r imports should reaxih about for that is about the sum we have to pay annually by way of interest on public and private indebtedness. In the past year has been a considerable amount of importation, and until the surplus stocks are liquidated, and imports kept withm covernable limits, the money stringency is bound to be felt. Tho exports and imports, inclusive of specie, for a series of years, compare as under:Exports. Imports, exports. iqn7B 16 314,173 18,021,426 '1,637,253* 1908-9 18,933,661 15,628,308 3,327,293 1909-10 ... 31,908,651 16,501,171 5,467,481 1910-11 ... 19,967,273 19,329,333 037,94fl 1911.13 ... ■ 20,762,155 20,104,456 607,669 *Bxcess of imports. For the past two years the- imports have been excessive, but merchants are contracting in this respect. Of Jhe> inj| ol '[■ *""3! .£293,000, wool abouit .£150,000, live stock ,£103,000, kauri gum £46,000; and timber £27,000.

THE WOOL MARKET.

"Wool promises to bo a profitable asset, though early in the year .values were much depressed, and a succession of strikes of a serious character helped to keep the market depressed. Originally it ivns intended to hold 6ix sates 111 Lon-, don during the year, but owing to labour troubles it was found necessary to drop one sale. ■ Ths First Series, January 16 to February 3 The new arrivals totalled 3i>-,000 bales,'of which 181,500 bales were forwarded direct to manufacturers, leaving with the quantity brought 'forward about 180,000 bales. Of this quantity 43.-100 bates were from Now Zealand, btattiim with unchanged values for raonnos, and croesbreda slightly dearer than, at thq.

close of November-December auctions, prices remained on much tho same basis throughout, though - the weakness noticeable from the iirst in inferior wasty merinos crystallized into a distinot drop by the closo of the series, and as tho offerings of crossbreds.became larger and the more pressing requirements were filled prices were not maintained at quito the highest point of tho series. Although a considerable number of American buyers wero present whose purchases wore almost entirely confined to fine and medium Sualities crossbreds in light condition, leir operations were conducted far more circumspectly than has often Iwen tho case, so that their presence did little more than maintain prices at December level. But for the-American demand there is no doubt that values would have delined, as, allowing for'the difference between old and new clip, prices for wools not affected by American competition wore barely on a par with last sale's rntes. Of the net quantity available some 107,000■ tales were sold, as under:— Bales. To the Home trade 92,000 To the Continent 68,000 To America 7,000 Held over '. 13,000 180,000 The Seoond Series.—Thi3 series was fixed to begin, on March 5, but had to be postponed to April _ 11 olrin f to the coal strike. This series extended from April 11 to May 4. The fresh arrivals totalled 602,000 bales, and 13,000 bales were held over from the provious 6ales, making 615,000 bales, but of this quantity 340,000 bales were sent, direct to manufacturers, the next quantity available being 275,000 bales. After the close of the January spAjs, the market in Bradford became very dull, and prices were generally quoted easier, but about tne timo that the Maxell sales should havo 1 commenced a- much firmer tone was noticeable, and in spite of the disastrous coal strike this improvement was maintained. Certain users who had cxpected to replenish their stocks in MaTch, found ! it rather hard to . obtain supplies, and even with the shutting down of machinery causcd by the want of coal, most of the supplies of raw material were used up. Merinos were in strong demand from the outset, and prices gradually hardened till at' the close there was a fairly general improvement of 5 per cent. _ Crossbreds ruled practically on a par with January rates, but while the lower and coaraer descriptions appreciated slightly owing to keen competition from the Home trade, American buying was carried on very quietly, so that prices for good bright medium qualities showed no recovery from the rates current at the close of the January sales. The distribution of the wool at this series was as under:— « Bales. Homo trade •■••• Continent ••••• -*®®'®®® United States WTO® •... . Carried over .. 20,000 <- 275,000 The third series. July 2 to August 2.— , The fresh arrivals totalled 493,000 bales; of this quantity 245,000 bales were sent direct to manufacturers, leaving with tho quantity brought forward 268,000 bales. After tlie close of the ■ April-May series, considerable trouble and anxiety was caused to the trade by the- strike of lightermen and transport workers in the port of London. The series opened with a full attendance of buyers, and excellent competition, and values, as compared with the close of April series,-showed a rise •of 5 to 71 per cent, on Mermo3 in general, as well as on fine and medium crossbreds, whilst on coarse crossbreds the improvement was about 5 per cent. It was soon apparent that the demand was general, and' the presence of several American representatives eager to obtain any suitable lots drovo up values for all light, bright parcels of fine and medium quality crossbreds lid. to 2d. per lb. advance + on April rates .being frequently paid. As the sales' progressed, and -buyers' immediate wants were satisfied, competition became less keen, and extreme Tates were, no longer obtainable, but the tone remained firm. The distribution of the.wool at this series was »s under:— , Bales. Home trade Hl'mn Continent '2,000 i United States 18,000 Held over 3MOO . ' _ 268,000 - The fourth series. September 24 _to October 10'.—The new arrivals amounted to 173,000 bales, of which 56,000 bales were sent direct to manufacturers, leavmg with the 30,000 bales brought forward, 147,000 bales. Opening with prices for merinos at par to o per cent, dearer, the market hardened as the sales processed, and. except in, the case,of super wools, an all-round advance of 5 per cent, was established. Both medium and coarse greasy crossbreds improved as the sales progressed, and the former closed 5 to 74 per cent, above closing . August rates, while the latter showed an advance ot fullv 10 per cent., and sometimes even more. The disposition of the wool was as under:— Hotue trade 86,000 Continent United States MJO. Hold over '»°®® 147,000 The fifth series./ November 26 to December 7.—The new arrivals amounted to. 138,000 bales, of which 48,000 bales were forwarded direct to P a^ufr l 0 s > in" available, with the bales carried forward, 97,000 bales. There was a full attendance, and competition by Home and Continental buyers was very keen There was a sharp advance of 7i to 10 per c ® n ' ; . on coarse crossbreds, and merino, and 5 per cent, on fine and medium crossbreds. The firmness' was maintained throughout Hie sales, and practically all the wool offered was cleared. A strong tone was manifested at the close, and the general impression that values will show .father improvement at the Jaauary sales. The distribution of supplies was as under :- Bales. Home trade *8,000 Continental 4 ®'®®® - United States ; M®o Held over J^ 1 ™ 97,000 The total supplies for the year and the distribution of same were as shown beloW "Ralpfl SUP &~arrivals W»®o Brought forward . . 1,767,500 KSt linfto7ct 870,500 Home trade qw'onn Continental United States . Held over 2 - 000 '1,767,500 . We enter upon tho New Tear with wool in an exceedingly strong position. Reports from the principal manufactuim„ centres indicate a wide expansion in tho woollen trade both in England and America and to some extent on the Continent. Added to this activity is the probability

of a shortage of (supplies, so that tho statistical position of wool is eminently satisfactory and promises to •be Zealand's splendid asset in 1913,

OTHER PRODUCE MARKETS. | Frozen meat commanded very good | prices during the year. Tho outbreak of 3 foot-and-mouth disease in Groat Britain Rj affeoted tho local supplies and reliance «j had to bo placed upon, imported meat to m mako good the deficiency. In addition a to this," foreign supplies have not been M excessive. The outstanding feature with a respect to frozen meat is the strong and a partly successful efforts that have been || made to introduco frozen mutton, lamb, || and beef into Continental Europe. As J3 timo goes on an entrance into tho markots a now closed will surely be effected, be- r| causa the domestic supplies' of fresh meat ej are steadily decreasing. Dairy produce H has sold well and tho current season's [jj output will .make good prices. Hides aro Pa abnormally high in value, and skins are [i| in strong demand. In the middle of Oc- a tober last choice nnitton tallow was realis- |1 ing .£4O 15s. per. ton in England, but as H the autumnal requirements of consumers H were filled, values eased gradually, but ja aro still at a high level. New Zealand 0 Hemp advanced a few .weeks ajro owing g partly to a record wheat harvest in North a America, and partly to damage of the H Pllilippino product caused'-by a typhoon. H Practically all New Zealand products are M selling at very remunerative prices. 1

' , OUTLOOK FOB 1913. The outlook for the New Year is not merely good, it is excellent. The temptation to take an extremoly optimistio view of the prospects is almost irresistible, for the factors that make for buoyant trade and prosperity are abundant and conspicuous. Brit.ish trade is enjoying unbounded and unprecedented prosperity; there is extreme industrial activity throughout Great Britain, and a great trade boom 6eems inevitable. In Germany and in Franco, there is also activity. America has harvested a record crop, and trade in that immense country is booking. The trade of - Argentina steadily grows, and so also docs that of South Africa and India. From all points of the compass the reports of improvement are very cheering. Tho basis of this prosperity .is the.magnificent crops harvested this year. In a recent number of the "Journal dea Erono-. mistes," Mr. Toes Guyot emphasises the importance of the world's crops as a ■ primary element in human progress or national prosperity. According to the latest estimates the cereal harvests of 1912 put at the disposal of ' mankind .£210,000,000 more than those of the preceding year. Tne total estimated value of wheat is <£4-1,000,000, more at <£700,000,000, and . the aggregate yield of the world's crops of .wheat, barley, oats, rye, and maize is reckoned to be worth nearly =£2,600,000,000. M. Guyot states that whatever interferes with this, the greatest industry 'of the world, is consequently injurious to human advancement. Great Britain, the United States, and Germany cannot be prosperous without that prosperity being reflected in New Zealand. Wo are, therefore, bound to have a very favourable experience in 1913. The only cloud, at the moment, and it' appears.to be somewhat- large, is the political situation in Europe. If there is'no big European war then the forecasts will be good, but if there is war it will be impossible to say what will happen. Trade is so good at the monieut, and with big promises for the immediate future, that pressure is sure to be applied to hold tlie pugnacious statesmen in check. The prices for all our produce should continue at a high -level, there will probably be plenty of work at good wages far willing workers, and the profits of traders and manufacturers should be satisfactory. Money will continue dear, because it will be m exceptionally strong demand. New Z.ea- • land has .never entered upon a New Year with brighter promises and better prospects than are held out_by the year which will be ushered in on Wednesday next.