The Dominion. TUESDAY, AUGUST 20, 1912. THE DANUER SPOT IN EUROPE.

Dominion, Volume 5, Issue 1523, 20 August 1912, Page 6

The Dominion. TUESDAY, AUGUST 20, 1912. THE DANUER SPOT IN EUROPE.

"In the spring time, as soon asthe snows melt from the Balkan highlands, the fancy of the Bulgars, the Serbs, and the Greeks turns lightly to thoughts of war," wrote the tator two years ago. Since then no great conflagration has swept the Balkans. It has been a period of waiting and of suspense. Tho surrounding Powers have been moving uneasily. There has been "a sound of going in the tops of the mulberry, trees"; but no one could tell, no one knew, whai that sound portended. Precisely how Germany, AustriaHungary, Russia, and Italy regard tho Balkans at the present ' time probably no one outside the different Chancelleries can say; nor is it necessary to speculate on the desires harboured by each Power. No Power can have at th'c present time a cut-and-dry programme with_ respect to the Near East. The situation there at any moment may undergo a complete transformation. In the meantime Turkey seems to be the basis upon which tho immediate future of the Balkans largely depends. The end of the Tripolitan' War has not yet been reached, and the nature of the conditions which will ultimately bring peace between Italy and Turkey remains for the future to unfold. No one speaks nowadays about sending ths Turks out" of Europe—bag and baggage, as the process of ejectment was wont to.be phrased. Turkey is in a far from enviable state. The recent disclosures opneorning unknown cliques controlling in socret the Committee of Union and Progress'are somewhat disconcerting, and will cause uucasiness until the true character and political aims , of the paramount few are made known. That the names and policy of this seemingly powerful b.ody have not been publicly intimated docs not necessarily imply that cither names or policy represent hostility to the restoration ot peace and progress. For the present, at all events, Turkey's attitude towards the."eternal Macedonian question" may be considered as unaltered. On her northern and western confines, Turkey is, as it were, walled in by a semi-circle of nationalities, which are to all appearance waiting for an opportunity to. attempt the destruction of Ottoman povtar in Europe. Boyond Bulgaria, however, is Rumania, which remains friendly to Turkey and hostile to Bulgaria. Two years ago it was reported that Rumania, in the cvpnfc of a conflict ensuing between Bulgaria and Turkey, would mobilise all her corps d'arnu'x along tho military frontier of Bulgaria. Both Bulgaria and Rumania possess well equipped, highly efficient armies. Tho Rumanian, however, is much superior to the Bulgarian, a fact which, doubtless, has helped to damp the military ardour and restrain the ambitions of Kixg Ferdixand, News has now come that Bulgaria and Scrvia have

concluded an alliance. Scrvia's military forces combined with Bulgaria's would about equal Rumania's army in numbers; but the fighting qualities of King Peter's men seem doubtful, at least, extremely difficult to determine. The alliance between Bulgar and Serb is a significant development, and it would be not surprising if the announcement were to tollo-w that Montenegro had become a third unit in that alliance. Al- 1 bania demands independence, and the question of rendering their little but warlike neighbour assistance may bo considered by the members of the new alliance. This series of alliances is consistent with the known aims of AiNG Ferdinand. His policy, he explains, is the federation of the Balkan States; his object, declare his critics, is to become Tsar of the Balkans. Bulgaria, Servia, and Montenegro, it is believed, may yet form the fundamental element of a Balkan combination. It is, however doubtful if Italy would view with approval a combination such as this. Italy is seeking to win over both Montenegro and Albania. Not one, but two buffer States are apparently ccemed necessary to prevent the further march of Austria-Hungary towards the Mediterranean. A Balkan federation, or any form of combination for defensive purposes, would be objected to strongly Ly Germany and Austria-Hungary. .A number of sma.ll, separate, and independent nations might be overcome one by one, but a strong, patriotic federation of the same States would probably mean an absence of intrigue and freedom from attack. Pan-Germanism looks forward <o an imaginary future when the Balkans, Turkey, and Asia' Minor will bo part and parcel of the great German Empire. That the two German Powers are now actively engaged upon some policy affecting the Balkans seeiiis manifest. lunq -Ferdinand a few weeks ago journeyed, first to Vienna, w.here he consulted Emperor Francis Joseph, then to Berlin, to be the guest of the Kaiser. Immediately Bulgaria's Sovereign had left the Austrian Court, King Nicholas of Montenegro arrived. Russia has just been suggesting to Montenegro the expediency ol avoiding a rupture with Turkey. Whatever the advice tendered to the two Balkan Kings in Vienna and Berlin was, judging by what has transpired since it seems to have been scarcely of a pacificatory character. Montenegro has displayed a tendency to grapple single-handed with Turkey, and Bulgaria has entered into an alliance \vith Servia. Is the latter to enable a combined attack to bo made, first on Rumania, afterwards on Turkey 1 The Constantinople correspondent of the London Observer has, in an interview with a Turkish Minister, elicited the interesting information that a grave error was made when Germany was considered by Turkey "a more helpful friend" than Great Britain. Turkey is seeking to renew her friendship with Great Britain, and, simultaneous with that change of attitude towards the two Powers, the German Ambassador at Constantinople is transferred to London. Baron Marschall von Bieberstein has been well described as "an adroit and formidable personality." He is the Kaiser's ablest andmqst successful Ambassador. To him is due the displacement of British diplomacy from its historic position in Turkey; at The Hague Conference ho overbore British views; as Foreign Secretary he declared the independence of the Transvaal to be a German interest; he was the co-author of the policy which produced the Khuoer telegram. Yet the German press wishes .tho Baron to be considered as "an olivo branch offered Great Britain." A-more probablo reason for this astute diplomat's presence in London is to watch for, and prevent if possible, an entente between Great Britain and Turkey! Tho present Balkan problem is easier far to state than to solve.