The Dominion. MONDAY, JANUARY 29, 1912. THE NEW REICHSTAG.

Dominion, Volume 5, Issue 1349, 29 January 1912, Page 4

The Dominion. MONDAY, JANUARY 29, 1912. THE NEW REICHSTAG.

Events of the near future will probably show the German elections which were loiichided last week to be the inost important that have been held since the Constitution came into force. The final returns, published in our last issue, show that the partiesnipon which the present Administration can rely are reduced in the new Keichstag to a minority, while the Socialists, against whom the Government's electoral campaign was almost wholly directed, have now a larger share of representation'than any other party. They alone have gained by the elections; all other parties have lost, and the heaviest losers are the Conservatives,' upon whom the Government was accustomed especially to' rely. The Socialists have 110 members in the new Reichstag, and allied with them ai'c the 46 Radicals, while the 44 National Liberals are largely in sympathy With them. The total against the Government is thus reckoned at 200. On the other side, in a min-, ority of three, are the Centre party, 93; the Conservatives, 56;_ and the smaller parties; 48; making a total of 197. The National Liberals hold the balance of power, but even if they throw their weight altogether on the side of the Socialists, it does not follow that the presont Ministers will go Out of office, leaving Herr Bedel to hvximc Imperial Chancellor. The Gorman Constitution does not work that way. The Kaiser chooses the Ministers, and he alone can dismiss them. A Minister may resign, and a hostile majority in the lleichstag might make his path so difficult that there would be nO other course ppen to him. Thus Prince Bur.ow resigned in 1009, bccausethe "Blue-Black Block," which was formed at that time by the Conservatives allying themselves with the Centre or Clerical party, to the exclusion of the Liberals, did not suit his policy. His successor, Dr. von Bethmann-Hollweg. has ruled with the aid of the Blue-Black Block, but it is open to him now, if the Kaiser so wills, to remain in office, and have only such measures placed before the Reichstag as ho may expect the National Liberals, in addition to the Block, to Support. Unfortunately for him, that would involve a reversal of, an important feature of his own policy and a betrayal of the faithful Conservatives. They and he stand for a high protective tariff, including duties on foodstuffs; the National Liberals arc at one with the Socialists and Radicals in demanding reduced duties and cheaper food.

To realise how deep is the cleavage, one has but to recall the Chancellor s speech of October 2:s, which was regarded as the opening of the electoral campaign. Hα declared that the- agitation about dear food was a. wanton arid perilous attack on the existing economic system, which' the Government, as a matter of absolute conviction, was bound to uphold. Were they, he asked, to undermine the foundations of their system of national food, of finance, and national defence ? In this speech the Chancellor throw away all hopes of the co-operation of tho National Liberals at the elections. They have long believed that the protection of agriculture through the tariff was enriching Hie landowners .it (he ex-pense-of tho industrial population. One of tho most moderate of their Parliamentary leaders, Herr FuiirJiann, addressing-the Reichstag soon '?u I l ' , Cnan cellor's speech, said that the agrarian policy of the ConServativps had created a feeling of hatred in the towns towards a section of the agricultural population. I hen, in words which the event has remarkably justified, he turned towards Hit- Conservatives and Agrarians, and exclaimed: "When Vou observe during the elections the presence of Radicalism in tho country to an extent hitherto unparalleled, when you see that the composition of the next Reichstag is such that in your opinion it imperils our system of Protective tariffs, you will kindly beat, your breasts and cry, 'Mca culjiu, n>ca maxima rulpa'?' The .progress of the election campaign Bceins to have shown the Chancellor that tho.feeling of the townspeople was as Heru Fuimmanx had described it, for tho Government's election manifesto was nothing but an attack on the Socialists, while extreme language was used in many quarters for the purpose of stirring up hatred of England and exploiting it, at the polls. The special objeot. of this propaganda was to bring the National Liberals and Radicals into tho ''block" against the Socialists for the second ballots. It failed, and so desperate did the situation become, Uiiif. after tlic. Ccnti-r. and Connr.!vativ« liwlnra hud orcicrr/!

their parties to abstain from voting when the choice, lay between .Radicals and Socialists, Hkkk Kaempf, a Radical, was elected for one oi the Berlin divisions by means of Conservative votes, the Chancellor and all the Ministers voting for him as against his Socialist opponent. A scries of news items that have come to hand during the last few weeks go to show that the Chancellor's policy is, or was. to accelerate the shipbuilding programme and further develop the Army, and to raise the money for these purposes by means of new, or higher, protective duties. It now appears certain that this cannot be done, b cause the only fresh taxation which a majority of the new Reichstag would canction, must be direct taxation on incomes or property. Butsuch taxation would be distasteful to the Centre and still more so to the Conservatives, while, if it were clearly for armaments, it would not command the support of the Socialists. Possibly, the Chancellor will be found bringing down his proposals in a modified form, and if they are radically amended by the Reichstag, the Kaisek may use his constitutional power to delay the promulgation of the new laws. The situation may easily develop into a constitutional struggle, in which the Socialists will seek, not without hope of success, to obtain that share of control to v/hich_ their numbers, from a democratic point of view, clearly entitle them. The outcome, in any case, will to some extent affect intcrnationa] relations, and Germany may become a less troublesome neighbour to Great Britain.