IS IT PEACE?

Dominion, Volume 5, Issue 1332, 9 January 1912, Page 4

IS IT PEACE?

The Saloniki correspondent of tho London Times, according to a cable message which we published yesterday, has stated that there is every reason to believe that the general conditions of peace betweon Italy and Turkey have been arranged, and that hostilities will shortly terminate. If the information turns out to be correct, it wiU probably transpire that the cessation of the war is due to the pressure of neutral Powers and to the financial difficulties of the Ottoman Government, rather than to the events of the war in Tripoli. Italy has not found the annexation of Turkey's African province the easy task she expected. The Italian officer who described the campaign beforehand as "the triumphal march of the descendants of the Scipios" probably expressed without much exaggeration the view of his Government. Italy relied largely upon the hostility of.the Arabs of the Tripolitan interior towards their Turkish masters, and what she did not properly estimate was the uniting power of the religion of Islam in a war against Christiana. The result has been that although Tripoli was feebly garrisoned, and Italy held the sea, there has been a fierce and destructive war, and the "annexation" of Tripoli has been merely nominal. Dβ. E. J. Dillon, in the course of his monthly foreign article in the Contemporary Review for December, stated that the Turks seemed to have resolved to decline to discuss any terms of peace that did not include the nominal retention of Tripoli. He had discussed the situation with members of both political parties in Constantinople, and with high officers of State, and he found amongst them a general belief that the resistance to Italy could be prolonged so as to make the price of annexation prohibitive. The Italians, they pointed out, had already paid dearly, in men and money, for the coast-line, and had not even then secured it. Could they stand the strain of the further tremendous efforts that they must makc'if they would occupy a country five times as large as Italy itself? Without occupation, the Turkish statesmen insisted, there could be no effective annexation.

"When Turkey is asked to recognise tho annexation without waiting for pfl'ectiro occupation, she is really being a.«ked to 'help the Italians to carry out their predatory scheme to rob herself. And no nation would listen to such «. proposal. Her (lifhcultHs render her desperate. For (he fact is that Italy cannot hope effectively to occupy Tripoli during tlio campaign, the. obstacles being iiistmnuiiiitiib.'e. J-rom ten to fifteen years' work in warn time might perhaps 'solve the problem. . . . Railways, clertriu motors machinery, artesion wells, and, above all labour and rapital, are necessary. Tliov : constitute the open se-nmc Ig" inalcriiil prosperity. ,.

In short, Italy, it. was contonclcil, had not gone the right way to work to possess herself of Tripoli. Sim should have imitated the oxiinipk of Japan and Eusaia in Manchuria, or

of other Governments which have carried out a policy of "peaceful penetration." She had but touched one nnd of her neighbour's property and called out to the owner to hand hoi- the remainder. Such was the view propounded by prominent statesmen and politicians among the Turks, and Dit. Dillon adds that not all the Governments of the Great Powers disagree with it or disapprove of it. He points, however, to several causes that may weaken the resolution of. the Ottoman statesmen. Although the war is more costly to Italy, it does involve large and constant outlay on the part of Turkey. Her trade is stagnant, credit, is suffering, money is being withdrawn from enterprises, and banks arc suspending payment. The national credit may be involved in the decline of private solvency, and when the Government needs a new loan, probably not later than March, the position will become acute. The terms of the loan might be made to include acceptance of Italy's offer to negotiate for peace on the basis of annexation. It would be to the interest of the neutral Powers to cause such pressure to bo exerted. They also are losers by the war, and therefore desirous of seeing it ended. "Maritime insurance rates have gone up, commerce in various parts of the Continent is slack, some branches c.f industry there are wholly stagnant/' This sort of thing will not be allowed to go on. The natural way to stop it is to press one of the belligerents to accept a compromise. To such pressure Turkey would yield sooner than Italy, for not only is she weaker, but she has less at stake. The very existence of Italy as a great Power turns upon the struggle. "If her young army failed to effect annexation, it is very doubtful whethe' she could keep her present place in the hierarchy of European States." Dr. Dillon, therefore, believes that Italy will, if necessary, make every conceivable sacrifice, but will have her way at last. The news that the general terms of a peace have been arranged is not, so far as it goes, inconsistent with his forecast, and it seems probable that we shall soon learn that the compromise which has been made is favourable to Italy, but if the annexation of Tripoli is to become effective Italy will still have before, her a task that may occupy \nany years of peace.