THE EUROPEAN SITUATION.

Dominion, Volume 5, Issue 1317, 21 December 1911, Page 4

THE EUROPEAN SITUATION.

The war clouds which, of lata have seemed to lower somewhat menacingly over the nations ol Europe, by'common consent have now lifted, and a period of relative brightness and of calm is predicted. Germany and France are understood to be gradually approaching an agreement with regard to Morocco, and the minor Powers of the Continent appear to have largely overcome their by no means unreasonable alarm. The world is without full and authentic information on the subject; but it would seem that, at one stage of the Morocco controversy, genuine preparations were made for the outbreak of war. Viewing the position of Germany in Europe at the present time, and the absurdly extravagant nature of her claims against France, we, from the first, found it almost impossible to believe that the Kaiser would attack France and thus be responsible for creating, in all probability, a -European conflagration. The two principal considerations which must have weighed with every reader who has studied the situation at all closely were: 'first, that the refusal of Germany's so-called compensation and of all her preposterous claims nowise affected the vital interests of Germany; and second, that had Germany invaded France, she would, to all appearance, not only have done so alone and unaided, but also have, brought against her the combined naval and military forces of Russia and of Great .Britain. Still, the fact could not lie concealed, that one false step, an error on tho part of even some subordinate official, might have precipitated hostilities. This possibility was apparently realised by the European Powers, both great and small. Great Britain, France, Russia, Germany, and Austria-Hungary, we are now informed, were prepared for immediate mobilisation. Belgium, Denmark, ancl Switzerland took steps to guard against invasion. Holland—which Germany's inspired press recently desired the world to believe was about to erect fortifications against England—strengthened her eastern fortresses, and dispatched her army to occupy the bridges over the Meuse—all to guard against a surprise attack by Germany, preliminary to her war with England. • The present placc of Germany among the Powers »of Europe is worthy of careful study. It would seem that Germany occupies a position little short of absolute isolation. During the last thirty years, forces—almost imperceptible but none the less powerful—have been at work, transforming the internal policies, as well as the relative positions, of the great Potters of Europe. Germany has abandoned the views of'BiSJi.tncK, that the friendship of Great Britain was necessary to him it', carrying out his European policy. That astute and far-seeing diplomat frequently expressed fears that that friendship would be impossible were Germany to persist, in a, naval programme beyond the needs of her commerce or her defences against France, or possibly against I'rance and Russia. German policy has not_ been conspicuously successful during, the period named, and her diplomacy has but few fruits to show for its remarkable activity. A recent writer in the Fnrtiiir/ltlhi Review discussing Anglo-German relations wisely observes: "A great navy, whatever the friendly attitude of the country to which it belongs, is it possible menace to the vital interests of Great Britain, and though no one can contest the right of any country to construct such a navy, it can only do so at the risk of British suspicions and of the appraisement of every _ development of its overseas activities and of its foreign policy generally ou the assumption of its possible enmity. This then is the dilemma of ("ierman policy which places all such incidents as that, of Agadir outside the hounds: of judicial discussion," Just as Germany has forsaken Iter conceptions regarding Great Britain's friendship, so has the opinion of AustriaHungary changed respecting Russia's enmity. In 187S the Berlin Congress deprived Russia of Bosnia and Herzegovina, handing them over to Austria-Hungary in spite of Russia's claims as the outcome of the Russo:Turkish war. It was the haunting dread of Russia's power and vengeance that, a year later, drove Austria-Hungary to join with Germany and lay the foundation of what afterwards became the Triple Alliance.

Austria-Hungary, since Japan's successes, has lost, her former fears of Russia, and, in spite of C'oi'nt Aeeexthal's coup dc nw'ilre of 1909, I he relations between the two countries are described as those of good friendship. With the menace removed' from her north-eastern borders Austria-Hungary has lost her principal, if not her sole, reason for being a member of the Triple Alliance. New factors, equally important, have arisen also in Italy. France's occupation of Tunis in 1881 raised a storm of indignation throughout Italy, the latter thinking that her claims upon that country were superior to those of her powerful neighbour on the Mediterranean. The relations—commercial as well as diplomatic—betwixt the two _ countries bccame rapidly so strained that Italy sought safety from France by joining the AustroGerman Alliance. To-day, France and Italy arc excellent friends, and here also, the Triple Alliance has lost its rahon d'etre. Indeed,' so thoroughly has Italian feeling chaugcd since then that AustriaHungary is now looked upon, not as the ally, but as the enemy, of Italy. Distrust clearly marks Italy's recent removal of her fleet from harbours facing France to harbours facing Austria-Hungary. The Adriatic before long will become the headquarters of the Italian, fleet. As Italy's eastern coast possesses no strong natural harbours, the now inconvenient port of Taranto, near Brindisi, is, at immense cost, being converted into a strongly-forli-iii-d' war harbour. In addition, all along the Adriatic, bases for torpedo boats are being constructed, at Ancona, Porto Corsini, Isole del Trcmiti. Barletta, and other points, which would be selected for this purpose by reason alone of r.xtremo urgency. Not only does the disposal

ot Italy's fleet display the direction nf Italian sentiment; her land frontiers are also in a state of preparation to repel the enemy. On both sides of the line dividing Italy from Austria are great, modern fortresses ancl fortifications built at a heavy cost to both countries. Facts such as these demonstrate that the situation in Europe is not only undergoing, hut has also already undergone, changes of immense and most far-reaching importance.