OUR POLICY-WHAT?

Dominion, Volume 6, Issue 1628, 20 December 1912, Page 6

OUR POLICY-WHAT?

TOWARDS THE FLEET. IN THESE DAYS OF DANGEB. [CONTIHHUTED.] "Proe pcoploa can escape being mastered by others by being ablo to Ulster themselves. ... In tho last analysis tho all important factor m national greatness ia national character." (No. II.) Germany's Great Friend—Time. • It.was pointed out in the previous article that under modern conditions, when two competing nations are prepared to malic every possible. sacrifice, naval supremacy will be gained by the wealthier nation. In the Anglo-German struggle for- the supremacy of the sea the German people bear a smaller burden per head (19' shillings) than the English (30 shillings), the increase in numbers of the Germans by 850,000 per year will enable them' to' spend a rapidly-increasing amount on defence without any increase in the burden on the individual. On tho other hand, England's population (compared to Germany's) is more nearly a stationary one. Our superiority is purely one of wealth: a superiority which is declining, and can but continue to do so.

Given the continued undisturbed operation of'these conditions, it is only a matter of time before Germany will wrest the supremacy of the sea from England. As is well known', our supremacy has already declined. But to apprpci'ate exactly the gravity of the present situation it is necessary to compare carefully the , strengths of tho English and German fleets. The comparison discloses a situation, to those who attach any importance to the maintenance of our naval supremacy, as grave as it can be. If these navies come to the test of war, all indications ' point to an engagement between battleships in the North Sea. We consider this possibility reluctantly, for surely humanity has failed if the nation foremost in intellectual enlightenment settles, by such a , brutal arbitrament, its differences with the 'nation foremost in political development? It is, however, impossible to disregard tho warnings that exist. It is in regard to.that type of warship that the comparison is here made for the two nations. As all battleships are not of equal fighting value, it will bo necessary to allow both for age and for the superiority .of. the Dreadnought type over older types.

Our Waning Battle Power at Sea. In the following comparison of the German and English navies boats of more than twelve years old are not included, the Dreadnoughts are taken as equal, to two of the older type of battleship: Comparison of German and English Fleets of the ■ Line. . ' 1902 1905 1907 1809 1910 1911 1912 Percentage superiority of Eng- ' German... 222 192 150 12G 104 69 50 The meaning, of percentage superiority may be illustrated for 1910. In that year we had a battleship fleet" ■ double the strength of the German, or, .in other words, we'had a I'OO per cent, superiority. Our superiority has dropped from 222 per cent, in 1902 to 101 per cent, in 1910, and since then in two years to 50 per cent. These figures are tho prosaic record of the passing in a decade of a supremacy built up by generations of Englishmen, culminating in England's struggle against the domination of Napoleon. The Admiralty, in its Memorandum to tho Canadian. Ministry, Eives these figures:— . German Navy. 5698. 1920. Battleships 9-. .' & Large cruisers 3 .- . 20 Men 25,000 101,500 Annual cost .£6,000,000 £23,000,000 Briefly, the German navy will have.quadrupled in strength in less than a quarter of a century. ■

Nota Bene: Germany Does Not Stop. In this connection it is important to point, out that Germany lias had no desire to decrease her armaments, on the contrary, during tho throe years 1906 to 1908, iu which we decreased ours, she made an exceptionally increase in her fleet. During the five years before 1906 when Cainpbcll-Bannerman came into power our average expenditure was .£36,200,000. The Liberals believed that reduction in our expenditure, accompanied by- suitable representations to (iernianjV'-would- lead to a similar reduction in her vote. What occurred will go down to history as a proof that Germany's intentions wore not pacific. Representations for the reduction of armaments were; made by England; no one could doubt their sincerity, and our expenditure was reduced to <£32,500,000 in 1008, to .£31,100,000 in 1907, to .£31,800,000 in 190S, or by .£32,900,000 tor the three years. Germany replied by increasing' her expenditure bv ,£700,000 in 190G, by ,£2,200,000 in 1907, and by' .£2,300,000 in 190 S. We made a reduction of 13 millions. Sho an increase of five millions. Her intentions' could no longer be misunderstood. We have had this year further proof of them. Mr. Churchill, First Lord of the Admiralty, speaking on July 22, 1912, of a new German Navy Law, said: . •

"The main feature (of this law) is tho increase in the striking force of ships of all classes immediately available at all seasons of the year. . . .

Taking a general view of the effect of the law, nearly four-fifths of the entire German Navy will be maintained

.... instantly, and constantly ready for war. Such a proportion is remarkable, and, so far as I am aware finds no example inthe previous practice of any modern naval Power." ". . . All tho world is arming as it never armed before We have to face the simultaneous building of many nations of great modern ships of war. Wo have to protect from all dangers or alarms dominions and territories scattered over every continent and across every ocean."

And Besides all this—tho Pacific Problem. Momentous as the supremacy of the North Sea is to the security oi- the British Dominions, to our political institutions, which, as a race, we believe to be the freest and most enlightened that mankind has y«t evolved, it would be suicidal to ignore other problems, which, though less eminent, threaten more serious consequences. Wo may never safely forget in New Zealand that our security depends on Australia being occupied by a friendly people. Were it once occupied by an Asiatic Power our security .would be gone. The British Empire can just as certainly be dismembered by a Sea Power in tho Pacific attacking Australia, New Zealand, or, Canada, as by a European Power in tho North Sea. Obvious and fundamental ns this is it as repeatedly ignored by the public. '

The' press in New Zealand has been remarkable for t'ho attention it has given to defence questions. Nevertheless the special problems of the Pacific, though of such vital consequence to New Zealand, receive no more attention from our press and public men than they would need if wo lived in Iceland. I hasten to note two exceptions to this —an Auckland newspaper (which recently made important inquiries in the Piicific Islands) and the Hon. James Allen. Wβ have in this.a reproduction of t'ho main cause of Canada's tardiness to tako its share of tho burden of defence. The Canadian press deriving its news from American sources was Tcmarkablc for tho paucity of any opinion or news relating to Imperial problem?. A most thoughtful study of the questions involved is Pox'vs "Problems of the Pacific" (Williams, ■and Norgate, 1012, price 9s.)—a book that should bo widely read in Australasia. Japan is not unlike Now Zealand: it is about as far north as we aro south of the Equator; its climato is like that of the North Island, but somewhat moister, and warmer in summer. It is half as large again as New Zealand, but its people number over 500,000,000. .The density of tho population in Japan is 330 pe'r squaro mile, in Now Zealand 10, In Australia lws than two. Jajan havinff'.

been aroused by Europe-, Westernised herself with extraordinary rapidity. In 1891 she- fought China for Korea. Her triumphs included the naval engagement of the Yalu. Russia, Germany, and France, however, deprived her of the fruits of victory with the exception of a war indemnity of JC57,000,000. In loss than ten years she was jroady to stay Russia's encroachment in Korea and Manchuria, and Japan went to war again. Everyone knows how completo was tho success of the Japartese arms ngainst Russia, especially on tin sea. Japan captured a number of battleships, and her navy to-day consists of (excluding boats more than 12 years old), including two Dreadnoughts: Battleships, 10; battleship cruisers, Dreadnought type, i; armoured cruisers, G.

This gives her tho command of tho Pacific. A Tokio paper recently stated: "At a secret session of the Budget Commission on February 3, Baron Saito, Miuistor for Marine, declared thnt tho irreducible minimum of naval expansion was eight battleships of tho super-Dread-nought class, and eight armoured cruisers of tho same class, which must, bo completed by 1920, construction being: bogun in 1913. Tho cost is estimated at .£35,000,000." In other words, Japan proposes to build 10 additional boats of tho Dreadnought typo by 1920. Sho has already launched six Dreadnoughts, nnd her Navy is nearly as strong, if not stronger,"than that of France.