THE POLITICAL CRISIS.

Dominion, Volume 5, Issue 1376, 29 February 1912, Page 5

THE POLITICAL CRISIS.

—-«—. MR. MASSEY'S STRONOf POSITION; IWHAT WILL THE WARDISTS DO? BIFFTCI'LTIES 'AHEAD OP TUKJIV The rosult of Tuesday night's division on tho no-toniidence motion does not clear tli» political atmosphere to any extent, mid (he general opinion is that .Mr. Mnsscy is vlill in a very ftronx poMtion. As ;\ luattor uf fact, prominent Oppositional.-* express themselves as really better pleased at the result of Iho tlivi-ioii Iliiin if Ilii-y had ser.ired a small majority ami had lieeu dependent upon (ho votes of ihe pledge-breakers, It is now anticipated Hint a majority of members will be prepared to vote with the Reform parly when the House, meets for the transaction of business. Hut in any caw, even if Die Jfpform party were unablo lo secure a majority, nothing could prevent a. dissolution, seeing that it is o,uite ininwssible to get together from (hn remains of tho Liber.il parly a Government strong enough to carry on. Tho division shows that the Opposition to the Ward Ministry consisted of 3S straight-out members of Ul.O Kel'orm party mid one Labour man. Ihe Government, on the other hand, could only muster Iβ straight-out Government supporters, ami had to get assistance from four independents and three Labour men. There are not iinny members anxious to face their constituents apiin, but it may not l)o possible (0 secure a working majority and stability of Government by any other means than a dissolution, Thoro nre some, remarkable stories circuliituig in Iho lobbies and in (lie, city with reference to the means adopted. lb secure the votes of tho wiverers, though it should bo clearly understood that tho stories do not relate to monetary considerations. Will Ho Resign?

Yesterday, one of Hip most intoresting topics of conversation was, us to whether Sir .lost-tili Ward would repugn lmmedi ttely or endeavour (o hang on to olnee for another four months. The general opinion is Dint lio will Imnd in ins resignation, but not immediately. Ims pointed out that it would lien wrong thing and a dangerous precedent for any Prune Minister to remain in office on the casting voto of the .Speaker in a division secured through braken pledges one of winch was broken because of a promise of resignation of the Premiership. It is generally adiniltrd that if Sir Joseph Ward cannot hold (he party together, it will be impossible for anyone else to do eo, and there is a verv strong fcelin? that the new Ministry should take ollie'e prior to the prorogation of Parliament. Jf Sir Joseph U'ard 'should endeavour to hold to office till .lime, it is iu.st possible that there will be some expression of opinion in Hie House on tliis point prior to the adjournment. It is believed that his intention is (o resign a few weeks hence, nnd in Hint ense the new liberal Ministry would carry on the affairs of the country from Htc dr.te of his resignation until tho House meets in .Tune.

Some Oppositionists foresee a sort of Nemesis for Sir Joseph Ward or his party in the task of grappling with the financial problems which lie was apparently leaving—deliberately, according to ilr. James Allen—for his successors to (leal with. , It is apparently the intention of the Government to bring the present session to a close to-day, unless a debate on the report of tho Privilege Committee necessitates a further sitting to-iutirrow. Who Will Load? Who is to be the new Liberal Lender? That is tho question that is just now agitating the minds of most people on tho Government side of tho House. Tho riddle is an extremely difficult one to solve. Mr. Thos. Mackenzie is tho man most frequently mentioned, but hi;-would probably not lie anxious to lake tho job, as being it country representative, he cannot be greatly in favour of a good deal of the matter contained in thn Governor's Speech. The alternative is Mr. Laureiiscn, but he does not command a sufficiently large following in the parly. Sir Arthur Guiniiess's name has been mentioned, but objection is also taken to him. It is recognised that ho makes n good Speaker, but that lie has not tlio , lire and magnetism requisite in a loader, Besides, it is donblful if he would risk the Speakership for a few weeks' tenure of the more responsible office. It is agreed on all linnds that leadership by Mr. 'Millar would not' bo tatisfactory to the party. Mr. J. A. llnnan is said to be quietly endeavouring to push his cart to (ho front, but his claims to the leadership receive! little or no encouragement' from his I'elloif-mcm-Ijpis, though it is pretty eorlnin that he will not bo denied a place in the new Liberal Cabinet, if it is ever formed. There is a widespread belief that, even if Sir Joseph Ward resigns, he will, after a period of no great length, accede to a request, should such bo forthcoming, to resume the party leadership. The New Cabinet. The inclusion of Mr. 'A. M. Myers (Auckland East) in His new Cabinet is generally regarded as assured. A suggestion was made by a northern member of the party that the new Administration will all'ord adequate -Ministerial representation to the Auckland province. His opinion was that the political pendulum has swung northwards, and that when a new Government is formed at least two members from Auckland electorates will be included. Portfolios will, he considered, be offered lo Mr. Myers nnd to either. Mr. V. H. Heed (linv of Islands) or Mr. W. 1). S. Jlaedonald (Bay of I'lr-nty). Canterbury members, on Hie other hand, point out" that (heir province returned more Liberal members than any other part of the country, nnd they talk of the claims of Mr. Kli and Mr. I.aureuson. Mr. Sidey is spoken of as , a possible Otago Minister,

Views of a Liberal Member. Some, interesting views on Hie political situation were expressed by a prominent member of the "Liberal" party in nn interview last evening:. Re stiilud deiinitcly that the question of rwonstrticliim had not yet boon formally considered by the party, but ho anticipate;! that some aspects of (hat limtter would be submitted to it before members departed for their home?. JS'o official notiliciitioii hail yot bi'cii Riven of u caucus monthi}.', bill. it was probable that one would be held to-day. The qualifications of various members for tlio leadership of the parly had been discussed unions groups of member.--, bill, so far us lie conlil nsci-rtnin, the're was no poncral agrcLMiuMit upon the spleetion of any one of.lhem. There was no ilonbt in his mind that Sir Joseph Ward would retire from the jinsitum ol I'rime Jrinistcr, for ivlinteyer -il.'lhcullies niißlit be experienced in choosing a sucw'Sfor who would bo ncceptabjo to (ho pnrly. it wa? impossible for Sir Joseph Ward to withdraw lrom the attitude lie li,ul adopted, mid to retain the leadership of (lie parly. Such speeches us Unit of Mr. Robertson were u suflicient obstacle to such « <omw. He did not oiitii-ip.itn that Sir .losejili uard would retire, iiilo tho rank and file of ihe parly. It was more probable that ho would accept a, seat in the Cabinet: in an honorary position, vofaininir, possibly, Ihe jwrtfolio of l'oslmrtetor-Uunoral.

Possibilities and Impossibilities. A i-0.-iew of the qualities of membnrs who had been siirrpploil ns likoly to siicicoil lo (lie lcailPi-slii|> of tin- Liberal party wns not likoly In he very snlisl'notcry.' No one could «ny whal a mnn ivonld noliieve in tlip position until ho had been tried. For instance, the upnointment of the late 3fr. Scddon to the Cabinet wns ridiculed at th? time, mid anyone who had ventured to predict that he would prove Hie greatest Prime Minister in the history of Xew Zealand would have been classed (is a madman. The reconstruction, of the Administration would, this member believed, be an extensive one, though he hod no aiillioritotive information ns lo which <:f the Ministers would bo replacwl. .Any MTiUiKOiiioiit that was made in lib ii ti'Dl.ilive 'Mi'.', anil the new Adminislnilion would, he devotii tljo n'fnss In the task of iiitl-tinp: iN house in order in vca.liiKv-s to mnnt Parliament in Juno. It would bp for (.lie new leiulcr to consolidate lh(j LibuNiJ foKes in readiness

for Ilia fitfcack that was certain U> b<. made upon thDm when, (lio House assembled for the ordinary session, [lis mvii opinion was that; no announce.moiit regarding reconstruction proposals MOllld 111' Illlido befol'O tile <'!]<! Of t])O lll'Osoul; session. The personnel of tlio new Administration would bo announced within 11 few weeks, certainly lie thought before llio end of thn iiiiniK'iul year. )t was very probabln that during (fin recess a campaign of tho country would bo undertaken, Possibly that, would bo parried out by llin new- ."Ministry, fo Dint its members would have an opportunity of acquainting themsolves wil'li oil parts of the Dominion and of presenting themselves to the people. Another Opinion. Another member t tho "Liberal" party staled last evening ihat Sir Joseph Ward should not endeavour l<i cniTy on Iho business of the country after having given a promise to resign. lf« added that his icsixiiiitiini should bo sent in within a week or u fortnight. Ho admitted that the Liberal party were in an extremely difficult portion, and that ninny of them—especially tlii' country members—did not like Hie policy ciiuiicialcd in the sjjeccli from Hip Throne. They had. lip said, 150110 lo the country on (lie. last Budget, «nd not 011 ihe new-fnnnil policy put into the Uioutll of the, Jung's representative. The Labour Party. Tho attention of Mr. Veilch was drawn to the following staU-nient appenrinu in liist nifht's "lOvening J'ost":—"The Labour members will join forces with it (the Government parly), including- Mr. Veileli, who, having satisfied his election plndKC, will vote with the Government." Mr. Vi'ilch thereupon remarked, "I am not pledged to either of the two great parties in tlio Jlouse. Sfy influence will be used in the direction of supporting the great reforms that the Labour party stands for." Mr. Veil eh indiciitcd Hint lie could not say anything more, definite in tho present uncertain state of affairs. ]t is understood that the Labour members will cilf denvour to net (ogol'her.

THE REFORM PARTY. "SOLID AND LOYAL." Attempts have been made to discredit the Deform Party in the eyes of tho public liy the circulation of rumours of disintegration and disloyalty. There is substantial evidence of the solidarity of its fortes and of the unriuiilifipd allegiance of its members to Mr. Massey. The views'of the pnrty were expressed last evening by a group of Oppositionists who are intimately acquainted with the opinions of nil members. They ridiculed tho suggestion that the tactics of their leader hail been questioned in any way, and in support of this statement, described tin* hunttiness with which the members of the party had met Mr. Massey at lli» concfusio'n of the debate on (lie previous evening. The greatest'goodwill Was displayed towards him, .ind the twist of )m health was honoured with expressions of appreciation of the valuable services rendered liy him to the- party, accompanied by testimonies of the unanimous desire oi' the party that Mr. Mnsscy should long !>B spared to guide its destinies. A caucus mc.pf.ins of the parly was held last evening, and attended by all but two members, who hud been! called nway from Wellington on private business. The meeting was marked by unabated confidence, inid a feeling that the defeat of Hie party was only temporary. The idea that any Reform mcmlier was looking for a party with higher principles was ridiculed. It is evident from thn character of the party meetings that have been held since the general elections Hint never before in its history has (he party been more solid or loyal than it is nt Hie present time. A rumour has boon industriously circulated to-dny that two members of the party propose to transfer their support to the Liberal party. There is not a shadow of foundation for the statement.

THE PREMIER'S PLEDGE. PROROGATION'A FLOUTING OF TTlfl COUNTRY. (By Teleirranh.-Spccial Correspondents Cliristchurch, February 28. The "Press" will say to-morrow:— "It is due to the House and the country that Sir Joseph Ward should ntalo wiiat he intends to do in regard to nil promise to resign. It cannot be contended that up to the present Parliament nas discharged the purpose- for which it was specially summoned. That purpose was to furnish his Excellency with responsible, advisers possessing Hie confidence both, of the House aiid of the country, so that the administration of Hie public nflairs might be carried on in a conslifutioniil wav. ... It is an undoubted fact that at the general election the country showed its want of confidence in the. Ministry by returning « majority pledged to its defeat. By purposely delaying the vote on. tho amendment to the address, and by Hie use of arts in which it hns proved ilse.lt extraordinarily adept, the Ministry has succeeded in getting at least two, if not Ihree, of the members so returned, to pVove fnUe to their pledges within a. few weeks of these having been given. Hβ' have yet to learn that in liaving > succeeded' in thus suborning the peoples representatives, the Government hive proved Hint they have regaino-l tlio lust confidence of tho electors, or Hull' t.l'.'.r have deserved to regain it. But tin? is not nil. The Prime Minister has publicly pledged himself to re-v\'-n his position—an act winch carries with it the resignation of jil.i colleagues. Vurthe'rlHore., one "' the voles'by which the Government are temporarily kept in office was expressly Hint nvowedlv given in consideration of lh« Prime Minister's.pledge that he., would: resign In !hesi> circumstances, can it be seriously urged' Hint Parliament, has famished 'his Excellency witii ndvwrn raiistitutionallv callable of--advising, mm to entry out. important nets of State? . , . the Governor of New Zealand at th 6 present time hn« as his ostensible adviser-, nn-vely Hie Shattered Remnants of a Miiiisln'.'iii whieli the people havo pxprewlv declared they no longer have confidence, headed bv si Prime Minister who has admitted, and, indwd. emphasised that fad by piedgin;: himself to resign. Clenrlv it is the duty of Sir .lospplt Ward' to carry out his pledge without delay, so that (he formation of a proper .Ministry may proceed in the. proper constitutional wny." . , The "Press" goes on In mention Hie rumuur that the Prime M-ini'tcr has no 'intention of respecting his pledge; and. after insisting that he must resign, and let events follow, it points out Hint if he docs not. a prorogation, .will .mean I hat the Ministry, such as it is. will be tree for the next four months from Hie control of Parliament, and practically lre« to make any appointments it chooses. Tt will al«) be in full cniilvol of our finance, and of every Department of tie Public Service.' In other words, (lit verdict of Hie counlrv (hat the Ministi'T hns forfeited its confidence to do any nf these things will be Honied ami set at nought. If that is allowed, surely representative government will have ten made a farce, and its jiroplf lvdliec-d to the lowest stage of humiliation. .