THE RUSSIAN ENIGMA.

Dominion, Volume 5, Issue 1509, 3 August 1912, Page 13

THE RUSSIAN ENIGMA.

EXPLANATION OF HER WORLD POLICY. HER AMBITIONS. POINTS OF DIFFERENCE WITH HER FRIENDS. (London "Observer" Correspondent.) St. Petersburg, May 30. Russia has been talked about of lato moro than is good for nor reputation, Hot position appears vaguo to foreign observers. Tho trend of her policy is said to need elucidation. Her relations with France, her attitudo towards the Triple Entente, tho motives of hor friendship lor Italy, tho designs she cherishes in tho Far East, her intentions in Persia, and the aims sfhe has reset herself in South-East-ern Buropo have all in turn been the subjects of animated debate. Statesmen and politicians want to know what they may reasonably look for from Russia in the near future. They ar.e groping their way in a fog, they complain. And yot tho Empire of the Tsars has rover had a more straightforward, plaindealing Minister of Foreign Affairs than the man who presides over that Department to-<lay. Ambassadors in St. Petersburg will tell you that 11. Sazanoff is a man to be implicitly trusted. And I know he is. Ho says what ho means, and ho means what ho says. Mental reservation as not one of the methods of his diplomacy. Consequently if there bo an/ incertitude in the minds of foreign statesmen as to what Russia is really driving at, it 6hould bo sot down to other causes. And chief among these is the variety of her interests, the peculiar Old World treaties in which they are recorded, and her resolve to asert all tho claims to which she possesses such titles. Russia might aptly be likened to an cddly-shaped stone which cannot be dovetailed, with other stone 3 and cemented into one solid mass of masonry. Special allowances have to be made for her by the Powers of tho Triple Entente. In Persia she leans towards a strong monarchy— -and m this I think she is not far wrong—in South-Eastern Europe to obtain the leadership of the Slav nations is her 11111111810 aim. The exclusive right of sending her warships through the Dardanelles to and from the Black Sea constitutes her immediate end, while in the Far East she is resolved to keep Northern Manchuria for all time, to monopolise the exploitation of tho natural riches of Outer Mongolia, and also to get what sbe can from China by advoeating together with tho other Powers tho open door there. In plain words, Russia is pursuing a purely Russian policy, and what she cannot have by hook she will try to get by crook.

The Triple Entonte. 'Now for membership of the Triple Entente; -what is wanted'is a basis _of common interests, common aims, identical means. And it is because Russia lias little in common with the other two Powers that they find it so difficult to get along with her. Take the Near East as an example. Russia's designs there .are hardly reconcilable with those of her French ally. Sho covets diplomatic. influence- as a means to political sway and ultimately to territorial aggrandisement. That, of course, is quite natural and patriotic; nor will anyono call in question her right to pursue purely national aims there and everywhere else. But the object of tho Triplo Entente is not to serve as an instrument for the attainment of tho egotistic desires of any one of its members; it is to_ maintain peace by eliminating or paralysing tho causes of war, and to uphold things as they are for the time being. But Russia would fain uso it as a lever for her own advantage. Russia's suggestion, in its pristine form, that diplomatic steps should be taken with a view to .putting an end to the Turco-Italian war, and the severity with which subsequently the Porte was called upon to observe the letter of a treaty and keep open the Dardanelles, irrespective of Italy's aggression, aroused misgivings abroad which found expression in wild stories about a Russo-Italinn convention. Much less improbable is the hypothesis that Russia would fain have the Dardanelles problem solved to her own advantage —to which Italy has promised to raise no objection—as soon as hostilities have come to a close. But the r -ort that she has already invited tho Powers to send plenipotentiaries to a conference or has mooted the subject in any other form, is groundless. I can go further and state that it is not Russia's intention to take the initiative in any such procedure in future, even should the conditions later oh prove auspicious. All the great Powers may, if they like, act in concert, or else the two belligerents will be left to themselves to conclude peace on terms which, however, shall not upset tho equilibrium of conflicting interests in South Eastern Europe. , Relations With France,

Now, France's relations with Turkey are Tory different from those. Territorial expansion is, of course, excluded from her programme. Tho fate of the Slav Christians, too, who are incomparably better off than they used to bo, is a matter of relative indifference to French capitalists, and it is mainly they who count. They have invested large sums of money in Ottoman undertakings, which are prospering on the whole, and they are not minded to jeopardise these economic interests in order to humour Russian nationalists. France declines to kill the Turkey that lays tho golden eggs which contribute to her riches, and therefore sho holds aloof from Russia whenever sho thinks that Russia's policy tends that way. And that the French Ambassador, M. Louis, was of that mind on more than one important occasion is certain. He also differed from M. Saswnoff in his view of Italy. This is a delicate matter in which it is needless to enter. , It may suffice to note that Italy's military operations in tho Aegean and their wisned-for political outcome cannot possibly bo contemplated at the same angle of vision on the banks of the Siena and of tho Neva. And if at tho termination of the war the Maroheso di San Giuliano should purpose retaining tho island of Rhodes for the House of Savoy, ono can well understand that tho news—if news it werer-would affect Russian and French diplomatists very differently. But when all is said and dono the. differences between the two points of view can and will be bridged over.

The Persian Question. Persian affairs divide Great Britain and Russia to a certain extent, just as Balkan problems separate Russia and France. Our London Foreign Office, Russians complain, view Persian politics through constitutional spectacles, whereas that of St. Petersburg looks at them through a Monarchist medium. "One-man rule, and as firm as'nossible" is Russia's ideal. Hence she declined the otheT day to nse her troops, which are stationed in Kazvin, for the purpose of barring Salar-ud-Dow-leh's way to the capital. Tho British Foreign Office made the suggestion, but the Russian Premier and the Minister of Foreign Affairs both refused to hear of it. They will not allow the Tsar's troops, they explained, to be employed on tho errands of either band of adventurers. . And what is more, they see no reason why Russia should not recognise Salar-ud-Dowleh or anybody else who manages to ascend the Peacock Throne. "That is Persia's domestic concern." they explain. And one cannot rebut tho contention. As for tho Far East, Russia is bant on realising her old dreams of conquest there. Circumstances, once inauspicious, now seem favourable to her aspirations. She and Japan are leagued together, and are both resolved to leave no stono unturned to carry out their programme. Manchuria will never be given back; -Mongolia will bo partitioned in and absorbed for the behoof, political and economic, of the two allies, who will then join the other Powers iii putting pressure upon China for tho open door.

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