The Domonion. SATURDAY, DECEMBER 18, 1911. THE POLITICAL SITUATION.

Dominion, Volume 5, Issue 1313, 16 December 1911, Page 4

The Domonion. SATURDAY, DECEMBER 18, 1911. THE POLITICAL SITUATION.

The state of political'parties as the result of the elections just-.com-pleted loaves room for disputation on some points, but on the main issue there can bs no doubt whatever, j The figures prove that the WARD Administration has lost the confidence of the country, and any patchcd-up arrangement which may bo made —and for ourselves we cannot sec that any such arrangement is possible—must quickly fall _ to pieces under the strain of conflicting interests and leave the Government in a hopeless minority. The Government has :J2_ pledged supporters. and in addition it can rcl.r on Mk. L. M. Ism for ccrtain, making its total strength 33. It claims also to have' the support of Mhssus. Rhodes and L'oates, Independents. Mr. Coates has distinctly stated that he will not support the Government unless it has a majority, and Mit. Rhodes has declared his independence of Minis- < terial control. Still, even if these three Independent candidates are treated as supporters of the Government, it still leaves the party only ! 35 strong. The fourth ''Independent," Mr. Atmoue, claims independence on ! any "abstract issue," but is pledged ; to vote against the AVard Administration on its land policy. The Nelson Colonist, a Ministerial journal, reviewing the platforms of the rival candidates on Thursday _ last, referred to Mn. Atmohe's attitude as follows:— Mr. Atmow's attacks on the Ooveramont eertainiy contain no lack of specific indictments upon which lie would evidently lis constrained to vote with tlio Opposition and possibly plate in jeopardy 'lie best interests of the people to protest which ho expr«<ssios so much concern. Tllo only definite statement wo bad from Mr. Atmore last night was that he would certainly vote against the Government on a motion of want of confidence in the land administration, and that, of course, is tho .most.' probable ground .on which such a motion would bo introduced. In these circumstances Mr. Athoee can hardly be classed as a Government supporter, although he would probably vote with Ministers on some issues. This then is tho total strength of the Government vote at present: Definite supporters 33 Doubtful 2 Very doubtful 1 Total SO As a-gainst this total of 36, the Reform party has a strength of 37 members pledged to its support. In addition, there are tho four Labour members and three Native members, the latter yet to be elected. Of the four Labour members, three are pledged to vote against the Ward Administration on a no-confidence motion, and tho fourth has been careful not to commit himself either way. Speaking at Wanganui on the eve of tho second ballots, Mn. Vbitctt, who was opposed by all the forces of the Government, said, referring to an attack which had been sprung on him at tho last moment by his opponent: 110 talked tho matter [tho question of his standing for Now Plymouth"] ovor with several gentlemen thero in a perfectly friendly way, but on finding ho wa3 wanted as a supporter of tho present Government, ho decided not to stand. . . . ire was prepared to leave the matter in the bonds of tho people of Wanganui, and all he nsl;«l was that they will bo fair to tlio workers becauso they should judge him on his merits. Tho real issue was: were they going to vote.for a supporter of tho prc«;nt Government, or for a Labour candidate pledged to turn tho Government out? Mn. Vkitcti in the frankest manner poasiblo tlion deelan kin intention if ekefcd to asaizt in tins twik 01

turning the Government out. of office. Mlt. 1 1 AYni:- the Independent labour candidate, who, so far a.s the returns lo hand show, has defeated Mlt. I'owi.ds, said at one of bis meetings after the first ballot: "At present the Opposition have a majority, and I am satisfied that after the M'coud ballot they will still have a majority. (Applause.) 'i'liey aro far more triio lo democratic principles, and will do infinitely mora for tlio workers Hunt the gingerbread aristocracy that has Ijrmvn up from Liberalism." Asked lo further explain these remarks, Mr. IVyno said: "I believe that the Opposition aro so anxious to clean up the terrible finance of this country, and Ihnt they realise, what the Government realised tot) lute, Hint Hie workers are a power behind tho ballot bin." (Applause.) In Olaki, Mr. Hobehtson also expressed himself as ready to vole against the Government on a no-con-ftdencc motion. A local Ministerial paper, the Ilorovhcnun Chronicle, referring yesterday to the result of tho second ballots, remarked: Regarding Mr. Robertson's election, it is quite fair comment to sny that Mr. Robertson was elccted not because of his Labour views, and not because of his Socialistic views. It was his advocacy of a lxiro majority on the licensing polls issue, and his undertaking to vote against tho Ward Government oil a no-coulidenco motion, that brought into one political bucket the elements of Opposition lire and Prohibition water which proved to bo his well-tried opponent's undoing. Hero then we have three Labour candidates pledged to vote against the Government, bringing tho voting strength of the Reform party on a no-confidence motion up to 40 _at least. This gives the party a majority of one in a House of SO, for the (Speaker would come from the ranks of the Government party. But in arriving at this estimate we have assumed that Messrs. Ataiojjk, Coates, and Rhodes will all voto for the Government, which is unl'kely: and we have also assumed that the three Native members will also be supporters of the present Ministry and vote with them, which is still more unlikely. One of the three Native members will certainly receive a post in the new Government in connection with Native affairs, so that at least one more vote must be added to the Reform party's total and ono deducted from the Government's total. Thus, on a no-confidence 'motion, the very best the Government could hope for would bo as follows: Government. Reform Party. Pledged votes ... ,1.1 Reform votes ... 37 Doubtful votes 2 Labour votes .... ;i Very doubtful 2 Native votes ... 1 Native votes ... t 33 11 Less Mr. Speaker 1 38 Majority against Government, 3. This places the position at its best from the Government's point of view. As a matter of fact, it is I much more likely that some of the doubtful, or Native votes, which are ! credited above to the Government, j will go to the Reform party and that on a no-confidence motion the | Government will be in a minority of " or 9. In these circumstances, the j i only courses open to Sut Joseph Ward are cither to at ouce tender | his resignation, or to advise his j Excellency the Governor to summon I ' Parliament to meet in January. The fact cannot be overlooked that whereas the Reform party is.a strong and united party, the Ministerialists are demoralised and some of their members aro held to it by the slenderest of ties. Thero is •. really nothing to hold the Government party together now that the spoils of office arc slipping from their grasp. The Ministry have no guiding principles; no definite policy; no ideals to stimulate and inspire their followers —nothing remains, after 20 years, but thc_ dregs and dross of a once great Liberal policy. On the other hand, the Reform party stands pledged to a clear and definite platform; it aspires to servo national interests, and not petty party and personal ends; it is enthusiastic because it has proved the merit of it; cause in a fight against tremendous odds, and victory has inspired it with 'further confidence to push forward with a progressive programmo for the public good; and above all it has the invigorating influence of new blood. During the past 4 years something like 28 new members have been added to its ranks—-2S out of the 37 who constitute its present official strength. In these circumstances it is not surprising that the Reform party stands strong and united, full of vigour and hope; with the whole future bright before it. The position of the Ward Government is hopeless. The Continuous Ministry has had a long innings and as is usually the case where Governments live over-long it lias ended badly. It remains to be seen whether Sir. Joseph Ward will rise to the_ occasion and depart from office. with dignity and a proper measure of regard for the responsibilities resting on him as leader of his party; or whether he will prefer to cling on till the last possible moment by such shifts and deviccs as may present themselves and by so doing drag his party and those associated with it into public contempt for all timo. All over the country the Ministerialist journals are calling on him to acknowledge the defeat which tho electors have placed upon him and his Government. He is perhaps entitled to wait for the return of the Native seats on Tues day nest, but after thev come to hand there will no longer be any excuse for further delay on his part in either sending in his resignation or advising his Excellency to summon Parliament to sit at the earliest convenient moment.