The Dominion WEDNESDAY, DECEMBER 4, 1912. THE WAR AND THE FUTURE.

Dominion, Volume 6, Issue 1614, 4 December 1912, Page 6

The Dominion WEDNESDAY, DECEMBER 4, 1912. THE WAR AND THE FUTURE.

While the Balkan Allies and Turkey have been conducting their negotiations for, an armistice with a view to an ei£rly,''endi ; ng of the war, the difficulties which surround a satisfactory settlement between tho various interested nations have be-' come more apparent. The outstanding feature of the situation and tho greatest menace to a continuance of peaceful relations between the Great Powers is the selfish and grasping attitude of Austria. It has Deen plain almost from the outset that Austria had macje up her mind to take advantage bf the struggle between Turkey and the Allies to further her own plans of aggrandisement. Gradually, but very resolutely, she has been working towards the attainment of her great ambition to secure an outlet on the Aegean Sea. For years Austrian policy has been shaped with a view to an extension of the boundaries of the Empire to the south-east and towards the sea. Secretly or openly,-as best suited her plans at the moment, she has been at work in furtherance of this design, and in the war now proceeding she realises that her chance has come to make a definite step _ forward. Discussing the dangers likely to arise at the close of the war, and the determination of Austria to serve her ends, The Spectator voiced a very general impression when it expressed the'opinion that whatever the outoome, would not permit any settlement likely to place a bar to her own progress towards the ultimate acquisition of a port on the Aegean Sea. The journal mentioned went so far as to prophecy that in any settlement as to territory arising out of the war fresh hostilities might be regarded as certain to eventuate unless Austria's aspirations in this direction were not interfered with. AH that is necessary for us to say on tho present occasion, it< remarked, is that if war is to be avoided the solution reached [the adjustment of the differences of the present belligerents] must not cut oif Auslrin-Huncary s hope of eventually reaching Salonika and the sea. Translated into geographical terms this means thattheSanjakof Novi Bazar must in any caso fall back into Austrian possession and occupation, and that a stretch of territory which shall include Salonika must oither fall to Austria-Hungary at once, or, what in present circumstances Austria-Hungary would probably prefer, he left under some system of government which will not close the door to her. This was written on Ootober 19 and subsequent events have gone to show tho accuracy of the forecast made. Russia is, of course, Austria's great stumbling-blook. Russia's sympathies lie with the Balkan States and her interests naturally lead her to hope for their success against Turkey. Whether she is prepared to risk a war with Austria and Germany in order to support Servia's claims to a port in the Adriatic which would bar Austria's ambitions, is another matter. On present appearances it would seem that Russia is advising Servia not to press her original claims, and that there is a strong likelihood of Servia being content to accept the suggestion that she should have access to a port without acquiring the territory necessary to obtain that access—that it should be treated as neutral territory. At the same time the gravity of the-situation can be estimated by the following extracts from cablegrams published in the London Times so recently as last week : Russia and Austria are nearer to war thau they have ten since the commencement of the Balkan trouble. The Tsar's troops are being rushed to the Polish and Galicion frontiers, Austria's naval activity is extraordinary. Austria's army is ready, and tho Government is determined on active hostilities to preserve the autonomy of Albania. •Servian troops are being recalled from the south to protect Belgrade, and the fortress there is being hurriedly armed with bigger guns. Servia lias established censorship rules with regard to Austria, Italy, and Russia. 'J'hu Austrian wiadrrm, wn« at .feanm lws loit x<w &a uwiaown (test!-.

nation, and tho Bulgarians havo ongnKcd twenty-nine Greek vessels to Inko troops to seme port not mentioned. Eight British battleships havo unexpectedly arrived at Malta. These messages serve to,indicate tho state of feeling amongst the different powers. The recalling o£ Servian troops to Belgrade is of course in response to the movement of Austrian troops to the Servian frontier; while the rushing o£ the Thau s forces towards the Austrian frontier is a demonstration which cannot be lightly treated. _ Since then Germany has been active and has definitely announced that she will stand by Austria should any of tho Powers attempt to interfere between Austria and Servia. Probably the most reassuring sign at tho moment is the indication ot internal icalousness springing up between the Balkan Allies. .Divided, these small nations cannot hope to hold out against the brcssurc of tho Great Powers, and feussia, however much sho might sympathise with their aspirations, would be less likely to risk serious intsrforenco in their behalf should they split amongst themselves in arriving at a settlement as to their respective clainw to tha fruits of victory. But with fresh difficulties and new complications arising almost daily it is practically useless attempting .even to speeulato as_ to what may happen. The one thing that appears certain is that the danger threatening the peace of Europe is increasing as the war between the Balkan Allies and Turkey seems to be drawing to a close.'