THE POLITICAL CRISIS.

Dominion, Volume 5, Issue 1368, 20 February 1912, Page 6

THE POLITICAL CRISIS.

FATE OF THE MINISTRY.

THE DECISIVE DEBATE BEGINS TO-DAY.

PLANS OF THE " LIBERALS-"

WILL CHOOSE A NEW LEADER,

'"•>■> iiolm'p Mint will determine the fate of the Ward Administration -will be commenced in tho House of Representatives i»->.. *j'. 1-m.er Uie preliminary business the customary motion to present a respectful address in reply to the Governor's Speech will be moved by Mr. V. ll.'Kcnd (Bay or' Islands) and seconded.by Mr. J. C. Tlibmson '(Wallace). Each of these members may speak for an hour. Mr. Massey will speak next, and may therefore be expected to rise Inte. in the afternoon. At tho closo of his speech, he will move an amendment that the address fhouid represent to ; the, Governor that liis Excellency's advisers do not possess the confidence-of tho House.

Any estimate of tho length to which the debate will extend is necessarily merely speculation, as Ministerialists .adhere to their determination to disclose nothing regarding the party's plans. Tho debate, may last three days, or it may last two weeks.- That may depend largely upon the character of the speech made by Sir Joseph Ward. .. Should he introduce fresh matter requiring to bo' nnswercd tho debate may be protracted. Some members are urging that the House should sit in the mornings in order to get the,,-session over, soon, aud let the farming'members return to their harvest fields, but there seems littlo likelihood cf this being done. .< Hostile Criticism.

The defeat, of the AVard Administration by the division with which the debate will. conclude is now regarded.as almost assured. Any hopes that ' were entertained by Government members that their party would be strengthened by the extraordinary tactical move conncctod with the Speech from the Throne have been dissipated by the unanimity with which that artifice has been condemned throughout the Dominion. The manifesto for which the Governor was made the mouthpiece- has been received with hostilo criticism-.by every section of • the press, and this extraordinary agreement-among the- journalistic leaders of public opinion, probably unprecedented in tho history of the Dominion, has created • a profound ■ sensation in tho lobbies. The opinions, of > the leading newspapers are bracketed with the.possibilities of the situation in almost every lobby conversation. ■ Looking for a Leader. Having accepted the certainty of defeat; tho "Liboral" party is easting round for -a leader trader whoso auspices it might put up a fight against the Administration, to- b? .formed;by Mr. Massejv Caution may dictate tho .'advisableness of alloVing.. a .'Reform ..Government' to .'assmno office and carry on the national business until the winter session, but this course will probably be . opposed by a largo section of the Ministerialists. SH' Joseph Ward will cease to be a political leader from the moment tho present tavern men t party retires to the Opposition'', benches'; : that' , ' 'is : 'a'' point upon which the party appears Jo be agreed. Members', oro already considering half a dozen of y their fellows, ..with a. view to deciding who may wear the Prime Minister's shoes most' Mr. G. I.aursnsnn (Lytleltou), formerly senior AVhip of'tho party, is mentioned as a likely man for tho position. His benchoiate, Mr: G. W. TJussoll (Avon), is also under review, and both these memb'ers, reputed aspirants to tho vacant portfolio ast session, are doubtless expected to figure in tlio "reconstructed Ministry," whicli represents the utmost, but now fading, hope'bf the party. Two members of the present Cabinet, the. Hon. J. A. Millar and thoHon. T. Mackenzie, are mentioned as /.prospective leaders of the party, but it appears "that- neither of them would command loyal and united support. There is said to %a a section which simply will not'have Mr. Millar as leader. It is proposed that Sir. Arthur Guinness should bo asked to step down from the Speaker's .chair in. order to. assume tho leadership of the party,'but tho'opinion is freely expressed that ho is unlikely to drop tho substance for the shadow.

Evidences of Dissension. Apart from the question of future leadership, there are already evidences of disfsonsion in the ranks cf the "Liberal" party. Its members.may be unanimous on the first vote, but thoy will certainly not be. of one mind on a second division. In any, lease, -'everything points to their beinjjUparV;d;;tue of selecting .a Prime , -. Minister, tor. : some time' to come: Ft will Abe ■jttfie.ssary for them—and - the tosk will .nqt baf. an easy select in Opposition : leader., ■ '■■ , "Mr.; Wilford. It has been suggested that Mr. WiU'ord may forfeit his seat through being absent for a whole session without leave, the supposition being that leave of absenco cannot bo givon until the inembor is sworn in. It is stated, however, that, there are ample precedents for granting leave under such circumstances,' and leave will no doubt be applied for. ■--•■• ) The Labour Members. Three of the Labour members—Messrs. Veitch, Robertson, and.Payne—conferred together yesterday for. several hours, but declined lo make any statement conccrnfnjr their deliberations. . , ■