YUAN AND HIS PRESTIGE

Dominion, Volume 5, Issue 1379, 4 March 1912, Page 5

YUAN AND HIS PRESTIGE

' DIVIDED VIEWS IN CHINA. Tho question of whether a republican form of Government in China could bo inaugurated with a sufficiently strong central power to hold the provinces together is very largely, writes Mr. Archibald R. Cohiuhonn in tho "iortnightly Review," a question of personalities. Ho adds: Then arises the question: Whoro is the man who c;\n replace, by virtue of strength, wisdom, and public confidence, the dynasty which has hitherto held its place as a semi-divine institution, the apex of tho family life of tho nation? European publications have been busily canvassing the claims of one or two 'men to lwcomo "the father of the people." Opinion (in Europe and America) sceDj,s to ho divided between Sun Yet Sen, n dovoted revolutionary propagandist, and Yiinn-Sliih-Uni, a clever and able opportunist. Hut if may be safely said that Yuan, regarded by the Manolms. as their only remaining chance, because he once before saved tho Empress-Dowager at the expi'nse of the Reform movement, is neither a Washington nor a Bismarck. He is not entirely trusted by either party in the State, and although his real ability is recognised, ho is not as universally acclaimed in China, as in the Western world. The panegyrics poured out on him have not always pleased Chinese readers, who are a little tired of hearing that ho is their "one strong man." At the present time he is doing all he can to come down on the right side of (ho fence. As for Dr. Sun, it is no disparagement to an earnest and self-sacrificing apostle of reform to say that he is neither a Garibaldi nor a Cavour. Whether he is a Mazzini remains to be seen.

There is something to be said for tho plans, as given to wo by the reformers, of a military domination to last for a term of years, followed by a transition period, and leading up to full constitutional government. Even at this last stage they propose to retain a check on the democracy; first, by keeping that examination system, to which tho Chinese are so well accustomed, and having u standard for voters; and second, by expanding another familiar institution, tho Board of Censors, into an Inspectorate, under central control, to check abuses and draw attention to needed reforms. Whether tlin ardent" spirits, who have placed the purification of the administration and the abolition of the queue, foot-binding, domestic slavery, and the abuse of opium ou the list of reforms to be tackled in their first years of reconstruction, will be strong enough to persist with their policy remains to be seen. Vnlortunatelv for the theory of a strong central military power the germ of it does not, at present, exist, us it did in Turkey, in « unified army under central control. The Chinese ■armies, apart from the Manelui, Chinese, and .Mongol bannernien and the official army (which exists largely ou paper), nro raised anil maintained in the provinces, and it will be difficult to secure unity of action, especially after the first shock of collision is over. There appears to be no military leader of sufficient experience and outstanding reputation to be universally acclaimed. The reformers are securing the services of General Homer Len, a well-known American writer on military questions, as nil adviser, but if it is true that Dr. Sun Yat Sen is to be tho first President of the new Republic, he, as u civilian, will have some difficulty with the military authorities. At one time Yuan-Shih-lvai commanded a force which was superior to any other in Clriuii, but it is two years since he retired, and it is not clear that his military prestige has survived.