THE CANTERBURY SEATS.

Dominion, Volume 5, Issue 1303, 5 December 1911, Page 5

THE CANTERBURY SEATS.

IMPROVED OUTLOOK. Tho Christcliurch "Evening News" baa an interesting survey of t)ic political situation in Cunterbury, tho only province in which the Government's prospccts havo really seemed better than tho Kolorm parly's. "The reluctauco ,o£. suitable men to come" forward," says ,' tlio "Jie.ivt," "has left Christcliurch lagging in the rear ot tho JRei'orm movement, when in other parts of the country a splendid fight ia being put up. . As it is, the Government is likely to meet with a sevcro rebuff in this province. At . the present moment it can be truthfully said that there is only one Government seat, that looks absolutely tafp, and that is Lytteltou." Hurunui is by 110 means an easy thing for Sfr. Forbes, and it i* said that'nobed) will be greatly surprised if Mr. JU'Far lano succeeds in turning over the necessary 301) votes, lvaiapoi is already loot to Mr. Buddo, who, it is expected, niaj not even get into tho second ballot

Riccarlou is very open. The vigour and energy of Mr. Lnsur's campaign lias spread consternation in the 'Government camp, while the certainty tliat Mr. Sullivan .will pet a pretty solid Labour vote adds to their troubles. If Mr. Witty could fool, sure that ho will get the whole of tha Labour vote in the event of a nm off with Mr. Elisor, his mind would doubtless be much easier, but the workers have no tickets on the present Government, and many of them are likely to vote for throwing it out, particularly as Mi. Elisor has shown himself sympathetic towards them, and roady to help the worker get a fair deal. 11l EUesmere aud Sclwyn no change in the representation is expected. Botli seats are already held by the Ucform party. . In the city interest, of course, centres in Christchurch North, where personal rather than party considerations are determining the issue. It is fairly clear that Mr; lsitt, to hold the seat, must win outright on the first ballot, if there is a second ballot, with the reaction that is inevitable after Prohibition question is settled, Mr. Hall's.prospects would be very bright. As it is, his supporters are confident. They claim to have made great headway since the by-oloction, many electors having repented of their choice in August last. In the opinion of tlio writer, it is an even-money bet.

In Christchurch'East and Avon, the Government candidates ought to win, os their opponents are not very strong, but neither arc they, and anything may happen. Mr. D.w.v's chances aro better than Mr. Russell's, but tho confidence of the Labour party, and tho electioneering skill of Dr. Thicker, are not to bo despised. Mr. Davey should lead on the first ballot, and his prospects of leading on tho second will be improved if he can manage to shako off Mr.; Hunter on tho first. _ In Avon the licensing question is entering very strongly into tho camnaien. Mr. Jameson, tho young Kci'orm candidate, has made, up a lot of leeway, and lie could win if his supporters can get him over the first hurdle and put him into tho second ballot. On tho other hand if the second round is fouirlit between Mr Russell and Mr. M'Combs, there is just about enough cold water in Avon this time to drown the former. Christchurch South is furnishing an interesting contest botwoen Mr. Ell and Mr. Whiting. It is a. typically Labour constituency, and it is looking very favourably on tho Labour candidate. Mr. , 13 j*!° o'ose to tho Government to picas# his old Lahour supporters.